Swamy links Sonia with chopper deal, Cong forces adjournments

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

New Delhi, May 23: Carrying a sack full of belongings and a backpack on shoulders daily wager Mohammed Sunny and his friend Mohammed Danish are determined to reach home for Eid in Bihar's Araria district, facing all odds stacked up against them.

Shahjehanpur native Adesh Singh with his wife and three little children, who left their residence in south Delhi three days ago, are still scrambling to reach home, haggling with taxi drivers, to take them to their home town charging a reasonable fare.

This was among the many scenes of migrants' life on Friday at Delhi-Uttar Pradesh border touching Ghazipur in east Delhi who are struggling to make their way to their native places amid a COVID-19-induced lockdown across the country.

"We left home three days ago near Chhatarpur, we have walked and rested by roadsides, people gave us food on the way, so we survived. Now, we just want to reach home, we can't survive in Delhi," Manju Singh, wife of Adesh Singh told PTI as she waited at the UP Gate to get a taxi to cross the border on way to her home.

Their three children Alok (12), Ankesh (8) and Rupali (9), all wearing simple masks, were seen squatting on the roadside beside their luggage as their wearied parents, using cloths to cover their nose and mouth, bargained with taxi drivers to take them home, without charging much above the regular fare, saying they "did not have much cash left".

Police personnel could be seen asking many migrants who were marching on foot towards the inter-state border, to turn back.

Many did, but not Sunny and Danish, who feel if "Allah wants us to reach home, we surely will".

Both of them worked at a chemical plant in Delhi, and said, they have been "kicked out" after the lockdown was imposed, making their survival difficult in the national capital.

"We don't have money to pay rent now, or buy food, we have to go home now, what option do we have," Sunny said.

Danish alleged that the poor have been "abandoned" by the government and left in the lurch.

"The government has money to bring home Indians stranded abroad, but can't take home the Indians who have been toiling hard all these years. Is it fair to us," he asked.

"But, Inshallah, we will reach home if the Almighty wants us to, and will be joining our family for Eid, though it will hardly be a celebration this time. But, we want the comfort of being with our family at least," Sunny said.

Eid which marks the end of the holy Ramzan month, will be celebrated either on Sunday or Monday, depending on sighting of the moon.

Lakhs of migrant labourers stranded away from home in Delhi and other big cities have been attempting to reach home in the last two months, a large number of them walking on foot after they found no mode of conveyance.

The coronavirus death toll in Delhi has mounted to 208, while 660 fresh cases of COVID-19 infection reported on Friday, the highest single-day spike here, took the total in the city to 12,319.

Roshan Shrivastav (19), his nephew Shivam Shrivastav (19) and friend Prince Gupta (21), all hailing from Siwan in Bihar, were seen standing on a pavement after being told by the police to turn back from the barricade posted bear the Delhi-UP border.

"We live together in Baljeet Nagar in West Delhi, in a single room. I had come from Bihar after Holi, seeking a job, but then I got stuck in lockdown here without a job. Whatever money I had brought, and Rs 10,000 our parents had sent online, all has got exhausted in these three months," Roshan lamented.

"Our landlord has been very kind, and didn't even ask for any rent after the lockdown, but how long can we survive on charity. And, I don't like being dependent on someone, so we want to go home," he said.

Roshan said, he and Shivam, both also write and sing songs in Hindi and their native tongue Bhojpuri.

"We have written a few lines on lockdown crisis too -- 'Hum mazdooran ke ghar bhejwa da sarkar, nahin to ketna log hiyan par ho jai bimar' (please send us home or else many would fall sick here)," Shivam said, as he stood in scorching heat of May, carrying his leftover cash in pocket and hope in heart. 

United Nations, Jun 6: The COVID-19 pandemic, which has presented challenges for several nations, could be an “opportunity” for India to speed up the health insurance scheme Ayushman Bharat, especially with a focus on primary healthcare, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has said.

WHO Director-General Ghebreyesus was responding to a question on the COVID-19 situation in India, where the number of coronavirus cases are increasing rapidly. India went past Italy on Friday to become the sixth worst-hit nation by the COVID-19 pandemic.

India saw a record single-day jump of 9,887 coronavirus cases and 294 deaths on Saturday, pushing the nationwide infection tally to 2,36,657 and the death toll to 6,642, according to the health ministry.

"Of course COVID is very unfortunate and it's challenging for many nations but we need to look for opportunities too. For instance for India, this could be an opportunity to speed up Ayushman Bharat, especially with a focus on primary health care. I know there is a very strong commitment from the government to speed up the implementation of Ayushman Bharat and with primary healthcare and community engagement, I think we can really turn the tide,” Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing in Geneva on Friday.

Ayushman Bharat is the world’s largest health insurance scheme and was launched by the Narendra Modi government in 2018. Last month, Modi had said that the number of people who have benefited from the scheme crossed the one crore-mark.

The scheme aims to cover more than 500 million beneficiaries and provide coverage of Rs 500,000 per family per year.

Referring to the Ayushman Bharat scheme, Ghebreyesus added that “using and speeding up what has started could actually help in India and that's what WHO was very appreciative by the way when Ayushman Bharat started. And this could be a very good opportunity actually to test that and speed up and use it to really fight this pandemic.”