Trump's likely pick for Ambassador knows a lot about India

Agencies
June 23, 2017

Washington, Jun 23: After five months without a U.S. number one in India, Donald Trump appears to have finally chosen the next ambassador to the subcontinent. Kenneth Juster, who serves as a top deputy at the National Economic Council in Trump's White House, will likely exert a steadying influence on U.S.-India relations if his nomination goes forward as expected.Donald

Juster is a long-time India hand - he chaired the U.S.-India High Technology Cooperation Group and helped spearhead a major new bilateral initiative under the George W. Bush administration - and with his extensive diplomatic experience, he differs from some of Trump's other ambassadorial picks such as Terry Branstad, the former Iowa governor, or Callista Gingrich, his envoy to the Vatican.

That would be a balm for Indians ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first meeting with Trump on June 26 in Washington.

"If Ken Juster is named, the Indians will be pleased about that because he is a known quantity," said Tanvi Madan, director of the India Project at the Brookings Institution. "In a time of a lot of uncertainty, his appointment would be a reassurance."

"He's considered an experienced hand with a good relationship in the White House and other agencies that will make him an effective ambassador," said Ronak D. Desai, a U.S.-India relations expert at Harvard University and fellow at New America.

Rumors swirled in May that Juster was out as Trump's G7 chief negotiator amid personal tensions with other White House staff but was under consideration for India ambassador. Confirmation of his apparently likely nomination was reported in the Washington Post on June 21.

The State Department declined to comment.

If Juster is tapped for the post, he'll have to navigate some significant political minefields, in large part thanks to his former boss in the Oval Office. One key sticking point is climate change. Trump angered the entire world when he pulled out of the Paris climate agreement, and went out of his way to jab India in the process.

He falsely claimed India had only signed onto the agreement for billions of dollars in subsidies in a speech on June 1 announcing his withdrawal. "That rubbed India the wrong way," said Desai. India "invested a lot and went out on a ledge" to back the U.S.-brokered Paris climate agreement.

There's more irritants than just Paris. A spate of attacks on Indian-Americans since Trump came into office has also caused consternation in the subcontinent. And modifications to make it harder for highly-skilled workers overseas to get U.S. visas - part of the Trump White House's "America First" plan, which big tech companies don't like - could hit India hard.

But if anything has chafed Modi, he hasn't let it show publicly. "[India] has very studiously avoided criticizing Trump in a manner other world leaders have done in the past four to five months," said Desai.

Some blame the attacks on Indian-Americans on the racially-charged climate Trump churned up on the campaign trail - and he's been silent on the attacks ever since despite growing concerns among Indians and Indian-Americans.

"Given the very real fears of Indian-Americans and the crucial role of the Indian diaspora in U.S.-India relations, Modi can't afford not to bring up this matter," wrote the Wilson Center's Michael Kugelman.

But Trump's overall policy towards India has yet to take shape. Modi and former President Barack Obama enjoyed a strong personal rapport that boosted bilateral relations during his term. The litmus test for Modi's relationship with Trump comes Monday, when they meet for the first time in Washington.

The two leaders are expected to discuss terrorism, trade, and Indo-Pacific security issues, with an eye on China's growing assertiveness in the Indian Ocean, where the United States and India are cooperating more. Trump jarred the world with his rejection of multilateral free trade deals, excoriating China for what he called unfair trade practices that harm American workers.

India has so far avoided similar ire. Last year, trade between the two nations totalled almost $115 billion; the United States imported about $31 billion more from India than it exported. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has previously signalled that the administration is open to discussing a free trade agreement with the world's sixth-largest economy, though there seems to be little momentum in that direction. (India was not a part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the 12-nation trade deal Trump pulled out of.)

But unlike China, Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf states, and Turkey, India is not a big player on issues like Syria or North Korea - the issues the Trump administration cares most about. That will make Modi work to capture Trump's interest.

"The question will be, what level of attention does India get?" said Madan.

