Three of a family from Ullal killed in ghastly mishap near Mysuru; several injured

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Bengaluru, Jan 6: Karnataka Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa on Sunday launched the ruling BJP's outreach campaign in favour of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in Bengaluru.

"The CAA came into being after its amendment bill was passed in Parliament during its winter session with the support of major political parties. It is meant to give shelter and protection to Hindu minorities facing persecution in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan. It does not take away any rights of Indians," Yediyurappa told residents on a door-to-door campaign in the city.

Accusing the opposition Congress of misleading the people on the CAA and inciting its protesters to indulge in violence, the chief minister said the Act does not cause any problem to all sections of Indians.

"There is no question of taking away anyone's citizenship, including that of Muslims, as the Act only facilitates the return of the Hindus persecuted in the neighbouring countries in the sub-continent," he asserted.

State deputy chief minister H.C. Ashwath Narayana and party's Bengaluru Central Lok Sabha member P.C. Mohan accompanied the chief minister on his outreach programme in some residential and commercial areas of the city.

As part of the nationwide campaign in favour the CAA, the party's state unit president Nalin Kumar Kateel and the state's dozen cabinet ministers led the campaign in other cities across the southern state.

"An awareness campaign will be peacefully held daily till January 15 across the state to counter the protests against it by students and other people at the behest of the Congress and Left parties," Kateel told reporters at Mangaluru, 350km southwest of Bengaluru.

Kateel is a BJP Lok Sabha member from the state's Dakshina Kannada seat.

Besides contacting the people directly at their doorstep through the party's leaders, cadres and supporters, the BJP is reaching all sections of society through social media and by holding pro-CAA rallies in all the 30-district headquarters across the state over the next 10 days.

"About 300 leaders and cadres of the party have fanned out in cities and towns across the state to explain the provisions of the CAA to the people and clarify their doubts, as the protesters were misleading them with wrong information about it," reiterated Kateel.

The CAA came into being after the President enacted the a law to give citizenship rights to Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Parsis and Christians who have been allegedly persecuted as minorities in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan over the last seven decades.

"A deliberate misinformation campaign has been carried out against the CAA by vested interests, misguiding a section of college/university students, their faculty, activists and members of the minority community on its provisions so as to create unrest and trigger violence in the country," Ravikumar claimed.

The ruling party also held rallies and public meetings in major cities like Mysuru, Mangaluru, Hubballi, Belagavi, Bellary and Kalaburagi across the state and enlightened the people on the benefits of the CAA.

"As social media is all-pervasive with greater reach and better impact, we are also reaching about one crore people of all ages through Kannada, Hindi and English script, messages and audio/video clips in the state during the fortnight campaign," added Kateel.

Bengaluru, Jan 3: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday called on young scientists of India to "Innovate, Patent, Produce and Prosper," and said these four steps would lead our country towards faster development. The Prime Minister also stressed on the need to transform the landscape of Indian science, technology and innovation.

"The growth story of India depends on its success in the science and technology sector. There is a need to transform the landscape of Indian science, technology and innovation," Modi said.

Speaking after inaugurating the 107th Session of Indian Science Congress, he said, "My motto for the young scientists in this country is -Innovate, Patent, Produce and Prosper. These four steps will lead our country towards faster development."

"If we innovate we will patent and that in turn will make our production smoother and when we take these products to the people of our country, I'm sure they will prosper," he said, adding that innovation for the people and by the people is the direction of our new India. The Prime Minister also said he was happy to learn that India's ranking has improved in the Global Innovation Index to 52.

"Our programmes have created more technology business incubators in the last five years than in the previous 50 years. I congratulate our scientists for this achievement," he added.