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New Delhi, Jun 26: With looming uncertainty and no likelihood of an early economic recovery in sight, the bull run in gold prices is here to stay. Analysts expect domestic futures to touch ₹ 52,000 per 10 grams in the next few months, till Diwali.

Experts also predict that with the current trend, gold may reach historic levels around ₹ 65,000 per 10 grams in two years time.

Futures of the yellow metal have touched new highs in India off late. On Wednesday, the August contract of gold futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) touched an all-time high of Rs 48,589 per 10 grams.

It has, however corrected since and is currently trading at ₹ 48,057 on the MCX, higher by ₹ 116 or 0.24 per cent from its previous close.

Market experts are of the view that both domestic and international gold prices are yet not done breaching records and will touch new highs in days to come.

The resurgence in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection across the globe has added to the uncertainty and fears.

Speaking to media persons, Anuj Gupta, DVP for Commodities and Currencies Research at Angel Broking, noted: "In short term we are expecting it to reach ₹ 48,800-49,000 and for long term, we are expecting ₹ 51,000-Rs 52,000 till Diwali."

On the prices in the international market, he said that it may reach around $1,790 per ounce in the near term from the current levels of $1,762 and the long term, it is likely to be around $1,820-1,850 per ounce.

Gupta noted that with International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest downward revision of economic outlook, both global and of India, and the rising number of cases and high demand by gold exchange traded funds (ETF) have led to this record breaking rise in gold prices.

Covid-19 battered India's economy is projected to contract by 4.5 per cent this fiscal, according to the IMF and the global output is projected to decline by 4.9 per cent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the IMF's April forecast.

Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Financial Services, said that gold's safe haven appeal will remain on the higher side as there is little hope of a quick global economic recovery amid rising virus cases across the world.

"Increased geopolitical instability and an under-performing dollar also lift the metal's sentiments," he added.

According to Prathamesh Mallya, AVP Research, Non-Agro Commodities & Currencies at Angel Broking, said that with the global output to contract and the economies in a deeper recession than most anticipate, gold as an asset class is a safe bet for investors across the globe.

"Although, the physical demand has declined drastically due to the restrictions and lockdowns, the activity of global central banks and their net purchases of gold signal that uncertainty will continue for most of 2020," he said.

He was also of the view that in the international market price of the metal may move towards $1,850 per ounce and in the domestic market it is likely to move higher towards Rs 50,000 per 10 grams.

"The investment demand as seen in the net additions of ETF holdings also signals that gold will shine for a much longer time even if the pandemic is under control. Till then, keep buying gold, if not in physical form, but in digital form," Mallya added.

Industry insiders like Aditya Pethe, Director, WHP Jewellers said: "I basically feel that the current trend for the gold is bullish and for the coming next 2 years, it is likely to move upwards. No one can predict the exact price as currently the trend is on rise but it might change after 6 months. In general for the coming 6 months to one year, the gold prices are likely to cross $2,000 which comes to roughly Rs 55,000. For a temporary moment it may reduce, basically fluctuate as well but overall trend of gold is going to be bullish."

On his part, Ishu Datwani, Founder, Anmol Jewellers said: "Yes - it's very likely that the gold price could easily go up to Rs 60,000-Rs 65,000 in the next two years. There is also a possibility of it going up even more."

"A lot of banks have been buying gold and there is also a possibility that the Indian rupee will depreciate against the dollar. This and geopolitical reasons will cause bullishness in gold."

In Minneapolis, US an African American, George Floyd lost his life as the white policeman, Derek Chauvin, caught hold of him and put his knee on his neck. This is a technique developed by Israel police. For nine long minutes the knee of the while policeman was on the neck of George, who kept shouting, I can’t breathe.

Following this gruesome murder America erupted with protests, ‘Black lives matter’. The protestors were not just African Americans but also a large section of whites. Within US one police Chief apologized for the act of this. In a touching gesture of apology the police force came on its knees. This had reverberations in different parts of the World.