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News Network
February 21,2020

Washington, Feb 21: US President Donald Trump has made yet another tall claim about the size of the crowd that will welcome him in Ahmedabad, saying Prime Minister Narendra Modi has told him that there will 10 million(1 crore) people to greet him on his arrival for his maiden visit to India.

President Trump and First Lady Melania are scheduled to travel to Ahmedabad, Agra and New Delhi on February 24 and 25.

Speaking to reporters at the Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on Tuesday, Trump said that Modi told him that "we'll have 7 million people between the airport and the event."

"So it's going to be very exciting. But he says between the stadium and the airport, we'll have about 7 million people. So it's going to be very exciting. I hope you all enjoy it," he said.

On Thursday, Trump upped the crowd size by three million at a 'Keep America Great' rally in Colorado.

"I hear, they are going to have 10 million people. They say anywhere from six to 10 million people are going to be showing up along the route to one of the largest stadiums in the world, the largest cricket stadium in the world, which is brand new and beautiful," said Trump, who is seeking reelection in the November presidential polls.

But according to a top civic official in Ahmedabad, the total population of the city is only around 70 lakh.

The authorities believe that between one to two lakh people are expected to line up along the 22-km route of the road show by Modi and Trump from the airport to the Motera cricket stadium, said to be the world's largest.

"We believe that around one to two lakh people will gather to welcome the dignitaries during the road show," Ahmedabad Municipal Commissioner Vijay Nehra said on Thursday, contradicting the claims made by the US President.

As per the road show route plan, Trump and Modi will first reach the Sabarmati Ashram, a place closely associated with Mahatma Gandhi, from Ahmedabad airport.

Addressing his supporters, Trump spoke about his India visit and said the "Namaste Trump" rally in Ahmedabad would spoil him.

"Prime Minister Modi said, we will have 10 million people greet you. Here's my problem. We have a packed house. We have a lot of people, thousands of people that couldn't get in. It's going to look like peanuts from now on," he said.

"I'll never be satisfied with the crowd. If we have 10 million people in India, how can I be satisfied when we fill up like a 60,000-seat stadium? I am getting spoiled," Trump said.

One of Trump's supporters from the audience then suggested that he build a bigger stadium.

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News Network
April 12,2020

Apr 12: India and other South Asian countries are likely to record their worst growth performance in four decades this year due to the coronavirus outbreak, the World Bank said on Sunday.

The South Asian region, comprising eight countries, is likely to show economic growth of 1.8 per cent to 2.8 per cent this year, the World Bank said in its South Asia Economic Focus report, well down from the 6.3 per cent it projected six months ago.

India's economy, the region's biggest, is expected to grow 1.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent in the fiscal year that started on April 1. The World Bank has estimated it will grow 4.8 per cent to 5 per cent in the fiscal year that ended on March 31.

"The green shoots of a rebound that were observable at the end of 2019 have been overtaken by the negative impacts of the global crisis," the World Bank report said.

Other than India, the World Bank forecast that Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh will also see sharp falls in economic growth.

Three other countries - Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Maldives - are expected to fall into recession, the World Bank said in the report, which was based on country-level data available as of April 7.

Measures taken to counter the coronavirus have disrupted supply chains across South Asia, which has recorded more than 13,000 cases so far - still lower than many parts of the world.

India's lockdown of 1.3 billion people has also left millions out of work, disrupted big and small businesses and forced an exodus of migrant workers from the cities to their homes in villages.

In the event of prolonged and broad national lockdowns, the report warned of a worst-case scenario in which the entire region would experience an economic contraction this year.

To minimize short-term economic pain, the Bank called for countries in the region to announce more fiscal and monetary steps to support unemployed migrant workers, as well as debt relief for businesses and individuals.

India has so far unveiled a $23 billion economic plan to offer direct cash transfers to millions of poor people hit by its lockdown. In neighbouring Pakistan, the government has announced a $6 billion plan to support the economy.

"The priority for all South Asian governments is to contain the virus spread and protect their people, especially the poorest who face considerable worse health and economic outcomes," said senior World Bank official Hartwig Schafer.

