US experts question Pakistan's decision to execute Kulbhushan Jadhav

April 12, 2017

Washington, Apr 12: Top US experts have expressed concern over Pakistan's decision to give death penalty to Indian national Kulbhushan Jadhav as they warned that Islamabad wants to send a "strong message" to India against isolating it on the world stage.

jadhav

Jadhav, 46, was awarded the death sentence by military Field General Court Martial under the army act for his alleged involvement in terrorism and espionage. The death sentence was confirmed by army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa.

"Apart from the gross irregularities in the Kulbhushan Jadhav situation, such as the lack of consular access and the secrecy surrounding the surprise court-martial, what struck me the most is the contrast between the speed of Mr Jadhav's trial set against the endless postponements for that of the Mumbai attackers," Alyssa Ayres, a former senior state department official in its South and Central Asia Bureau said.

"The latter case, by contrast, has been in a continual state of prolongation for nearly nine years," Ayres said.

She is currently senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, a top American think-tank.

Bharat Gopalaswamy, director of South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-DC based top US think-tank, believes that the evidence warranting Jadhav's conviction "is rather flimsy" and the story by the Pakistani authorities "do not add up".

Without furnishing further evidence, this conviction as it stands, "seems to be politically motivated" in order to counter India's aggressive diplomacy against Pakistan in combating terrorism, he said.

"This whole story is shrouded in mystery and uncertainty, but it seems clear that Pakistan wants to send a very strong message to India, whether to warn New Delhi against meddling in Pakistan or to push back in a big way against India's efforts to isolate Pakistan on the world stage," said Michael Kugelman, deputy director and senior associate for South Asia at the prestigious Woodrow Wilson Center.

"At the same time, given how much India will want to ensure that Yadav isn't executed, Pakistan now has a very large bargaining chip at its disposal. Pakistan may want to use Yadav as a trump card to get some type of major concession from India," Kugelman said.

"The bottom line is that India-Pakistan relations are on life support. We can kiss goodbye any immediate prospects for resuming dialogue, though that wasn't a very strong possibility even before the announcement about Yadav's death sentence. Ultimately, India and Pakistan face some very dark and dangerous days ahead," he said.

According to Sameer Lalwani, senior associate and deputy director for Stimson's South Asia program, said the decision and timing of Jadhav's execution sentence "appears puzzling" because in many ways it does not seem to work in Pakistan's self-interest.

"If Jadhav posed a threat and Pakistan wanted to send a deterrent signal to potential saboteurs of CPEC and Gwadar, they could have executed him months ago after his intelligence value had been exhausted," Lalwani said.

"If Pakistan wanted to exploit Jadhav's capture for diplomatic purposes by showcasing evidence of Indian sub conventional aggression, Pakistan still has yet to convince the international community and an execution raises suspicions," Lalwani said.

"Finally, if the Indians care that much about Jadhav, Pakistan could have used him as a bargaining chip. Perhaps the sentence is an opening bargaining gambit but actually executing Jadhav may not be reaping much of a deterrent signal for Pakistan while foreclosing on diplomatic or trade value," he said.

Both the state department and the White House refused to comment on the sentencing of Jadhav.

"We have seen these reports. We refer you to the governments of India and Pakistan for further information," a state department spokesperson said.

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Agencies
May 19,2020

Washington DC, May 19: US President Donald Trump has threatened to permanently halt funding for the World Health Organisation (WHO) if it did not commit to improvements within 30 days, and to reconsider the membership of the United States in the global health body.

On Monday, Trump wrote a letter to WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus that read, "If WHO doesn't commit to major substantive improvements within the next 30 days, I will make my temporary freeze of US funding to WHO permanent and reconsider our membership in the organisation."

Trump had temporarily suspended US' contribution to the WHO last month, accusing it of promoting China's "disinformation" about the coronavirus outbreak, although WHO officials denied the accusation and Beijing said that it was transparent and open.

"The only way forward for the WHO is if it can actually demonstrate independence from China. My administration has already started discussions with you on how to reform the organisation. But action is needed quickly. 

We do not have time to waste," Trump said in the letter.

"I cannot allow American taxpayer dollars to continue to finance an organisation that, in its present state, is so clearly not serving America's interests," he added.

On Monday, the WHO said that an independent review of the global coronavirus response would begin at the earliest and it received backing from China, where the virus was first discovered.

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News Network
May 3,2020

London, May 3: The British government had a contingency plan for prime minister Boris Johnson’s death as his condition deteriorated while he battled COVID-19 last month in intensive care, Johnson said in an interview with The Sun newspaper.

Johnson returned to work on Monday, a month after testing positive for COVID-19. Johnson, 55, spent 10 days in isolation in Downing Street from late March, but was then was taken to London’s St Thomas’ Hospital where he received oxygen treatment and spent three nights in intensive care.

“They had a strategy to deal with a ‘death of Stalin’-type scenario,” Johnson, 55, was quoted as saying by The Sun. “It was a tough old moment, I won’t deny it.”

After Johnson was discharged, St Thomas’ said it was glad to have cared for the prime minister, but the hospital has given no details about the gravity of his illness beyond stating that he was treated in intensive care.

Johnson and his fiancée, Carrie Symonds, on Saturday announced the name of their newly born son as Wilfred Lawrie Nicholas, partly as a tribute to two of the intensive care doctors who they said had saved Johnson’s life.

“The doctors had all sorts of arrangements for what to do if things went badly wrong,” Johnson said of his COVID-19 battle. “The bloody indicators kept going in the wrong direction.”

He said doctors discussed invasive ventilation.

“The bad moment came when it was 50-50 whether they were going to have to put a tube down my windpipe,” he said. “That was when it got a bit . . . they were starting to think about how to handle it presentationally.”

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Agencies
July 3,2020

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

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