Swami Aseemanand, associates acquitted in 2007 Makkah Masjid terror attack case

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

New Delhi, Feb 10: Former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah's sister on Monday moved the Supreme Court to challenge his detention under the Public Safety Act.

Senior advocate Kapil Sibal, appearing for the petitioner, mentioned the matter for urgent listing before a bench headed by Justice N V Ramana.

Sibal told the bench that they have filed a habeas corpus petition challenging the detention of Abdullah under the PSA and the matter should be heard this week.

The bench agreed for urgent listing of the matter.

Mumbai, Apr 4: As many as six Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) personnel stationed at Mumbai airport in Maharashtra have tested positive for coronavirus, taking the total number of positive cases among the central force to 11. The first case of a CISF jawan being diagnosed with the viral disease was reported on March 28. 

After the first case, the armed police force reported four more cases of COVID-19 among the personnel stationed at the airport on Thursday. On the same day, the CISF collected samples of 146 staff and sent them to Kasturba hospital for testing. The results, which arrived on Friday, recorded six more COVID-19 cases among, reported news agency.

The personnel were posted at Kharghar adjoining Mumbai, a senior official told news agency.

As of now, there are 14 COVID-19 cases in Panvel Municipal Corporation (PMC) area in Mumbai. Kharghar comes under the civic body's jurisdiction.

All the 146 CISF personnel were shifted to a quarantine centre at a facility at Kamothe reported the Times of India.

Maharashtra reported 67 new COVID-19 cases, taking the total tally to 490. A total of 26 deaths have been reported in the state.  

In the meantime, the Centre on Friday said there is no shortage of medical supplies across the country to fight COVID-19 outbreak.

"The government of India is making sure that all the essential medical supplies are in place to fight COVID-19. Sixty-two lifeline Udan flights transported over 15.4 tons of essential medical supplies in the last five days," Union Minister for Chemical and Fertilisers DV Sadanada Gowda said in a tweet.

The government is also paying full attention to the manufacturing activities of essential items like pharmaceuticals and hospital devices. For this, over 200 units in Special Economic Zones (SEZs)  are operational, he added.

"A Central Control Room has also been set up for close monitoring of the distribution of essential medical items and to address logistic related issues," Gowda said.