The act was the outcome of the remnants of the racial hatred against blacks by the whites. It is the hatred and the perceptions which are the roots of such acts of violence. What was also touching that the state of democracy in US is so deep that even the police apologized, the nation, whites and blacks, stood up as a sensitive collective against this violence.

US is not the only country where the brutal acts of violence torment the marginalized sections of society. In India there is a list of dalits, minorities and adivasis who are regularly subjected to such acts. But the reaction is very different. We have witnessed the case of Tabrez Ansari, who was tied to the pole by the mob and beaten ruthlessly. When he was taken to police station, police took enough time to take him to hospital and Tabrez died.

Mohsin Sheikh, a Pune techie was murdered by Hindu Rashtra Sena mob, the day Modi came to power in 2014. Afrazul was killed by Shambhulal Regar, videotaped the act released on social media. Regar believed that Muslims are indulging in love Jihad, so deserve such a fate. Mohammad Akhlaq is one among many names who were mob lynched on the issue of beef cow. The list can fill pages after pages.

Recently a young dalit boy was shot dead for the crime of entering a temple. In Una four dalits were stripped above waste and beaten mercilessly. Commenting on this act the Union Minister Ramvilas Paswan commented that it is a minor incident. Again the list of atrocities against dalits is long enough. The question is what Paswan is saying is the typical response to such gruesome murders and tortures. In US loss of one black life, created the democratic and humane response. In India there is a general silence in response to these atrocities. Some times after a good lapse of time, the Prime Minister will utter, ‘Mother Bharati has lost a son’. Most of the time victim is blamed. Some social groups raise their voice in some fora but by and large the deafening silence from the country is the norm.

India is regarded as the largest democracy. Democracy is the rule of law, and the ground on which the injustices are opposed. In America though the present President is insensitive person, but its institutions and processes of democratic articulations are strong. The institutions have deepened their roots and though prejudices may be guiding the actions of some of the officers like the killer of George, there are also police officers who can tell their President to shut up if he has nothing meaningful to say on the issue. The prejudices against Blacks may be prevalent and deep in character, still there are large average sections of society, who on the principles of ‘Black lives matter’. There are large sections of vocal population who can protest the violation of basic norms of democracy and humanism.

In India by contrast there are multiple reasons as to why the lives of Tabrez Ansari, Mohammad Akhlaq, Una dalit victims and their likes don’t matter. Though we claim that we are a democracy, insensitivity to injustices is on the rise. The strong propaganda against the people from margins has become so vicious during last few decades that any violence against them has become sort of a new normal. The large populace, though disturbed by such brutalities, is also fed the strong dose of biases against the victims. The communal forces have a great command over effective section of media and large section of social media, which generates Hate against these disadvantaged groups, thereby the response is muted, if at all.

As such also the process of deepening of our democracy has been weak. Democracy is a dynamic process; it’s not a fixed entity. Decades ago workers and dalits could protest for their rights. Now even if peasants make strong protests, dominant media presents it as blocking of traffic! How the roots of democracy are eroded and are visible in the form where the criticism of the ruling dispensation is labelled as anti National..

Our institutions have been eroded over a period of time, and these institutions coming to the rescue of the marginalized sections have been now become unthinkable. The outreach of communal, divisive ideology, the ideology which looks down on minorities, dalits and Adivasis has risen by leaps and bounds.

The democracy in India is gradually being turned in to a hollow shell, the rule of law being converted in to rule of an ideology, which does not have faith in Indian Constitution, which looks down upon pluralism and diversity of this country, which is more concerned for the privileges of the upper caste, rich and affluent. The crux of the matter is the weak nature of democracy, which was on way to become strong, but from decades of 1980s, as emotive issues took over, the strength of democracy started dwindling, and that’s when the murders of the types of George Floyd, become passé. One does complement the deeper roots of American democracy and its ability to protect the democratic institutions, which is not the case in India, where protests of the type, which were witnessed after George Floyd’s murder may be unthinkable, at least in the present times.