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New Delhi, Feb 29: India’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than six years in the last three months of 2019, with analysts predicting further deceleration as the global Covid 19 coronavirus outbreak stifles growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The gross domestic product (GDP) data released yesterday showed government spending, private investment and exports slowing down, while there is a slight upturn in consumer spending and improvement in rural demand lent support.

The quarterly figure of 4.7% growth matched the consensus in a Reuters poll of analysts but was below a revised - and greatly increased - 5.1% rate for the previous quarter.

The central bank has warned that downside risks to global growth have increased as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, the full effects of which are still unfolding.

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s government has taken several steps to bolster economic growth, including a privatisation push and increased state spending, after cutting corporate tax rates last September.

In its annual budget presented this month, the government estimated that annual economic growth in the financial year to March 31 would be 5%, its lowest for last 11 years.

Modi’s government is targeting a slight recovery in growth to 6% for 2020/21, still far below the level needed to generate jobs for millions of young Indians entering the labour market each month.

The annual GDP figure for the September quarter was ramped up from an earlier estimate of 4.5%, while the April-June reading was similarly lifted to 5.6% from 5%, data released by the Ministry of Statistics showed on Friday.

Capital Investment Drop

In the December quarter, private investment grew 5.9%, up from 5.6% in the previous quarter, while government spending rose by 11.8%, against 13.2% in the previous three months.

However, corporate capital investment contracted by 5.2% after a 4.1% decline in the previous quarter, indicating that interest rate cuts by the central bank have failed to encourage new investment. Manufacturing, meanwhile, contracted by 0.2%.

“It appears growth slowdown is not just cyclical but more entrenched with consumption secularly joining the slowdown bandwagon even as the investment story continues to languish,” said Madhavi Arora of Edelweiss Securities in Mumbai.

Many economists said that the government stimulus could take four to six quarters of time before lifting the economy and the impact of those efforts could be outweighed by the global fallout from the coronavirus epidemic that began in China.

“The coronavirus remains the critical risk as India depends on China for both demand and supply of inputs,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.

Indian shares sank on Friday for a sixth session running, capping their worst week in more than a decade. The NSE Nifty 50 index shed 7.3% over the week, while the Sensex dropped 6.8%, the worst weekly declines since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Separately, India’s infrastructure output rose 2.2% year on year in January, data showed on Friday.

A spike in inflation to a more than 5-1/2 year high of 7.59% in January is expected to make the RBI hold off from further cuts to interest rates for now, while keeping its monetary stance accommodative.

New Delhi/Washington, Feb 14: India has offered to partially open up its poultry and dairy markets in a bid for a limited trade deal during US President Donald Trump's first official visit to the country this month, people familiar with the protracted talks say.

India, the world's largest milk-producing nation, has traditionally restricted dairy imports to protect the livelihoods of 80 million rural households involved in the industry.

But Prime Minister Narendra Modi is trying to pull all the stops for the US President's February 24-25 visit, aimed at rebuilding bonds between the world's largest democracies.

In 2019, President Trump suspended India's special trade designation that dated back to 1970s, after PM Modi put price caps on medical devices, such as cardiac stents and knee implants, and introduced new data localization requirements and e-commerce restrictions.

President Trump's trip to India has raised hopes that he would restore some of the country's US trade preferences, in exchange for tariff reductions and other concessions.

The United States is India's second-largest trade partner after China, and bilateral goods and services trade climbed to a record $142.6 billion in 2018. The United States had a $23.2 billion goods trade deficit in 2019 with India, its 9th largest trading partner in goods.

India has offered to allow imports of US chicken legs, turkey and produce such as blueberries and cherries, government sources said, and has offered to cut tariffs on chicken legs from 100 per cent to 25 per cent. US negotiators want that tariff cut to 10 per cent. The Modi government is also offering to allow some access to India's dairy market, but with a 5 per cent tariff and quotas, the sources said. But dairy imports would need a certificate they are not derived from animals that have consumed feeds that include internal organs, blood meal or tissues of ruminants.

New Delhi has also offered to lower its 50 per cent tariffs on very large motorcycles made by Harley-Davidson, a tax that was a particular irritant for President Trump, who has labelled India the "tariff king." The change would be largely symbolic because few such motorcycles are sold in India.

President Trump will be feted in PM Modi's home state of Gujarat, then hold talks in New Delhi and attend a reception that the hosts have promised will be bigger than the one organised for former president Barack Obama in 2015.

But it is far from clear whether India's offers will be enough to satisfy US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who cancelled plans for a trip to India this week. Instead, he has held telephone talks with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal.

The US dairy industry remained sceptical on Thursday that a viable deal is at hand.

"We're always looking for market access, but in terms of India, as of today I'm not aware of any real progress going on," said Michael Dykes, president of the International Dairy Foods Association and a member of USTR's agricultural trade policy advisory committee.

