Shashi Tharoor sacked as Congress spokesperson

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Jun 19: Ten Indian Army soldiers including four officers were released by the China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on Friday capping three days of hard negotiations that followed the bloody battle at the eastern Ladakh’s Galwan valley on Monday.

The 10 jawans returned around 5.30 PM on Friday to Patrol Point 14 (PP-14) after Indian team leader Major Gen. Abhijit Bapat, the commanding officer of the Third Div made it clear to the Chinese that there couldn’t be any progress in the disengagement talks unless the soldiers were returned safely.

Asked to comment on the release of Indian soldiers, the Indian Army maintained silence. The force released a brief statement on Thursday stating that all its men were accounted for.

However, the extent of the brutal clash can be gauged from the fact that 76 Indian Army soldiers are still in the hospital out of which 58 soldiers have “minor injuries” and “should be back on duty within a week”, according to Army sources.

Return of the Indian soldiers has been the main point of negotiations for the last two days. The situation is now calmer at areas near PP-14 in the Galwan valley after the return of Indian soldiers even though large numbers of troops from both sides are still present in the area.

Meanwhile analysis of satellite images has revealed a large presence of Chinese troops in the northern banks of Pangong Tso, a disputed territory for years.

“In the past month, Chinese forces have become an overwhelming majority in the disputed areas (on the north bank of the 135 km long lake). Significant positions have been constructed between Fingers 4 and 5, including around 500 structures, fortified trenches and a new boat shed over 20 km further forward than previously. More structures appear to be under construction,” says a report published in the Strategist, the journal of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

“The scale and provocative nature of these new Chinese outposts is hard to overstate: 53 different forward positions have been built, including 19 that sit exactly on the ridge line separating Indian and Chinese patrols,” says the report, accompanied by satellite images showing overwhelming PLA presence.

The June 6 Corps Commander level meeting between the Indian and PLA armies did not result in a solution to the contentious muscle flexing by the Chinese on the shores of the Pangong lake. The meeting ended with the conclusion that more Lt Gen level talks between the two armies were needed to resolve such issues.

Mumbai, Jan 17: A 68-year-old convict of the 1993 Mumbai serial blasts case, Jalees Ansari, went missing on Thursday morning while being on parole, officials said.

Ansari, a resident of Mominpura in Agripada here who is serving a life term, is suspected to be involved in many bomb blast cases across the country, an official said.

He was on parole for 21 days from the Ajmer Central Prison, Rajasthan, and was expected to surrender before prison authorities on Friday, he said.

During the parole period, he was ordered to visit the Agripada Police Station everyday between 10.30 am and 12 pm to mark his attendance, he said.

However, Ansari did not visit the police station on Thursday during the designated time, the official said.

In the afternoon, his 35-year-old son Jaid Ansari approached the police station with a complaint about his “missing” father, he said.

According to the complaint, Jalees Ansari woke up in the early hoursand told family members he is going to offer namaz, but did not return home.

On his complaint, the Agripada Police registered a missing case, he said.

The Crime Branch of the Mumbai Police and the Maharashtra ATS have launched a massive manhunt to trace him, he said.

Jalees, who is known as Doctor Bomb, was allegedly connected with terror outfits like SIMI and Indian Mujahidin and taught terror groups how to make bombs, he said.

He was also questioned by the NIA in 2011 in connection with the 2008 bomb blast in Mumbai, he said.