Slowing Indian economy spells tough times ahead for the rupee

Agencies
November 7, 2019

Bengaluru, Nov 7: A slowing domestic economy will prevent India’s rupee from recouping this year’s losses against the dollar in 2020, with optimism around an easing in the US-China trade dispute not enough to give it a further boost, a Reuters poll showed.

After falling nearly 9 per cent in 2018, the Indian currency has shed another 4 per cent this year to touch a 2019 trough of 72.40 per dollar on Sept 3. It has since popped up over 2 per cent, along with other emerging market currencies, on hopes of a possible trade deal between the world’s two largest economies.

But nothing has been agreed yet, let alone a meeting scheduled.

A barrage of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India this year - five reductions in succession for a total of 135 basis points off the repo rate, now at 5.15 per cent - has done nothing concrete so far to revive a slowing Indian economy.

Neither have several government fiscal stimulus measures introduced this year, which have become a negative for the rupee’s outlook given it will be difficult for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to meet its fiscal deficit targets.

“We expect the rupee to weaken as risks of sluggish growth and fiscal slippage intensify,” said Rini Sen, India economist at ANZ.

“Stable portfolio flows led by equities and global cues like trade negotiations, on top of rate cuts, have led to bouts of optimism. However, we think the currency market is under-pricing downside risks to domestic growth.”

The November 1-6 Reuters poll of over 40 strategists predicted the rupee to weaken about 1.3 per cent to 71.90 against the greenback in 12 months from around 71.00 on Wednesday.

The RBI, the most aggressive major central bank in the world this year for easing, is expected to cut the repo rate at its sixth meeting in a row in December, a Reuters poll showed last month, which could put further pressure on the currency.

“Unlike the previous cuts, additional cuts could erode the allure of the rupee as a higher yielder, while (the) growth prospect remains a concern,” said Saktiandi Supaat, head of foreign exchange research at Maybank based in Singapore.

Indian economic growth has steadily slowed to a six-year low of 5.0 per cent in the April-June quarter from an 8.1 per cent peak in the January-March quarter of 2018 and recent business surveys indicate it will slow further.

While the year-ahead consensus in the latest poll was slightly stronger than 72.50 per dollar predicted last month, it reflects the currency’s gain over the past month.

However, nearly two-thirds of 24 common contributors in the October and November Reuters polls either downgraded or kept their year-ahead forecasts unchanged.

Currency speculators have cut short bets on the rupee to the lowest since mid-August, a separate Reuters poll showed.

The rupee’s outlook was also driven by renewed interest among foreign portfolio investors for Indian assets. They bought 160.69 billion rupees of Indian securities in October, the highest in six months, according to Foreign Portfolio Investors’ data.

“If whatever measures taken by the government so far do not result in improving the onshore growth scenario, then there is risk that whatever portfolio flows which have come so far might reverse...and could result in rupee weakness,” said Rohit Garg, emerging market FX strategist at BofAML based in Singapore.

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May 23,2020

Mangaluru, May 23: Criticising the Karnataka government's fresh protocol for management of Covid-19 as expensive, a prominent physician in the city has demanded its withdrawal.

According to Dr B Srinivas Kakkilaya, the protocol released by the Health and Family Welfare Department on May 15 enlists unnecessary and unconfirmed tests and treatments. 

The protocol has classified Covid-19 cases into three categories and has provided for hospitalisation of all three categories of patients, from asymptomatic to the most severely ill.

In a letter to the government, Dr Kakkilaya said: "The protocol suggests several investigations to be done right on the day of admission, including blood counts, liver and renal function tests, chest X Ray, ECG, CT scan of the chest, and other special investigations, all of which, if done, will cost Rs 25,000 per patient."

"In the coming days when lakhs of patients are likely to be infected with SARS CoV2, is it necessary and feasible to hospitalise and test all these patients at Rs 25,000 per person," he questioned.

The treatment options suggested in the protocol are also surprising, he pointed out. "The protocol recommends choloroquine, azithromycin, oseltamivir, zinc and vitamin C for all patients, from asymptomatic to the severely ill, and also anti coagulant injections for many patients. All these would cost at least Rs 5,000 per patient. For severe cases of Covid-19, many unproven and experimental treatments have been suggested, which are very expensive and highly questionable," Dr Kakkilaya notes.

Therefore, this protocol, he asserted was not evidence based and likely to do more harm than good. He said these unnecessarily expensive tests and allowing private companies to conduct trials on Covid-19 patients is likely to be misused by vested interests and must be immediately withdrawn, and instead, a protocol that is evidence-based, simple and avoiding unnecessary expenses, must be developed.