Mr Dykes said the US dairy industry was looking for access in viable commercial quantities.

A USTR spokesman and India's trade ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

A parliament panel is reviewing a draft data privacy law that imposes stringent controls over cross-border data flows and gives the government powers to seek user data from companies.

It is not clear whether it will be passed, or in what form, but the possibilities have unnerved US companies and could raise compliance requirements for Google, Amazon.com Inc, and Facebook.

The draft law is not part of the trade discussions, Indian officials say, because the issue is too difficult to resolve at the same time.

"The privacy and localization piece will be raised independently and in concert with the trade discussions," said a Washington-based source with knowledge of the US administration's thinking.

President Trump on Tuesday was non-committal about sealing a trade deal before his visit. "If we can make the right deal, we'll do it," he told reporters.

Two US sources said progress had been made on proposed alterations to the medical device price caps. India's new import tariffs on medical devices, walnuts, toys, electronics and other products on February 1 surprised US negotiators, however.

The new tariffs were aimed at China, which also makes medical devices, according to an Indian government source. "We have to protect our market and our companies," the source said.

New Delhi, April 7: The government continued to take steps to contain the spread of coronavirus including a strategy of cluster containment as the cases continued to rise and Tuesday saw single-day largest jump of 722 positive cases.

The total number of positive cases reached 4,789 on Tuesday, the 14th day of lockdown.

According to the latest update of the Health Ministry, there are 4,312 active cases, 352 persons have been cured or discharged (one migrated) and 124 have died.

Maharashtra has the largest number of positive cases at 868 and also accounts for the largest number of deaths at 48. Tamil Nadu has 621 confirmed cases.

Thirteen persons have died in Madhya Pradesh and the same number in Gujarat.
The 21-day lockdown was announced on March 24 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

At the regular media briefing at 4 pm, Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secretary in the Health Ministry, said that the government is adopting a strategy for cluster containment.

"This strategy is producing positive results, especially in Agra, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Pathanamthitta, Bhilwara and East Delhi," he said.

Aggarwal said that a recent study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has shown that a person infected with coronavirus can infect 406 others in just 30 days if he does not follow the lockdown and social distancing norms.

He said no decision has been taken on extending the lockdown and urged against any speculation.

He said latest technology was being used for management of COVID-19 and there was real-time tracking of ambulances.

The official said the dedicated facilities for COVID-19 are divided into three parts -- COVID Care Centre, Dedicated COVID Health Centre and Dedicated COVID Hospitals.

He said that COVID Care Centres were for treating mild, very mild and likely to be COVID-19 patients. Hostels, hotels, school, and stadium can be used for this. "We have asked states to map it with COVID Care Hospitals and COVID Health Centre so that patients can be shifted if needed," he said.

The official said that COVID Health Centres were for treating COVID-19 patients of clinically moderate level of seriousness. "For this, fully functional hospitals will be used. A dedicated block of a fully functional hospital can also be used for this. The hospitals must have beds with oxygen support," he said.

Aggarwal said that dedicated COVID Hospitals were meant for severe and critical cases and these must be fully-equipped with ICUs and ventilators.
New coronavirus cases were reported on Tuesday from several states including Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu.

The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has issued an advisory about containing coronavirus in national parks, sanctuaries and tiger reserves in view of the spread of COVID-19 and a report about tiger being infected in New York. The Central Zoo Authority has also advised zoos in India to remain on high alert.

Here's a quick read on the COVID-19 related updates

1. The Indian Railways has prepared 40,000 isolation beds in 2,500 coaches and this work is ongoing in 133 locations across the country.

2. Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said he was willing to extend the lockdown in the state after the completion of 21-day period to save lives.

3. The government is monitoring the movement of pharmaceuticals closely and the movement of pharmaceuticals through trucks has stabilised in the country.

4. Under the 'Lifeline Udan' initiative, 152 flights have transported over 200 tonnes of cargo till April 6.

5. According to ICMR, testing of 1,07,006 people has been carried out till date and 136 government labs and 59 private labs are conducting tests in the country.

6. The Home Ministry said that the status of essential goods and services was by and large satisfactory in the country. Home Minister Amit Shah has issued directives to the states to ensure there is no hoarding or black marketing in any corner of the country.

7. The number of corona positive cases in Uttar Pradesh has reached 314. Of these, 168 patients are connected to Tablighi Jamaat, state Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said on Tuesday.

8. The government has lifted restrictions on export of 24 pharmaceutical ingredients and medicines made from them.

9. Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said the Group of Ministers had "an extensive discussion on the prevailing situation post the lockdown" in the country. They also appreciated the Cabinet's decision to cut MP's salary for a year.

10. Central Zoo Authority has advised zoos in the country to remain on highest alertness, watch animals on 24X7 basis, using CCTV for any abnormal behavior or symptoms.