Sridevi was murdered, alleges Subramanian Swamy

From March through May, around 1 crore migrant workers fled India’s megacities, afraid to be unemployed, hungry and far from family during the world’s biggest anti-Covid-19 lockdown.

Now, as Asia’s third-largest economy slowly reopens, the effects of that massive relocation are rippling across the country. Urban industries don’t have enough workers to get back to capacity, and rural states worry that without the flow of remittances from the city, already poor families will be even worse off -- and a bigger strain on state coffers.

Meanwhile, migrant workers aren’t expected to return to the cities as long as the virus is spreading and work is uncertain. States are rolling out stimulus programs, but India’s economy is hurtling for its first contraction in more than 40 years, and without enough jobs, a volatile political climate gets more so.

“This will be a huge economic shock, especially for households of short-term, cyclical migrants, who tend to come from vulnerable, poor and low-caste and tribal backgrounds,” said Varun Aggarwal, a founder of India Migration Now, a research and advocacy group based in Mumbai.

In the first 15 days of India’s lockdown, domestic remittances dropped by 90%, according to Rishi Gupta, chief executive officer of Mumbai-based Fino Paytech Ltd., which operates the country’s biggest payments bank.

By the end of May, remittances were back to around 1750 rupees ($23), about half the pre-Covid average. Gupta’s not sure how soon it’ll fully recover. “Migrants are in no hurry to come back,” Gupta said. “They’re saying that they’re not thinking of going back at all.”

If workers stay in their home states long term, policymakers will have more than remittances to worry about. If consumption falls and the new surplus of labor drives wages down, Agarwal said, “there will also be a second-order shock to the local economy. Overall, not looking good.”

India announced a $277 billion stimulus package in May and followed it up with a $7 billion program aimed at creating jobs for 125 days for migrants in villages across 116 districts. Separately, local authorities are also looking for solutions.

Officials in Bihar have identified 2,500 acres of land that could be made available to investors, said Sushil Modi, deputy chief minister of Bihar, a state in east India. “We can use this crisis as an opportunity to speed up reforms,” he said.

The investors haven’t materialised yet, and in the meanwhile, state governments are relying on the national cash-for-work program that guarantees 100 days worth of wages per household.

Skilled workers don’t want to do manual labor offered through the program, and even if they did, says Amitabh Kundu of RIS, many think of it as beneath their station. “There will be an increase in social tensions,” he predicts. “Caste may again start playing a role. It’s absolute chaos.”

For skilled workers, initiatives vary:

* Uttar Pradesh, which received 3.2 million people, is compiling lists of skilled workers who need employment and trying to place them with local manufacturing and real estate industry associations. So far, the government says, it’s placed 300,000 people with construction and real estate firms.

* Bihar has placed returners in state-run infrastructure projects and hired others to stitch uniforms and make furniture for government-run schools, even as they waited in quarantine centres, said Pratyay Amrit, head of the state’s disaster management department.

* The eastern state of Odisha announced an urban wage employment program aimed at putting as many as 450,000 day labourers to work through September. Some 25,000 people have been employed, so far, under the scheme, G. Mathivathanan, principal secretary for housing and urban development said.

Attracting Investments

It’s not clear any of this will be enough to make a dent, says Ravi Srivastava, professor at New Delhi-based Institute of Human Development, adding that the states don’t have much of a track record on economic development.

“It was the failure of these states to improve governance and put development plans in place that led to the out-migration in the first place,” he said.

But officials and workers’ rights advocates see opportunity. Uttar Pradesh has established liaisons to encourage companies from the US, Japan and South Korea to establish manufacturing in the state. There and in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the government has made labour laws more friendly to employers, making it easier to hire and fire workers.

Modi, the minister from Bihar, said the migration may also give workers--historically a disenfranchised group--new power, particularly as urban centres struggle. “The way industries treated workers during the lockdown -- didn’t pay them, the living conditions were poor -- now these industries will realize the value of this force,” Modi said.

“In the days to come, labour will emerge as a force that can’t be ignored anymore,” he added. “That’s the new normal. We will work out how to ensure dignity, rights to our people who are going to work in other states.”

Bihar is due for elections by November, a vote that could be an early test of the mass migration’s political consequences. The state is currently governed by a coalition that includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. Amitabh Kundu, a fellow at the Research and Information System for Developing Countries, a New Delhi-based government think-tank, said migrant workers are likely to be angry voters.

“Chief ministers are telling these migrants that they will not have to go back for work,” he said. “But their capacity to do something miraculous in the next four to five months is doubtful. If they can retain even one-fourth of the migrants, I would call it a success.”

New Delhi, Jul 25: Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra on Saturday attacked the Yogi Adityanath government over its handling of the Covid-19 crisis, saying that at a time when there is an "explosive" rise in cases, the state dispensation's "no test is equal to no corona" policy can lead to a "more frightening situation".

In a letter to the Uttar Pradesh chief minister, the Congress general secretary said that the situation is getting serious and the battle against the pandemic cannot be fought just by publicity and managing news.

Priyanka Gandhi said she hopes the chief minister will take "big and effective" steps that will assure people that the government is committed to protect their lives and they will not be left to God for protection.

"By showing the fear of coronavirus, corruption is thriving. If this is not reined in, the battle against coronavirus will turn into a disaster," Priyanka Gandhi said.

