For some fans of Modi, so far, so disappointing

August 13, 2014

Modi fansNew Delhi, Aug 13: As an election campaigner, Narendra Modi promised sweeping market reforms to revive India's economy and put the country to work. As prime minister, he has dismayed admirers, apparently reverting to the script of the hapless government he defeated.

To some of the economists and business leaders who as his campaign cheerleaders dared to dream of a Thatcherite revolution, he seems not to be listening. Three months after his win, it is dawning on them that their views count for little.

"As of now, the momentum is lost. They might still recover it, but we have lost the moment," said Bibek Debroy, a prominent economist who co-wrote a book laying out a reform agenda that the new prime minister himself launched in June.

Debroy told Reuters that so far there had been no signs of the promised change at institutions sapped by graft and over-regulation that many Indians have grown to revile.

Back in the heady days of the election campaign, Modi and his supporters seemed much more in tune, all lambasting the last centre-left government for years of waste and policy paralysis and building expectations of a regime of "minimum government and maximum governance" that would unshackle key sectors of the economy from the state.

But now there is a sense that the 63-year-old Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) strongman, who made his reputation putting his home state Gujarat on a high growth path, has somehow stumbled in New Delhi.

To be fair, the government has a five-year term to achieve Modi's goal of transforming India into an economic and military power able to withstand the rise of China on its doorstep.

On Friday, Modi will make his first Independence Day speech from the ramparts of the Red Fort in Old Delhi, and the expectation within his party is that he may use the occasion to announce bold changes that have so far been absent.

According to economists at HSBC, the government has already moved with "unaccustomed alacrity" on a number of fronts, such as opening up the state railways to foreign investment and providing new guidelines for a more streamlined bureaucracy.

"But the stuff that will lift economic growth over time ... requires deft and delicate handling," they said this week, noting resistance to reform from the country's states and the challenges of pushing legislation through the upper house of parliament, where the BJP does not have a majority.

MORE OF THE SAME

Modi won India's biggest election mandate in three decades in May after promising to revive growth that has fallen below 5 percent, choking off job opportunities for the one million people who enter the workforce every month.

He dangled the prospect of new roads, factories, power lines, high-speed trains and even 100 new cities. So far, there has been little movement on any of these gigantic tasks, which will require an overhaul of India’s land acquisition laws, faster environmental clearances and an end to red tape.

He has refrained from cutting food aid that is estimated to cost 1 percent of gross domestic product, or tackling costly welfare programmes.

Last month, his government blocked a global trade reform pact, saying there must be movement on a parallel agreement on stockpiling that is necessary to run a programme to distribute cheap food, the world's largest.

A leader with such a strong mandate "should be making policy with conviction, not emulating tactics of a defunct government," Surjit Bhalla, an economist and bitter critic of the previous government, wrote in the Indian Express newspaper.

BJP leaders and strategists with ties to the Modi administration said the government had considered reforms to a $6 billion workfare scheme that guarantees 100 days of employment a year to the rural poor.

One idea was to take modest steps that would cut waste, stop unproductive work and tackle embezzlement, said a source with knowledge of the discussions within the government. But the government shrank back even from that, and actually increased funding for the scheme in its budget for fiscal 2014-15.

It was not clear who vetoed the changes, but the source said some were pointing the finger at India's powerful bureaucracy.

TWEETING BUT NOT TALKING

Modi himself has not been speaking much, and that has compounded the problem, said a member of his campaign team.

Modi the campaigner was everywhere, even appearing as an animated hologram in places he couldn't visit. Modi the premier has been low-profile, preferring to communicate through Twitter.

His reluctance to engage the media has drawn parallels with his reserved predecessor, Manmohan Singh, although the two men could hardly be more dissimilar.

"Manmohan Singh's silence was out of compulsion, Modi's by choice," said the election strategist.

Some of Modi's top-ranking supporters including top Columbia University economist Jagdish Bhagwati, who hailed his rise as a turning point for India, have yet to find a role in his team.

Bhagwati, who told Reuters in April that he expected a spot on an external council advising the prime minister, declined to comment on the government's performance so far, saying he was recovering from surgery.

He noted in an email, however, that there had been mixed reactions to Modi's first three months.

Arvind Panagariya, Bhagwati's protege at Columbia, had nothing to add to an article he wrote last month criticising Modi for continuing wasteful subsidies and sticking to a fiscal deficit target that he believes will throttle growth.

Panagariya has taken on a role advising the government of Rajasthan, a BJP-led state that has since the election rolled out the sort of ambitious reforms Modi fans had hoped he would embrace for the nation as a whole.

