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Subramanian calls note ban a draconian move, 86 pc currency in circulation withdrawn

Agencies
November 29, 2018

New Delhi, Nov 29: Former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government Arvind Subramanian on Thursday called the demonetisation move a massive, draconian, monetary shock and 'in one fell swoop, 86 per cent of the currency in circulation was withdrawn'.

Mr Subramanian, in his book Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy, said the real GDP growth was clearly affected by demonetisation. 

He said the growth had been slowing even before, but after demonetisation the slide accelerated. In the six quarters before demonetization, growth averaged 8 per cent and in the seven quarters after, it averaged about 6.8 per cent (with a four-quarter window, the relevant numbers are 8.1 per cent before and 6.2 per cent after).

“I don’t think anyone disputes that demonetization slowed growth. Rather, the debate has been about the size of the effect, whether it was 2 percentage points, or much less. After all, many other factors affected growth in this period, especially higher real interest rates, GST implementation and rising oil prices,” he added.

He added that prior to demonetisation, cash and GDP move closely together. Then, currency collapses and recovers but through all of this, the economy seems to have been chugging along almost unmindful of the currency in circulation. 

He said at the time (early 2017), the election in Uttar Pradesh -- India’s most populous state and the world’s eighth-largest ‘country-that-isn’t’— was widely seen as a verdict on demonetization, arguably the salient policy action of the government, personally and forcefully articulated by the prime minister.

The economist said the note ban was one of the unlikeliest economic experiments in modern Indian history.

Mr Subramanian was appointed the Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to government in October 2014. On 20 June 2018, Mr Subramanian stepped down before the scheduled end of his tenure owing to his family commitments.

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Agencies
August 6,2020

Mumbai, Aug 6: Former Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan said on Thursday that overly focusing on what sovereign rating agencies think can take one's eyes off what needs to be done for the economy.

"It is also important to convince both domestic and international investors that after the crisis associated with the pandemic is over, we will return to fiscal responsibility over the medium term, and the government should do more to convince them of that," Rajan told the Global Markets Forum.

India was placed under one of the strictest lockdowns in the world in late March for more than two months to stem the spread of the coronavirus, but cases have continued to rise steadily since the government eased restrictions in June, stymieing hopes of an economic recovery.

The government has announced several initiatives to help the poor and small- and medium-size businesses, but actual cash outgo from the government's measures has been estimated at just about 1% of GDP.

Several attribute the fiscal prudence to fear of a downgrade after Moody's cut India's rating and outlook in early June followed closely by a change in outlook from Fitch.

The central bank on its part too has reduced the key lending rate by 115 basis points on top of the 135 bps last year and is widely expected to cut rates by another 25 bps later on Thursday.

"The RBI and government have certainly been cooperating, but it seems like it is elsewhere, the ball is in the government's court to do more," Rajan said.

He said the RBI needs to focus on whether credit is reaching the stressed areas of the economy and also if the viable firms were able to access credit and not the unviable ones.

"And I think that's where it has to focus its attentions, because resources, as you well know, are limited in India today."

Recently analysts, however, have cited the growing possibility the RBI may prefer to pause and cut rates only at its October meeting.

Government officials too have suggested the possibility of any more fiscal stimulus being announced, would only come in the second half of the fiscal year, once a recovery has taken root and coronavirus cases have peaked.

"What India should focus on at this point is protecting its economic capabilities, so that when it has dealt with the virus it can go resume activity in a reasonable way. That should be the focus," Rajan said.

"And if it does that, there is no reason why the rating agencies will not see that as an appropriate policy".

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News Network
April 26,2020

New Delhi, Apr 26: The total count of coronavirus cases in the country surged to 26,917 on Sunday.

The total COVID-19 cases in the country are inclusive of 5,913 cured and discharged patients, one migrated, and 826 deaths. At present, there are 20,177 active COVID-19 cases in the country.

The Federation of Resident Doctors' Association (FORDA) wrote to the Union Health Minister, Dr Harsh Vardhan, seeking assistance regarding accommodation facilities for resident doctors advised for home quarantine.

In a letter to the Health Minister, the association stated that recently there have been reports of resident doctors from various hospitals who tested positive for COVID-19. As a consequence, their primary contacts who are mostly their colleagues and resident doctors, have been advised to be on home quarantine, the association added.

On the other hand, Maharashtra continues to have the largest number of COVID-19 positive cases at 7,628 . 1,076 persons have been cured in the state while 323 persons have died.

Fresh cases have been reported several states including West Bengal, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

The total number of cases in Indore has risen to 1,176, including 57 deaths.

While 133 deaths have been reported from Gujarat where the total number of cases spiked up to 3,071.

Kerala has seen a recovery rate of around 74 per cent as 338 out of the total 457 COVID-19 positive patients recovered in the state with only 4 fatalities.

Delhi has seen 2,625 COVID-19 positive cases and 54 deaths due to the pandemic.

Here's a quick read on the COVID-19 related updates:

1. A five-member Central team visited Telangana Director General of Police (DGP) office here on Sunday, to review the law and order situation in the state and oversee how the state police are ensuring the implementation of the lockdown.

2. Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research (PGIMER) Chandigarh and AIIMS Delhi and Bhopal will study the effectiveness of Mycobacterium w in critical COVID-19 patients.

3. Chandigarh-based Post- Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research (PGIMER) said that it has assessed the safety of mycobacterial w (Mw), an immunomodulator for leprosy, in four hospitalised patients of COVID-19, and has found no short-term adverse effect.

4. As many as 2,189 cases were lodged and 10,062 people have been arrested so far, for the breach of lockdown norms in Uttarakhand.

5. The Delhi High Court has directed that COVID-19 related tests should be made available to the general public at the lowest cost possible as the country is going through an unprecedented medical crisis affecting public order.

6. Bihar government has ordered two automatic RNA extraction machines, said the Principal Secretary of Health, Sanjay Kumar today.

7. Medical services at Babu Jagjivan Ram Hospital in the Jahangirpuri area have been closed and the hospital is being sanitised after 44 staff members including doctors were tested positive for COVID-19, Delhi Health Department said.

8. In order to support the frontline workers in the fight against COVID-19, Samsung and Google will be offering free phone repairs to health care workers and first responders.

9. Bhopal Division of Indian Railways has converted 74 railways coaches into isolation wards, said Sunil Dhingra, Senior Section Engineer of Bhopal Division.

10. Indian High Commission here on Sunday said two Air India and one Blue Dart flights will send about 78 tonnes of cargo to India as part of the 1 million PPE kits being sourced from Singapore-based company.

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Agencies
May 24,2020

Lucknow, May 24: The Yogi Adityanath government in Uttar Pradesh has banned Corona patients from keeping mobile phones inside isolation wards of COVID-19 hospitals in the state.

Patients admitted in dedicated L-2 and L-3 COVID hospitals will no longer will allowed to take mobile phones along with them in the isolation wards in order to check the spread of the infection.

According to an order issued by the state government late on Saturday night, two mobile phones will now be available with the ward in-charge of the COVID care centres so that patients and talk to their family members and administration if required.

Further, the orders specify that the mobile numbers should be communicated to the family members of the patients also.

Director General Medical Education, K.K. Gupta, who issued the order, has informed all concerned officials and directors of dedicated COVID hospitals.

"To facilitate the communication between COVID-19 patients admitted in clinics, with their family members, or anyone else, ensure that two dedicated mobile phones while adhering to infection prevention norms, are kept with ward in-charge of COVID care centre," the order said.

According to the latest data available on the website of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Uttar Pradesh now has 5,735 cases of Corona positive patients and the numbers have been growing steadily since the past ten days.

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