Noting that 2,500 cases of coronavirus were reported in UP on Friday, she said almost all the metros were flooded with Covid-19 cases, but now even the villages were not unaffected by its spread.

"Quarantine centres in UP are in a pathetic state. In some places, the situation is so bad, that people are fearing mismanagement more than the coronavirus. Because of such a scenario, they are not stepping out of their homes for getting tested," Priyanka Gandhi said.

"This is a major failure of the government," she asserted.

The state government by believing in the "no test = no corona" mantra has adopted a low testing policy, she alleged in the letter written in Hindi.

"There is an explosive rise in Covid-19 cases. Till testing will not be increased in a transparent manner, the fight against the pandemic will be incomplete and the situation can become more frightening," she said.

"Your government claimed that there is provision for 1.5 lakh beds, but with only about 20,000 active infected cases, there is a scampering for beds," she said.

If there is a huge crowd in front of the hospitals, then why is the UP government not constructing temporary hospitals on the lines of those set up in Mumbai and Delhi, Priyanka Gandhi asked.

Availing medical facility is the fundamental right of every citizen, she asserted.

"The prime minister is a Member of Parliament from Varanasi, the defence minister is from Lucknow, many other Union ministers are from UP. Why can't temporary hospitals be opened in Varanasi, Lucknow, Agra etc." Priyanka Gandhi asked.

She suggested that temporary hospitals can be operated by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), the Army and the paramilitary, or if need be, the DRDO hospital can be brought to Lucknow.

Also, central facilities set up in Delhi can also be used for border districts, Priyanka Gandhi said, adding that their utilisation is not being maximised there.

Noting that home isolation was a good step, she said it should not be implemented in haste.

Informed decisions should be taken on key matters related to home isolation like what will be the arrangement for monitoring patients, who needs to be informed if the patient's condition worsens and what will the medical facilities cost in home isolation, she said.

What will be the arrangement for checking the temperature and oxygen level of the patients in home isolation, she further asked in the letter.

The government should do a complete mapping of it and give complete information at the local level to the public, Priyanka Gandhi said.

The Congress general secretary said that she realises, that often the state government feels that the Congress' suggestions are given only from a political point of view.

"This was evident from the response of your government while we were trying to get buses for UP workers who were walking home," she said.

"I want to assure you once again that protecting the health and life of the people of Uttar Pradesh is our biggest sentiment at this time. We are continuously striving with constructive support and a spirit of service," she said in the letter.

At this time when the pandemic is growing rapidly, the Congress stands with the people of UP and is ready to give full support to the state government, she said.

Tightening its grip over Uttar Pradesh, Covid-19 claimed a record 50 lives in the state on Friday as the deadly virus infected 2,667 people more in the largest single-day spike till date.

New Delhi, Feb 5: Taking on Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal after Shaheen Bagh shooter Kapil Baisala was identified as an AAP worker by police, BJP chief J P Nadda on Tuesday said it exposed the party and Kejriwal who were playing with the country's security.

The Aam Aadmi Party hit back, questioning the police investigation.

In a series of tweets, Nadda said people of the country and Delhi today have seen the "dirty face" of AAP.

"For political longing, Kejriwal and his people even sold the security of the country. Earlier, Kejriwal used to insult the Army and advocate terrorists, but today relations with those who carry out their terrorist activities came to light," he said.

Nadda said he wanted to make it clear to Kejriwal that this country is bigger than any election, any government, and "this nation will not forgive those who play with its security. Kejriwal and his entire team have been exposed. The people of Delhi will give a befitting reply".

He claimed the entire country has seen "photos of Imam Hussain, the MLA and former minister of the Delhi government, with a radical terrorist organisation, PFI".

Days before Delhi goes to polls, police claimed that Baisala is a member of the Aam Aadmi Party. They said Baisala joined the party in early 2019 along with his father.

Police said it had photos of Baisala purportedly joining AAP along with his father Gaje Singh last year.

AAP's Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh alleged that photos which were part of investigation were leaked to the BJP. He also said the party will approach the Election Commission to raise this issue, which has cropped up four days before the polling date.

"On whose instance, the police is giving statement? How did the photos which were part of the investigation reach the BJP? Before the news came out, Manoj Tiwari in the morning stated that the accused was from AAP. How did Manoj Tiwari get this news," Singh questioned in a press conference.

Union minister and BJP's in-charge for the Delhi polls, Prakash Javadekar, in a press conference alleged that "their (AAP's) designs are very clear from the beginning and they are trying every trick".

The whole conspiracy of AAP is to "divide society, cause fear in a community and create a vote bank," he charged.

Javadekar also claimed that photos of Baisala were recovered by police from his mobile phone although they were erased.

He also claimed that Baisala and his father were welcomed by Sanjay Singh at their joining of AAP.

"This proves AAP misleads youth and pushes them on the wrong path. AAP's strategy is to divide two communities, they want to instigate riots in Delhi," Javadekar alleged.

He further alleged that AAP leader Sanjay Singh had said violence would take place in Delhi. Their "conspiracy has been exposed by Delhi Police," he claimed.

"We condemn this politics of AAP," he said.

Javadekar also claimed this was "not an isolated incident" as AAP member Amanatullah Khan made a "very provocative speech" and the party supported Shaheen Bagh and did not give permission for the prosecution of members of the "tukde-tukde gang".

He hinted the BJP could approach the Election Commission against AAP over the issue.