Union Cabinet approves over Rs 8,500 crore for updating National Population Register

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Wayanad, May 14: Coronavirus scare has gripped the police in the district as around 70 personnel, including their chief, have gone on quarantine as a precautionary measure after three colleagues tested positive for the pathogen.

A day after three personnel of Mananthavady police station tested positive for COVID-19, District Superintendent of Police R Illango said on Thursday he and others decided to quarantine themselves as they had been in contact with some other colleagues from the station. Twenty four personnel, including a Deputy Superintendent of Police, have gone on quarantine after giving their samples for testing three days ago as a measure of abundant caution after a man questioned in Manathavady police station in connection with a case tested positive for the virus on May 9.

Of the 24, results of 18 have been received so far and three personnel tested positive on Wednesday, following which the station has been disinfected and virtually closed and contact tracing underway.

On Wednesday, the SP and some other police personnel had interacted with the DySp for close to an hour at a checkpost following which over 40 police personnel have voluntarily decided to go on quarantine.

"We are actually being over cautious. I have spoken to all the policemen. We know we are in the high-risk job. We are concerned that we might spread it to family members, public, or colleagues. So we want to maintain extreme caution", Illango, who is on home quarantine, told PTI.

With the three personnel testing positive in the state, Kerala Director General of Police Loknath Behera said the force should take all necessary precautions and fearlessly go ahead in the fight against the virus.

The three from Manathavady are believed to have contracted the virus after they came in contact with a man who was called to the station in connection with a case on April 28 and May 2. He later tested positive for COVID-19 on May 9. This man is suspected to be a contact of a truck driver, who has turned out to be a super spreader after returning to the district from Chennai's Koyambedu market, a hotspot, and had infected at least 10 others, including his wife, mother and grandchild.

The Mananthavady police station has been disinfected with the help of the Health Department and Fire Force personnel. Computers and wireless equipment have been shifted to other police buildings and the station's charge has been temporarily given to Vallamunda Station House Officer, a release from the DGP's office said. Two police personnel wearing personal protection equipment (PPE) kits would be at the station to take care of necessary work and a health worker posted to help them, it said.

Police personnel from other stations have been mobilised to meet any shortage, Illangosaid adding they need not come to the police station but directly go to the duty points. Meanwhile, the district health authorities said the standard operating procedure (SOP) has been initiated as soon as the test results of the three came by Wednesday noon. Accordingly, all personnel who were on duty were sent to nearby lodges and resorts for quarantine.

One of the policemen who tested positive had been to Sulthan Bathery police station and Muthanga area, where the DySP and few other officials were also present. This is being seen as a lapse on the part of the police department. However, police sources said none had directed the 24 personnel, whose samples were collected on Monday, to go on quarantine or abstain from duty. The health department is trying to map out the contact list of the police personnel to contain further spread from their direct and secondary contacts.

According to police sources, the Sulthan Bathery Circle Inspector, two sub-inspectors and about 18 police personnel of the Mananthavady police station are among those who have been put on quarantine. As part of containment measures, the courts in Sulthan Bathery and Mananthavady have been closed on Thursday, officials said. 

Jammu, Jan 23: The National Investigation Agency (NIA) has brought the disgraced Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) Davinder Singh to Jammu for investigations.

According to sources, Davinder Singh has been brought on a transit remand. A formal remand from the NIA court for interrogation will be taken on Thursday.

On Wednesday, fresh raids were carried out by the NIA at Singh's residences in Srinagar.

Singh was caught while transporting two militants, Naveed Babu and Rafi Ahmed, and a lawyer Irfan Ahmed in a vehicle to Jammu on January 11.

According to sources the two militants and the lawyer had plans to travel to Pakistan after reaching Jammu.

The case was transferred to the NIA after initial investigation by the Jammu and Kashmir Police.

Singh has been dismissed from the service and the Jammu and Kashmir administration on Monday forfeited the commendation medal and certificate awarded to him.