MODI THE CEO

While Modi is yet to unveil major policy initiatives, he has been unrelenting in his focus on making government accountable and holding his ministers to high standards of public probity.

Cabinet colleagues routinely field calls at the crack of dawn or late at night from the prime minister's office, often to check on work in progress.

Modi himself works 15-hour days and at weekends, and expects similar commitment from members of his government.

One minister was refused permission to go on a private trip abroad to attend his daughter's graduation. He was told that, if he really had to go, he should give up his post. Another, on his way to the airport for an official tour, was told to dress appropriately since he was representing his country.

"To be fair, Modi has been taking quite a few incremental measures, which will make it easier to do business in India," a banker said, on condition of anonymity.

"People pay little attention to nuts and bolts reforms as they don't make headlines, but they count a lot."

At least one prominent Western investor is voting with his feet.

U.S. real estate mogul Donald Trump said on Tuesday he planned "substantial investments" in Indian property and hotels, betting on the new government to revive economic growth.

"I do see India as a great place to invest, and I think the election made that even better," said Trump, in India to launch Trump Tower in Mumbai, his first project in the country's financial capital, in collaboration with India's Lodha Group.

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Agencies
May 12,2020

New Delhi, May 13: Prime Minister Narendra on Tuesday announced Rs 20 lakh crore special economic package for the country to be 'self-reliant' and deal with COVID-19.

"I announce a special economic package today. This will play an important role in the 'Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan.' The announcements made by the government over COVID, decisions of RBI and today's package totals to Rs 20 lakh crore. This is 10 per cent of India's GDP," said Prime Minister Modi in his address to the nation. The Prime Minister said that humanity would not accept defeat from the coronavirus but the people have to stay safe and move forward.

"We had never seen or heard about such a crisis ever before. This is definitely unimaginable for mankind. It is unprecedented. But humanity will not accept defeat from this virus. We have to not only protect ourselves but also move forward," he said.

Talking about the gravity of the virus, Modi said: "It has been four months the world is fighting COVID-19. More than 42 lakh people from different countries have been infected by COVID-19. More than 2.75 lakh people have lost their lives due to the virus. In India too many families have lost their dear ones, I express my condolences to them."

"Today when the entire world is in crisis, we will have to further firm our resolve," he added.

The Prime Minister on Monday held a video conference meeting with Chief Ministers of all states to discuss the road ahead in India's fight against COVID-19 and noted that he was of the firm view that measures needed during the third phase of lockdown will not be needed in the fourth phase.

Prime Minister Modi had said the need was to reduce the transmission rate of the disease and to increase public activity gradually while adhering to all the guidelines and efforts to be made towards achieving both these objectives.

The phase three of the lockdown is coming to an end on May 17.

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News Network
February 28,2020

Feb 28: The best economic tonic for the coronavirus shock is to contain its spread and worry about stimulus later, said Raghuram Rajan, former head of the Reserve Bank of India.

There’s little central banks can do, and while more government spending would help, the priority should be on convincing companies and households that the virus is under control, he said.

“People want to have a sense that there is a limit to the spread of this virus perhaps because of containment measures or because there is hope that some kind of viral solution can be found,” Rajan told Bloomberg Television’s Haidi Stroud Watts and Shery Ahn.

“At this point I would say the best thing that governments can do is to really fight the epidemic rather than worry about stimulus measures that comes later,” said Rajan, who is currently a professor at the Chicago Booth School of Business.

The spread of coronavirus is pushing the world economy toward its worst performance since the financial crisis more than a decade ago.

Bank of America Corp. economists warned clients Thursday that they now expect 2.8% global growth this year, the weakest since 2009.

“We have moved from extreme confidence in markets to extreme panic, all in the space of one week,” said Rajan, who previously was chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

The virus outbreak will force companies to rethink supply chains and overseas production facilities, he said.

“I think we will see a lot of rethinking on this, coming on the back of the trade disruption, now we have this,” Rajan said. “Globalization in production is going to be hit quite badly.”

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News Network
June 27,2020

Jun 27: Alittle-known Indian IT firm offered its hacking services to help clients spy on more than 10,000 email accounts over a period of seven years.

New Delhi-based BellTroX InfoTech Services targeted government officials in Europe, gambling tycoons in the Bahamas, and well-known investors in the United States including private equity giant KKR and short seller Muddy Waters, according to three former employees, outside researchers, and a trail of online evidence.

