Slowing Indian economy spells tough times ahead for the rupee

Agencies
November 7, 2019

Bengaluru, Nov 7: A slowing domestic economy will prevent India’s rupee from recouping this year’s losses against the dollar in 2020, with optimism around an easing in the US-China trade dispute not enough to give it a further boost, a Reuters poll showed.

After falling nearly 9 per cent in 2018, the Indian currency has shed another 4 per cent this year to touch a 2019 trough of 72.40 per dollar on Sept 3. It has since popped up over 2 per cent, along with other emerging market currencies, on hopes of a possible trade deal between the world’s two largest economies.

But nothing has been agreed yet, let alone a meeting scheduled.

A barrage of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India this year - five reductions in succession for a total of 135 basis points off the repo rate, now at 5.15 per cent - has done nothing concrete so far to revive a slowing Indian economy.

Neither have several government fiscal stimulus measures introduced this year, which have become a negative for the rupee’s outlook given it will be difficult for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to meet its fiscal deficit targets.

“We expect the rupee to weaken as risks of sluggish growth and fiscal slippage intensify,” said Rini Sen, India economist at ANZ.

“Stable portfolio flows led by equities and global cues like trade negotiations, on top of rate cuts, have led to bouts of optimism. However, we think the currency market is under-pricing downside risks to domestic growth.”

The November 1-6 Reuters poll of over 40 strategists predicted the rupee to weaken about 1.3 per cent to 71.90 against the greenback in 12 months from around 71.00 on Wednesday.

The RBI, the most aggressive major central bank in the world this year for easing, is expected to cut the repo rate at its sixth meeting in a row in December, a Reuters poll showed last month, which could put further pressure on the currency.

“Unlike the previous cuts, additional cuts could erode the allure of the rupee as a higher yielder, while (the) growth prospect remains a concern,” said Saktiandi Supaat, head of foreign exchange research at Maybank based in Singapore.

Indian economic growth has steadily slowed to a six-year low of 5.0 per cent in the April-June quarter from an 8.1 per cent peak in the January-March quarter of 2018 and recent business surveys indicate it will slow further.

While the year-ahead consensus in the latest poll was slightly stronger than 72.50 per dollar predicted last month, it reflects the currency’s gain over the past month.

However, nearly two-thirds of 24 common contributors in the October and November Reuters polls either downgraded or kept their year-ahead forecasts unchanged.

Currency speculators have cut short bets on the rupee to the lowest since mid-August, a separate Reuters poll showed.

The rupee’s outlook was also driven by renewed interest among foreign portfolio investors for Indian assets. They bought 160.69 billion rupees of Indian securities in October, the highest in six months, according to Foreign Portfolio Investors’ data.

“If whatever measures taken by the government so far do not result in improving the onshore growth scenario, then there is risk that whatever portfolio flows which have come so far might reverse...and could result in rupee weakness,” said Rohit Garg, emerging market FX strategist at BofAML based in Singapore.

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News Network
April 15,2020

Bengaluru, Apr 15: The Opposition Congress in Karnataka on Wednesday accused the BJP government, headed by Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa, of showing discrimination in distribution of relief material to those affected by the lockdown, clamped to check the spread of Novel Coronavirus, by favouring constituencies represented by the ruling BJP Legislators.

Despite that, the party intends to extend full cooperation to the government during this hour of crisis without indulging in politics, it urged the administration to be “transparent”.

''We have had our (Congress) Task Force meeting today, during which we discussed several matters. There is a lot of difference between the government's talk and its deeds,'' KPCC President D K Shivakumar said.

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coastaldigest.com news network
June 13,2020

Mangaluru, Jun 13: Around people from Bhatkal, who were stranded in United Arab Emirates due to months of covid lockdown, finally reached their hometown today. A charter flight carrying these passengers took from the Ras Al Khaimah International Airport at 11:20 PM (UAE time) yesterday and landed at Mangaluru International Airport at 4.20 am today.

After completing all the formalities, they were taken to Bhatkal in five buses arranged by Bhatkali Jamaatul Muslimeen, Mangaluru. Two hotels and a college hostel have been booked for the institutional quarantine of the returnees. 

The passengers were received at the airport by Majlis E Islah wa Tanzeem executive members, Bhatkali Jamaat Ul Muslimeen executive members, and Bhatkal Muslim Youth Federation executive members. 

Ateequr Rahman Muniri, vice president of Majlis-e-Islah wa Tanzeem and owner of UAE based Nuha General Trading LLC, had taken the initiative of sending stranded citizens of Bhatkal and surrounding regions to back home from UAE.

“After we came to know about the problems of the NRIs stranded in UAE plans were made to charter flights to send them home. I received huge support from the Bhatkal community leaders and youth here in Dubai, who gave their complete cooperation and helped with their efforts in successfully chartering the first flight," Muniri said.

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Agencies
May 8,2020

Washington D.C., May 8: The prime time for brain development in a child's life is the first year, where the infant spends most of the time asleep. It is the time when neural connections form and sensory memories are encoded.

However, when sleep is disrupted, as occurs more often among children with autism, brain development may be affected, too.

New research led by the University of Washington finds that sleep problems in a baby's first 12 months may not only precede an autism diagnosis but also may be associated with altered growth trajectory in a key part of the brain, the hippocampus.

The study, which was published in the American Journal of Psychiatry, researchers report that in a sample of more than 400 taken of 6- to 12-month-old infants, those who were later diagnosed with autism were more likely to have had difficulty falling asleep.

It also states that this sleep difficulty was associated with altered growth trajectories in the hippocampus.

"The hippocampus is critical for learning and memory, and changes in the size of the hippocampus have been associated with poor sleep in adults and older children.

As many as 80 per cent of the children with autism spectrum disorder have sleep problems," said Annette Estes, director of the UW Autism Center and senior author of the study.

"In our clinical experience, parents have a lot of concerns about their children's sleep, and in our work on early autism intervention, we observed that sleep problems were holding children and families back," added Estes, who is also a UW professor of speech and hearing sciences.

"It could be that altered sleep is part-and-parcel of autism for some children. One clue is that behavioural interventions to improve sleep don't work for all children with autism, even when their parents are doing everything just right. This suggests that there may be a biological component to sleep problems for some children with autism," said Estes.

To consider links among sleep, brain development, and autism, researchers at the IBIS Network looked at MRI scans of 432 infants, surveyed parents about sleep patterns, and measured cognitive functioning using a standardized assessment.

At the outset of the study, infants were classified according to their risk for developing autism: Those who were at higher risk of developing autism -- about two-thirds of the study sample -- had an older sibling who had already been diagnosed.

Infant siblings of children with autism have a 20 per cent chance of developing autism spectrum disorder -- a much higher risk than children in the general population.

In the current study, 127 of the 432 infants were identified as "low risk" at the time the MRI scans were taken because they had no family history of autism.

They later evaluated all the participants at 24 months of age to determine whether they had developed autism. Of the roughly 300 children originally considered "high familial risk," 71 were diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder at that age.

Problems with sleep were more common among the infants later diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder, as were larger hippocampi. No other subcortical brain structures were affected, including the amygdala, which is responsible for certain emotions and aspects of memory, or the thalamus, a signal transmitter from the spinal cord to the cerebral cortex.

The authors note that while parents reported more sleep difficulties among infants who developed autism compared to those who did not, the differences were very subtle and only observed when looking at group averages across hundreds of infants.

Sleep patterns in the first years of life change rapidly as infants transition from sleeping around the clock to a more adult-like sleep/wake cycle. Until further research is completed, Estes said, it is not possible to interpret challenges with sleep as an early sign of increased risk for autism.

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