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News Network
April 26,2020

Islamabad, Apr 26: Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan has been trumped by the country's powerful military yet again, this time over his government's inadequate steps and its poor response in curbing the coronavirus outbreak in the country, even as cases soared over 12,500.

In his address to the nation on March 22, Khan explained the reasons for not imposing a countrywide lockdown, asserting that millions would lose their jobs and affect families, who are below the poverty line, struggling to find enough food to eat. However, less than 24 hours later, Pakistan Army spokesperson Major General Babar Iftikhar announced the implementation of lockdown in the country having a population of over 200 million, contradicting the statements made by Imran Khan.

As lockdown was imposed, the military has deployed troops across Pakistan and is orchestrating the COVID-19 response through the National Core Committee, a body set up to coordinate policy between the national and provincial governments.

"The government left a big gap in its handling of the coronavirus. The army has tried to fill that gap, there was no choice," an unnamed retired general was quoted by Financial Times as saying.

The virus crisis in Pakistan has once again made things crystal clear about who is calling the shots -- the military, widely believed to bring Imran Khan to power in 2018.

The armymen have taken over the COVID-19 crisis as an opportunity to prove their competency in contrast to Imran Khan, who was mocked after urging youth to come forward and join Corona Relief Tigers Force, a volunteer body to wage "jihad" against the virus.

According to analysts, the military's seizure of the coronavirus response marks yet another policy failure for Imran Khan in the eyes of the generals, as per the Financial Times report.

The 67-year-old cricketer-turned-politician has repeatedly failed to gain international traction over the Kashmir issue and has struggled to convince the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in getting his country removed from 'grey list' for terror funding.

In times of emergency, one has to take clear decisions and take them through. You can't dither. The whole world is advising strong lockdown. If the prime minister does not show that he is decisive, somebody else will," said Nafisa Shah, a Member of Parliament from the opposition Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

Even after the lockdown was imposed, Imran Khan continued to question the need for its implementation, raising eyebrows over the country's response in tackling the virus, as cases continue to rise. This comes even as such drastic measures are in place in many countries across the world, including neighbouring India.

According to The Dawn, the country has 12,657 confirmed cases of COVID-19, which includes 2,755 recoveries and 265 deaths. Punjab has the highest number of cases -- 5,326 --, followed by 4,232 in Sindh.

However, experts suggest that the actual numbers could be more given the low testing rates and inadequate supply of testing kits.

Doctors and nurses across the country have staged protests over the lack of personal protective equipment, as increasing numbers of health workers contract COVID-19.

"Because of the lack of resources, there is chaos among the doctors and healthcare workers. They know people are dying, they know the severity of the illness and they have to work without PPE," Shoaib Hasan Tarar, a doctor working in Rawalpindi, was quoted as saying.

As the coronavirus crisis continues to ravage Pakistan, the country's overwhelming health infrastructure has put a toll on its already floundering economy. The IMF said that the GDP will shrink 1.5 per cent in 2020. The cash-strapped nation is set to be the first major emerging economy to apply to a G-20 initiative to request debt repayment relief, according to Financial Times.

In early March, Pakistan saw a surge in coronavirus cases, when infected pilgrims and workers crossed the border from Qom, a religious city in Iran, which is a hotspot.

Pakistan's limited resources were exposed when quarantined pilgrims agitated against unhealthy conditions at Taftan camp on Pakistan-Iran border, where five people were living in a tent with no access to toilets.

While the lockdown is in place, authorities have been confronted by hardline clerics who have defied social distancing terms and downplayed the threat of the virus. During Friday prayers every week, worshippers violate the restrictions by gathering at various mosques.

Last week, Islamabad inked an agreement allowing mosques to stay open for Ramzan. It stipulated that people should follow 20 rules, including maintaining a six feet distance from each other.

"There is little consistency in terms of how the lockdown is being approached. Coronavirus has shown the disconnect between the national government, regional governments and the military. Imran Khan has been left behind as the cheerleader for keeping Pakistan's morale high. I think people are starting to ask, 'How long is he going to last?'", said Sajjan Gohel, South Asia expert and guest teacher at the London School of Economics.

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