Aspects of BellTroX's hacking spree aimed at American targets are currently under investigation by U.S. law enforcement, five people familiar with the matter told Reuters. The U.S. Department of Justice declined to comment.

Reuters does not know the identity of BellTroX's clients. In a telephone interview, the company's owner, Sumit Gupta, declined to disclose who had hired him and denied any wrongdoing.

Muddy Waters founder Carson Block said he was "disappointed, but not surprised, to learn that we were likely targeted for hacking by a client of BellTroX." KKR declined to comment.

Researchers at internet watchdog group Citizen Lab, who spent more than two years mapping out the infrastructure used by the hackers, released a report that BellTroX employees were behind the espionage campaign.

"This is one of the largest spy-for-hire operations ever exposed," said Citizen Lab researcher John Scott-Railton.

Although they receive a fraction of the attention devoted to state-sponsored espionage groups or headline-grabbing heists, "cyber mercenary" services are widely used, he said. "Our investigation found that no sector is immune."

A cache of data reviewed by Reuters provides insight into the operation, detailing tens of thousands of malicious messages designed to trick victims into giving up their passwords that were sent by BellTroX between 2013 and 2020. The data was supplied on condition of anonymity by online service providers used by the hackers after Reuters alerted the firms to unusual patterns of activity on their platforms.

The data is effectively a digital hit list showing who was targeted and when. Reuters validated the data by checking it against emails received by the targets.

On the list: judges in South Africa, politicians in Mexico, lawyers in France and environmental groups in the United States. These dozens of people, among the thousands targeted by BellTroX, did not respond to messages or declined comment.

Reuters was not able to establish how many of the hacking attempts were successful.

BellTroX's Gupta was charged in a 2015 hacking case in which two U.S. private investigators admitted to paying him to hack the accounts of marketing executives. Gupta was declared a fugitive in 2017, although the U.S. Justice Department declined to comment on the current status of the case or whether an extradition request had been issued.

Speaking by phone from his home in New Delhi, Gupta denied hacking and said he had never been contacted by law enforcement. He said he had only ever helped private investigators download messages from email inboxes after they provided him with login details.

"I didn't help them access anything, I just helped them with downloading the mails and they provided me all the details," he told Reuters. "I am not aware how they got these details but I was just helping them with the technical support."

Reuters could not determine why the private investigators might need Gupta to download emails. Gupta did not return follow-up messages. Spokesmen for Delhi police and India's foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

HOROSCOPES AND PORNOGRAPHY

Operating from a small room above a shuttered tea stall in a west-Delhi retail complex, BellTroX bombarded its targets with tens of thousands of malicious emails, according to the data reviewed by Reuters. Some messages would imitate colleagues or relatives; others posed as Facebook login requests or graphic notifications to unsubscribe from pornography websites.

Fahmi Quadir's New York-based short selling firm Safkhet Capital was among 17 investment companies targeted by BellTroX between 2017 and 2019. She said she noticed a surge in suspicious emails in early 2018, shortly after she launched her fund.

Initially "it didn't seem necessarily malicious," Quadir said. "It was just horoscopes; then it escalated to pornography."

Eventually the hackers upped their game, sending her credible-sounding messages that looked like they came from her coworkers, other short sellers or members of her family. "They were even trying to emulate my sister," Quadir said, adding that she believes the attacks were unsuccessful.

U.S. advocacy groups were also repeatedly targeted. Among them were digital rights organizations Free Press and Fight for the Future, both of whom have lobbied for net neutrality. The groups said a small number of employee accounts were compromised, but the wider organizations' networks were untouched. The spying on those groups was detailed in a report by the Electronic Frontier Foundation in 2017, but has not been publicly tied to BellTroX until now.

Timothy Karr, a director at Free Press, said his organization "sees an uptick in breach attempts whenever we're engaged in heated and high-profile public policy debates." Evan Greer, deputy director of Fight for the Future, said: "When corporations and politicians can hire digital mercenaries to target civil society advocates, it undermines our democratic process."

While Reuters was not able to establish who hired BellTroX to carry out the hacking, two former employees said the company and others like it were usually contracted by private investigators on behalf of business rivals or political opponents.

Bart Santos of San Diego-based Bulldog Investigations was one of a dozen private detectives in the United States and Europe who told Reuters they had received unsolicited advertisements for hacking services out of India - including one from a person who described himself as a former BellTroX employee. The pitch offered to carry out "data penetration" and "email penetration."

Santos said he ignored those overtures, but could understand why some people didn't. "The Indian guys have a reputation for customer service," he said.

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