Subramanian calls note ban a draconian move, 86 pc currency in circulation withdrawn

Agencies
November 29, 2018

New Delhi, Nov 29: Former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government Arvind Subramanian on Thursday called the demonetisation move a massive, draconian, monetary shock and 'in one fell swoop, 86 per cent of the currency in circulation was withdrawn'.

Mr Subramanian, in his book Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy, said the real GDP growth was clearly affected by demonetisation. 

He said the growth had been slowing even before, but after demonetisation the slide accelerated. In the six quarters before demonetization, growth averaged 8 per cent and in the seven quarters after, it averaged about 6.8 per cent (with a four-quarter window, the relevant numbers are 8.1 per cent before and 6.2 per cent after).

“I don’t think anyone disputes that demonetization slowed growth. Rather, the debate has been about the size of the effect, whether it was 2 percentage points, or much less. After all, many other factors affected growth in this period, especially higher real interest rates, GST implementation and rising oil prices,” he added.

He added that prior to demonetisation, cash and GDP move closely together. Then, currency collapses and recovers but through all of this, the economy seems to have been chugging along almost unmindful of the currency in circulation. 

He said at the time (early 2017), the election in Uttar Pradesh -- India’s most populous state and the world’s eighth-largest ‘country-that-isn’t’— was widely seen as a verdict on demonetization, arguably the salient policy action of the government, personally and forcefully articulated by the prime minister.

The economist said the note ban was one of the unlikeliest economic experiments in modern Indian history.

Mr Subramanian was appointed the Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to government in October 2014. On 20 June 2018, Mr Subramanian stepped down before the scheduled end of his tenure owing to his family commitments.

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News Network
May 1,2020

Sangod, May 1: Claiming that "drinking alcohol will surely remove coronavirus from the throat", Congress MLA from Sangod, Bharat Singh Kundanpur, has in a letter to Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot urged the reopening of liquor stores in the state, which have been closed in the wake of nationwide lockdown.

"When coronavirus can be removed by washing hands with alcohol, then drinking alcohol will surely remove virus from the throat," Kundanpur wrote in his letter dated April 30.

He also alleged that the sale of illegal liquor and bootlegging had become rampant in the state due to the closure of liquor stores during the lockdown.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had on March 24 announced a 21-day nationwide lockdown as a precautionary measure to contain the spread of COVID-19. The lockdown was later extended till May 3.

As many as 2,617 COVID-19 cases have been reported in Rajasthan, as per the latest update by the state Health Department.

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Agencies
June 25,2020

Patna, Jun 25: At least 83 people died due to thunderstorms in Bihar in the last 24 hours, according to Chief Minister's Office.

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar announced Rs 4 lakhs each for the families of deceased.

Thirteen people died in Gopalganj, 8 each in Madhubani and Nawada, 6 each in Baghalpur and Siwan, 5 each in Darbhanga, Banka, East Champaran and 3 each in Khagaria and Aurangabad.

Due to thunderstorms, two people each lost their lives in West Champaran, Kishanganj, Jamui, Jahanabad, Purnia, Supaul, Buxar, Kaimur while one death each was reported in Samastipur, Shivhar, Saran, Sitamarhi and Madhepura.

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Agencies
June 15,2020

New Delhi, Jun 15: Average temperature of India experienced a rise of 0.7 degree Celsius, along with decline in rainfall, significant increase in frequency of very severe cyclonic storms and droughts in over a decade due to human activities, the Ministry of Earth Sciences in its research report said.

The contentions were made in a report issued by the ministry on the impact of climate change. It will be published by Union Minister Harsh Vardhan on June 19.

According to the report, "Since the middle of the twentieth century, India witnessed rise in temperature; decrease in monsoon; rise in extreme temperature and rainfall, droughts, and sea levels; and increase intensity of severe cyclones.

The report, prepared by researchers of the Centre for Climate Change Research, a cell under The Ministry's Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, further stated that there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have influenced these changes in regional climate.

India's average temperature has risen by around 0.7 degrees Celsius during 1901-2018, it said, adding that the rise is largely on account of GHG-induced warming and partially offset by forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols.

It states that the average temperature over India is projected to rise by 4.4 degrees Celsius, while the intensity of heat waves is likely to increase by 3-4 times by the end of the century.

In the 30-year period between 1986 and 2015, temperatures of the warmest day and the coldest night of the year have risen by about 0.63 degrees Celsius and 0.4 degree Celsius.

According to the report, by the end of the century, the temperatures of the warmest day and the coldest night are projected to rise by approximately 4.7 degrees Celsius and 5.5 degrees Celsius, respectively.

Alarmingly, sea surface temperature of the tropical Indian Ocean has also risen by one degrees Celsius on average during 1951-2015.

"The frequency of very severe cyclonic storms during the post-monsoon season has increased significantly (+1 event per decade) during the last two decades (2000-2018)," it added.

This came in the backdrop of Cyclone 'Amphan' and 'Nisarga' which made landfalls on May 20 and June 3 and killed several people, flattened villages, and destroyed farms.

"This is the first-ever climate change assessment report for India. This report will be very useful for policy makers, researchers, social scientists, economists, and students," said M. Rajeevan, secretary, the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

Besides this, the report also highlighted various other unnerving data on climate change in the country. Both the frequency and extent of droughts have increased significantly during 1951-2016.

The overall decrease of seasonal "summer monsoon rainfall" during the last 6-7 decades has led to an increased propensity for droughts over India.

"In particular, areas over central India, southwest coast, southern peninsula and north-eastern India have experienced more than 2 droughts per decade, on average, during this period. The area affected by drought has also increased by 1.3 per cent per decade over the same period."

The Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) also experienced a temperature rise of about 1.3 degree Celsius during 1951-2014.

Several areas of the Himalayas have experienced a declining trend in snowfall and also retreat of glaciers in recent decades. By the end of the twenty-first century, its annual mean surface temperature is projected to increase by about 5.2 degree Celsius.

The summer monsoon precipitation from June to September over India has also declined by around 6 per cent from 1951 to 2015, with notable decreases over the Indo-Gangetic Plains and the Western Ghats, the report further states.

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