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News Network
March 31,2020

Patna, Mar 31: In arguably the first of its kind incident in the country, a young man in Bihar was beaten to death precisely because he had informed the district control room about two corona suspects who had arrived here in the State from Mumbai.

The incident took place in Sitamarhi in North Bihar where a 20-year-old youth Bablu Kumar was allegedly killed by Sudhir Mahto and Munna Mahto.

The two Mahtos had arrived from Mumbai to Sitamarhi around ten days back. Bablu, in the meantime, informed the district control room about the arrival of two persons from a State where a large number of people were afflicted with coronavirus.

A team of doctors on March 24 reached Runnisaidpur in Sitamarhi to examine the two suspects. Three days later, these two persons from Maharashtra tested negative.

But the incident (of informing control room and subsequent medial test) created such enmity between the family of Mahtos and Babloo that on Sunday when they found the 20-year-old young man sitting alone, they thrashed him so mercilessly that he died on the spot.

Shocked and grief-struck, Babloo’s father Vinod Singh eventually lodged an FIR with the police and named Sudhir Mahto, Munna Mahto, and their family members as accused in the killing of his son.

The police on Monday raided the place and arrested the Mahtos.

But then, this is not an isolated case of violence. In another incident that took place in Bihar’s Jehanabad district, a BDO Ajay Kumar and a police officer Chandrashekhar Kumar were attacked by fellow villagers when the officials reached there to quarantine those migrants who had reached there from Delhi. So angry were the villagers with the officials’ move to isolate the migrants that they smashed the window-panes of the government vehicles and attacked the officials.

The officials had to beat a hasty retreat. But they soon returned with additional police team which used brutal force and took local leaders into custody before restoring normalcy in the area.

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News Network
January 18,2020

Kozhikode, Jan 18: A "fifth-generation dynast" Rahul Gandhi has no chance in Indian politics against a "hard-working and self-made" Narendra Modi, and Kerala did a disastrous thing by electing the the Congress leader to Parliament, historian Ramachandra Guha said here on Friday.

Guha said the reduction of the Congress from a "great party" during the freedom movement to a "pathetic family firm" now is one of the reasons for the ascendency of Hindutva and jingoism in India.

"I have nothing against Rahul Gandhi personally. He is a decent fellow, very well-mannered. But young India does not want a fifth-generation dynast. If you Malyalis make the mistake of re-electing Rahul Gandhi in 2024 too, you are merely handing over an advantage to Narendra Modi," said Guha on the second day of the ongoing Kerala Literature Festival (KLF) during his talk, "Patriotism Vs Jingoism".

Addressing the crowd, full of Keralites, he said, "Kerala, you have done many wonderful things for India, but one of the disastrous thing you did was to elect Rahul Gandhi to Parliament."

"Narendra Modi's great advantage is that he is not Rahul Gandhi. He is self-made. He has run a state for 15 years, he has an administrative experience, he is incredibly hard working and he never takes holidays in Europe. Believe me I am saying all this in all seriousness," he said.

But, even if Rahul Gandhi was "much more intelligent, more hard-working, never took a holiday in Europe, as a fifth generation dynast he still will be at a disadvantage against a self-made person", the 61-year-old author said.

He took on Congress president Sonia Gandhi too who, he said, reminded him of the "late Mughal dynasty" and how aloof they were of the state of their kingdom.

"India is becoming more democratic and less feudal, and the Gandhis just don't realise this. You (Sonia) are in Delhi, your kingdom is shrinking more and more but still your chamchas (sycophants) are telling you that you are still the badshah," he said.

Further, he quoted his teacher and noted Indian sociologist Andre Beteille to describe the story of Nehru-Gandhi family as a classic "reversal of the famous Biblical injunction": the sins of the father will be visited upon seven successive generations.

"In the Nehru's case, it is the sins of the seven successive generations have been re-visited upon Nehru... look at the national debate today. Why is Nehru evoked everytime? Why does Modi always say Nehru ne Kashmir mein yeh kiya, China mein yeh kiya, Triple Talaq mein yeh kiye ... because Rahul Gandhi is there.

"Now if Rahul Gandhi disappears, Modi has to talk about his own policies and why they failed," he said.

According to Guha, "Hypocrisy of the Indian Left -- the fact that they loved other nations more than India", "rise of aggressive nationalism worldwide" and "the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in neighbouring countries" are some other reasons behind the evident leap of Hindutva in India in the recent times.

Historian William Dalrymple, novelists like Benyamin, Namita Gokhale, Chetan Bhagat and journalists Karan Thapar and Rajdeep Sardesai are among the many other writers who will be attending the four-day festival.

The focus theme of KLF 2020 is environment and climate change.

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