Union Cabinet approves over Rs 8,500 crore for updating National Population Register

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

Thiruvananthapuram, May 22: Domestic flyers arriving in Kerala must undergo strict home quarantine as per the lockdown guidelines, in view of increasing COVID-19 cases in the state, Health Minister K K Shailaja said on Friday.

"Even if the domestic flight services resume, those coming in must remain under strict home quarantine as per the guidelines.

There is no change in that. Most people will be coming from the major hotspots of the country," she said.

Announcing the resumption of domestic flight services from May 25, the Civil Aviation Ministry had indicated on Thursday that it was not in favour of quarantining passengers on short-haul flights.

However, the Assam government has made it mandatory for all air passengers coming to that state to stay in quarantine for 14 days.

Apart from the health department and the local self government institutions, Shailaja said the people of Kerala must also ensure that every returnee to the state remained under strict home quarantine in order to curb the spread of the disease.

"We need to strictly keep under observation all those who come fromoutside the state and make sure that they do not come into contact with others including their family members.

They should be effectively remain under room quarantine at their residence," she said.

The state reported 690 cases after 24 more tested positive for coronavirus on Thursday.

As of now over 80,000 people are under observation across the state.

On the death of a 73-year-old woman, who came from Mumbai, on Thursday, the minister said, "Khadijakuttycame from Mumbai along with three others. She alighted at Chavakkad. Her son who picked her up from there took her to the govt hospital as she was tired. She was given good care."

"However, as her condition worsened, had taken a decision to sent her to the medicalcollege. Her swab test was taken and she was tested positive, but she passed away," Shailaja said.

The minister sounded a word of caution that there would be an increase in cases in the coming days as the influx of people coming from abroad and other states would continue.

"We cannot prevent anyone from coming. They are our brothers and were suffering there. We need to save those who come here and also those who are here," the Minister said.

Shailaja said the southern state had successfully managed the first two phases of the viral outbreak in January and March.

"There were three deaths. But we managed to save the rest of the people including a 93-year-old man," she said.

The Minister further said the situation in the state changed after flight services resumed and the border roads were re-opened after May 7.

"Our fatality rate is low and recovery rate is high.

After May 7, when the flight restrictions were lifted and people from other states started coming in, we reported 188 cases.

At least 90 per cent of the positive cases came from outside and the rest are their contacts," she noted.

May 6: The government on Tuesday said that the Food Corporation of India, the nodal agency for procurement and distribution of foodgrains, has sufficient stocks in its godowns, even after meeting the requirement of additional wheat and rice provided free of cost during the lockdown period.

Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan has given detailed information about the various steps taken by the government and the total stocks of food grains and pulses available with the government and sent to the states till now, an official statement said.

"FCI currently has 276.61 lakh tonnes rice and 353.49 lakh tonnes wheat. Hence a total of 630.10 lakh tonnes food grain stock is available," it said.

As against this, about 60 lakh tonnes of food grains is required for a month under the NFSA (National Food Security Act) and other welfare schemes.

Paswan said FCI stocks are comfortable even after fulfilling extra commitments during the lockdown.

Under the 'Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana', the Centre is providing 5 kg of free food grains per month to 80 crore ration card holders. This free of cost wheat and rice will be provided for three months. Besides, 1 kg of pulses will also be supplied per family.

This is over and above the normal quota of 5 kg of food grains provided per month per person to about 80 crore people under the food law.

The minister informed that since the lockdown, about 69.52 lakh tonnes of food grains have been transported through 2,483 rail rakes.

Apart from rail route, transportation was also done through roads and waterways. A total of 137.62 lakh tonnes has been transported.

During the lockdown, NGOs and social institutions running relief camps can purchase wheat and rice directly from FCI Depots at Open Market Sales Scheme (OMSS) rate.

The state governments can also purchase food grains directly from FCI. Under the OMSS, the rate of rice is fixed at Rs 22 per kg and wheat at Rs 21 per kg.

Under the 'Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana', for the next 3 months a total of 104.4 lakh tonnes rice and 15.6 lakh tonnes of wheat is required of which 59.50 lakh tonnes rice and 8.14 lakh tonnes wheat have been lifted by various states and UTs.

The Government of India is bearing 100 per cent financial burden of approximately Rs 46,000 crore under the scheme, the statement said.

For pulses, the total requirement for the next three months is 5.82 lakh tonnes.

So far, 2,20,727 tonnes of pulses have been dispatched, while 1,47,165 tonnes of pulses have reached the states/UTs and 47,490 tonnes have been delivered, it said.