Sushil and Aware strike gold, Babita settles for silver

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

London, Feb 14: Former Sri Lanka skipper and current Marylebone Cricket Club's president Kumar Sangakkara has said that the 2009 Lahore terror attack taught him about his own character and values.

His remarks came as MCC arrived in Pakistan to play T20I matches against Lahore Qalandars. This will mark his first return to the Gaddafi Stadium, where a shocking atrocity took place when the Sri Lankan bus was attacked by terrorists.

The Sri Lankan team was on their way to Lahore's Gaddafi Stadium for a Test match with Pakistan in 2009 when terrorists from the Taliban and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) fired indiscriminately at their bus. The attack left eight people dead and injured seven Sri Lankan players and staff.

Ever since the incident, no cricket team toured Pakistan to play a cricket series, however, the landscape changed last year as Sri Lanka paid a visit to the country to play a series across formats. After that, even Bangladesh toured Pakistan and now there are talks of South Africa going to the country to play a series.

"I don't think I need any flashbacks, because I remember that day and those moments so very clearly. It's not something I relive or wallow in. But it's an experience you should never forget, because it gives you perspective in terms of life and sport, and you learn a lot about your own values and characters, and those of others," ESPN Cricinfo quoted Sangakkara as saying.

"I have no reservations about talking about it, it's not something that upsets me, but these sorts of experiences can only strengthen you. Today I consider myself very fortunate to be able to come back here to Lahore, and at the same time remember the sacrifice of all those who lost their lives that day," he added.

Sangakkara said that every human has his own way of dealing with such adversity.

"I think everyone deals with it in their own personal way. But at the same time, what really unites us is that you face adversity and you face challenges, and you have to get past it, and you've got to do that successfully. It's about moving forwards and upwards and being part of cricket. Being Sri Lankan you learn those lessons quite well, because, throughout our civil war, cricket was a unique vibe," Sangakkara said.

"We speak about the attack at various times. We even have a laugh about it, in terms of what we went through because it helps sometimes to look at it with a bit of humour, even though there was a tragic loss of life, and other serious injuries within that incident," he added.

MCC in the weeklong tour will take on Lahore Qalandars in a T20 match at the Gaddafi Stadium later today.

Kumar Sangakkara will lead the MCC's twelve-man squad for the tour, which includes Ravi Bopara, Roelof van der Merwe, Ross Whiteley among others.

Fixtures for the upcoming tour are as follows:

MCC vs Lahore Qalandars, T20I, Gaddafi Stadium, February 14

MCC vs Pakistan Shaheens, ODI, Aitchison College, February 16

MCC vs Northern, Aitchison College, T20I, February 17

MCC vs Multan Sultans, Aitchison College, T20I, February 19.

New Delhi, Jan 20: Surging inflation and slowing growth are raising serious concerns about the future growth prospects of the economy and as a remedial measure the government should resolve supply-side hurdles and ensure more stringent governance norms, a report said on Monday.

According to the Dun and Bradstreet Economy forecast, even though the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) turned positive in November 2019, it is likely to remain subdued.

"Slowdown in consumption and investment along with high inflationary pressures, geopolitical issues and uncertainty over the recovery of the economic growth are likely to keep IIP subdued," the report noted.

Dun and Bradstreet expect IIP to remain around 1.5-2.0 percent during December 2019.

As per government data, industrial output grew 1.8 percent in November, turning positive after three months of contraction, on account of growth in the manufacturing sector.

On the price front, uneven rainfall along with floods in many states and geopolitical issues have led to a surge in headline inflation even as demand remains muted.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December rose to about five-and-half year high of 7.35 percent from 5.54 percent in November, mainly driven by high vegetable prices.

"The sharp rise in inflation has constrained monetary policy stimulus while revenue shortfall has placed limits on the government expenditure," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

According to Singh, growth-supporting measures and deceleration in growth are likely to cause slippage in fiscal deficit target by a wider margin.

"The government should focus on taking small steps to address the slowdown; in particular, resolve the supply-side hurdles and ensure more stringent governance norms," Singh said.

Unless these concerns are addressed through a comprehensive policy framework, it will not be easy for India to clock a sustainable growth rate to become a USD 5 trillion economy, he added.