Test for reform zeal of Modi government in make-or-break Budget today, tax sops likely

February 28, 2015

New Delhi, Feb 28: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's stomach for free-market economics faces a major test on Saturday when the first full Budget will be unveiled by Finance Minister Arun Jaitely.

Modi governmentReaping the benefits of low global prices for oil, India's main import, Modi's government sees itself in a sweet spot with spare cash to modernize ageing roads and railways without busting fiscal deficit and inflation targets.

"Let us stop unnecessary expenditure so that money can reach the poor," Modi told Parliament on Friday after the Economic Survey report committed to bringing the fiscal deficit down to 3 per cent of gross domestic product - from more than 4 per cent at present - in the medium-term. "We believe in optimum utilisation of our infrastructure," he said.

An overhaul of economic data has propelled India to the top of the league of fast-growing major economies, and the current account deficit is projected to fall below 1 per cent in 2016, which would help stabilize the rupee and build up reserves.

But expectations for a further shift in expenditure from subsidies to infrastructure are sky high among investors who made India the best performing stock market in Asia after China last year on hopes Modi's government brings sweeping reforms to labour, tax and land laws.

The rally has continued in 2015 on expectations that legislative reform will push ahead stalled private investment and consumer demand, and reverse a decline in corporate earnings to make Asia's third-largest economy a global growth driver.

The Budget being hyped as a 'make or break' exercise, is widely expected to unveil sops for tax payers while pushing forward the 'Make In India' campaign. Coming as it does after the Delhi electoral defeat and the Assembly elections scheduled in Bihar later in 2015, speculation is on whether the Budget will be populist. There is expectation that the Finance Minister could raise tax slabs or hike investment limit in saving instruments.

He is also likely to pursue the path of fiscal consolidation and keep the fiscal deficit target at 3.6 per cent of GDP, down from 4.1 per cent expected in 2015. Besides sops to individual tax payers, he is also expected to unveil initiatives to boost investments by corporates and promote manufacturing as part of the 'Make In India' campaign that aims to make the country a global manufacturing hub and create jobs.

The Economic Survey released on Friday underlined the need for 'Big Bang' reforms to boost growth to 8-10 per cent in the coming years. Besides , it has pitched for raising public investments to drive economic growth and improving business environment by making regulation and taxes less onerous.

Jaitley, who in his maiden Budget in July 2014 had outlined his approach to providing relief to individual tax payers, is expected to continue this in the BJP government's first full year Budget on Saturday. in 2014, he had raised the personal income tax exemption limit by Rs 50,000 to Rs 2.50 lakh and also raised by same amount the exemption from payment of I-T on savings to Rs 1.50 lakh.

However, this time around Jaitley, according to experts, may choose only one of them as he looks at additional revenue to boost public spending and push economy to high growth path. He may also look to raise the tax exempted investment limit in health insurance as well as exempt savings in pension schemes at all three stages -- entry, accrual and withdrawal.

Analysts warn that Indian stocks are overvalued and that equity markets could see a sell off of 6-8 per cent if the pro-growth measures in the budget fall short of expectations. Modi has capitalised on low oil prices to shake off some of the fuel subsidies that have hobbled India's national accounts for years. But he has been unable to pass reform in the upper house of Parliament, where the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government has no majority.

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Agencies
April 23,2020

New Delhi, Apr 23: The nationwide lockdown in India which started about a month ago has impacted nearly 40 million internal migrants, the World Bank has said.

The lockdown in India has impacted the livelihoods of a large proportion of the country's nearly 40 million internal migrants. Around 50,000 60,000 moved from urban centers to rural areas of origin in the span of a few days, the bank said in a report released on Wednesday.

According to the report -- 'COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens' -- the magnitude of internal migration is about two-and-a-half times that of international migration.

Lockdowns, loss of employment, and social distancing prompted a chaotic and painful process of mass return for internal migrants in India and many countries in Latin America, it said.

Thus, the COVID-19 containment measures might have contributed to spreading the epidemic, the report said.

Governments need to address the challenges facing internal migrants by including them in health services and cash transfer and other social programmes, and protecting them from discrimination, it said.

World Bank said that coronavirus crisis has affected both international and internal migration in the South Asia region.

As the early phases of the crisis unfolded, many international migrants, especially from the Gulf countries, returned to countries such as India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh until travel restrictions halted these flows.

Some migrants had to be evacuated by governments, such as those of China and Iran, it said.

Before the coronavirus crisis, migrant outflows from the region were robust, the report said.

The number of recorded, primarily low-skilled emigrants from India and Pakistan rose in 2019 relative to the prior year but is expected to decline in 2020 due to the pandemic and oil price declines impacting the Gulf countries.

In India, the number of low-skilled emigrants seeking mandatory clearance for emigration rose slightly by eight percent to 368,048 in 2019.

In Pakistan, the number of emigrants jumped 63 per cent to 6,25,203 in 2019, largely due to a doubling of emigration to Saudi Arabia, it said.

According to the bank, migration flows are likely to fall, but the stock of international migrants may not decrease immediately, since migrants cannot return to their countries due to travel bans and disruption to transportation services.

In 2019, there were around 272 million international migrants.

The rate of voluntary return migration is likely to fall, except in the case of a few cross-border migration corridors in the South (such as Venezuela-Colombia, Nepal-India, Zimbabwe South Africa, Myanmar-Thailand), it said.

Migrant workers tend to be vulnerable to the loss of employment and wages during an economic crisis in their host country, more so than native-born workers.

Lockdowns in labour camps and dormitories can also increase the risk of contagion among migrant workers.

Many migrants have been stranded due to the suspension of transport services. Some host countries have granted visa extensions and temporary amnesty to migrant workers, and some have suspended the involuntary return of migrants, it said.

Observing that government policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis have largely excluded migrants and their families back home, the World Bank said there is a strong case for including migrants in the near-term health strategies of all countries, given the externalities associated with the health status of an entire population in the face of a highly contagious pandemic.

The Bank said governments would do well to consider short, medium and long-term interventions to support stranded migrants, remittance infrastructure, loss of subsistence income for families back home, and access to health, housing, education, and jobs for migrant workers in host/transit countries and their families back home.

The pandemic has also highlighted the global shortage of health professionals and an urgent need for global cooperation and long-term investments in medical training, it said.

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News Network
May 21,2020

New Delhi, May 21: As many as 5,609 new COVID-19 cases were reported in India in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of cases in the country to 1,12,359 according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

Out of the total cases, 63,624 are active cases, 45,300 patients have been cured/discharged or have migrated and 3,435 deaths have been reported.

With 39,297 cases in total, Maharashtra remains the worst affected state in the country, followed by Tamil Nadu (13,191 cases), Gujarat (12,537 cases), and Delhi (11,088 cases).

The nationwide lockdown imposed as a precautionary measure to contain the spread of coronavirus has been extended till May 31.

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Agencies
February 8,2020

New Delhi, Feb 8: A 26-year-old woman sub-inspector (SI) of the Delhi Police was shot dead near Rohini East Metro station on Friday night, officials said.

The SI, Preeti Ahlawat, was posted in Patparganj Industrial Area Police Station, police said.

A call about the incident was received around 9.30 pm, they said, adding she received gunshot wounds on her head.

"We have identified the suspects and CCTV footage of the area has been collected," said SD Mishra, Additional Commissioner of Police (Rohini).

Three empty cartridges were found from the spot, the officer said, adding a case has been registered and a probe is on.

Personal enmity is suspected to be the reason behind the killing, the officer said.

Ahlawat joined the Delhi Police in 2018.

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