Sex with wife under 18 will be considered rape: Supreme Court

New Delhi, Jan 20: Surging inflation and slowing growth are raising serious concerns about the future growth prospects of the economy and as a remedial measure the government should resolve supply-side hurdles and ensure more stringent governance norms, a report said on Monday.

According to the Dun and Bradstreet Economy forecast, even though the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) turned positive in November 2019, it is likely to remain subdued.

"Slowdown in consumption and investment along with high inflationary pressures, geopolitical issues and uncertainty over the recovery of the economic growth are likely to keep IIP subdued," the report noted.

Dun and Bradstreet expect IIP to remain around 1.5-2.0 percent during December 2019.

As per government data, industrial output grew 1.8 percent in November, turning positive after three months of contraction, on account of growth in the manufacturing sector.

On the price front, uneven rainfall along with floods in many states and geopolitical issues have led to a surge in headline inflation even as demand remains muted.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December rose to about five-and-half year high of 7.35 percent from 5.54 percent in November, mainly driven by high vegetable prices.

"The sharp rise in inflation has constrained monetary policy stimulus while revenue shortfall has placed limits on the government expenditure," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

According to Singh, growth-supporting measures and deceleration in growth are likely to cause slippage in fiscal deficit target by a wider margin.

"The government should focus on taking small steps to address the slowdown; in particular, resolve the supply-side hurdles and ensure more stringent governance norms," Singh said.

Unless these concerns are addressed through a comprehensive policy framework, it will not be easy for India to clock a sustainable growth rate to become a USD 5 trillion economy, he added.

With the steep hike in excise duty in the past couple of months, an average consumer of petrol now pays over 275% in taxes to centre and states on a litre of the fuel.  The base price of petrol is just about Rs 18. The taxes are close to Rs 50 and the pump price is over Rs 72.

India imports 85% of all its crude oil demand.  After a steep hike in excise duty in the past two months despite a hold on daily price revisions by the oil public sector undertakings (PSUs), Indian consumers now pay 275% collectively in excise duty to state and centre. 

The central government hiked excise on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 and Rs 13 respectively last month. The excise duty on petrol is taxed around Rs 33-a-litre while the same on diesel it is Rs 32.

The Value-Added Tax (VAT) on both petrol and diesel is Rs 16.44 and Rs 16.26 respectively. Both the taxes together are around Rs 49 while it is sold at petrol pumps at 73-per-litre.

These two taxes cumulatively account for 69% of tax which is higher than anywhere else in the world. The same is taxed at 19% in the US, 47% in Japan, UK 62% and 63% in France. The government does not pass on the benefit of lower crude oil prices to the customer.

It is to be noted that Indian consumers continued to pay Rs 70-a-litre even when crude oil prices hit a paltry US $ 20-a-barrel on April 12.

Former finance minister and Congress leader recently took a jab at the Centre over rising prices stating, “Fuel selling prices raised twice in two days, following tax hikes two weeks ago. This time to benefit oil companies. Government is poor, it needs more taxes. Oil companies are poor, they need better prices. Only the poor and middle class are not poor, so they will pay”.