US forces in Arabian Gulf afraid of Iran’s drones?

Agencies
August 25, 2017

High above the Arabian Gulf, an Iranian drone crosses the path of American fighter jets lining up to land on the USS Nimitz.

The drone buzzes across the sky at least a mile above the massive aircraft carrier and is spotted by the fighters. It is unarmed.

But for the senior Navy commanders on the ship, the presence of the enemy drone so close is worrying. Their biggest fear is the surveillance aircraft will start carrying weapons, posing a more direct threat to US vessels transiting one of the world’s most significant strategic and economic international waterways.

“It’s just a matter of time before we see that,” said Navy Rear Admiral Bill Byrne, commander of the carrier strike group that includes the Nimitz. He said the Iranian drone activity has “generated a lot of discussion” and was becoming an increasingly pressing matter of concern.

If, at some point, Byrne believes a drone is threatening his ship, he and his staff would have to carefully proceed through the required responses — efforts at communication, sounding the horn, firing flares and warning shots, and flying a helicopter close to the unmanned vehicle. If all those efforts fail and he still perceives a threat, Byrne said it would be his duty, his “responsibility,” to shoot down the Iranian drone.

So far, it hasn’t come to that. But the drones have become an even more dangerous security risk as US carriers in the Arabian Gulf like the Nimitz play a key role in Iraq and Syria. Planes from these ships are regularly flying to each country to bomb Daesh militants and other targets. From the Nimitz alone, US fighter jets flew missions resulting in at least 350 bombs being dropped on Daesh militants just in the last month.

Iran has routinely challenged US ships and aircraft across the Gulf, asserting at times that the entire waterway is its territory. Navy commanders say Iran’s unpredictable behavior is the biggest safety hazard.
“Iranians don’t always follow the rules,” Byrne said. “There is a well-established set of norms, standards and laws. They don’t tend to follow them.”

To counter the threat, Pentagon experts are searching for new ways to deter, defeat or disable the drones. According to Byrne and Cdr. Dave Kurtz, the Nimitz’s executive officer, Iranian drones fly over the carrier strike group almost daily.

They said the danger is that as the F/A-18 fighters return from their missions in Iraq and Syria, they circle overhead, lining up for their turn to land on the carrier. Even if the Iranian drones are only meant to annoy, their buzzing across the American flight paths risks an accident.

Up in the carrier’s control room, a book on Iranian naval and maritime forces sits above the radar screen. Commanders on the ship announce when a drone appears. Then, they go through a careful, planned response of attempted radio calls and warnings.

Gen. Joseph Votel, the top US commander in the Middle East, visited the Nimitz on Thursday, also stopping on the nearby USS Vella Gulf, a guided missile cruiser. The drone, he said, also flew over that ship.

“The proliferation of drones is a real challenge,” said Votel, who was finishing his 10-day trip to the Middle East and Afghanistan. “It’s growing exponentially.”
Speaking with traveling reporters, Votel said the Pentagon has sought to devise more high-tech ways to handle the drones through the Joint Improvised-Threat Defeat Organization, originally set up in 2006 to counter improvised explosive devices used by insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan to kill and maim American troops.

Much as it did with that decade-old roadside bomb battle, the organization now focuses on how to deal with Iran’s drones, Votel said. He didn’t provide details, but he acknowledged that US cyber capabilities could be used to defeat a drone or the network controlling it.

The military is training troops on drone response, he said. But right now, said Byrne, they’re still following their normal procedures. And he still hasn’t been forced to shoot one down.

Byrne described how a helicopter from the Nimitz flew by the drone to ensure it wasn’t weaponized. In the month the Nimitz has been in the Gulf, efforts to speak with the drone operators have been hit or miss, he said.

“Sometimes they answer, sometimes they don’t,” he said, echoing experiences American forces have had with small Iranian fast boats that pose a similar threat of coming too close by sea.

When the Iranians do answer, Byrne said, they often “challenge our assertion that they are flying into danger.” The drones fly out of airfields up and down the Iranian coast, mainly watching US ships and taking photos.

On Thursday, the Nimitz was about 40 miles from the Iranian coast, halfway between the Islamic Republic and Bahrain.

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Agencies
March 15,2020

Riyadh, Mar 15: Saudi Aramco on Sunday reported a 20.6 percent drop in its net profit for 2019 due to low oil prices and production levels, the company said in a statement.

These are the first annual results to be announced by the energy giant after its historical $29.4 billion initial public offering and listing on the Saudi Tadawul market last December.

Aramco posted net profits of $88.2 billion last year compared to $111.1 billion in 2018, Monday's statement said.

"The decrease was primarily due to lower crude oil prices and production volumes, coupled with declining refining and chemical margins," it said.

The company also made $1.6 billion of impairment provisions for losses associated with Sadara Chemical Company, an Aramco subsidiary.

"2019 was an exceptional year for Saudi Aramco. Through a variety of circumstances -- some planned and some not -- the world was offered unprecedented insight into Saudi Aramco's agility and resilience," CEO Amin Nasser said.

"Our unique scale, low costs, and resilience came together to deliver both growth and world-leading returns, while also maintaining our position as one of the world's most reliable energy companies," Nasser said.

The earnings for last year are not affected by the coronavirus outbreak or the ongoing price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has sent oil prices crashing.

Aramco said it will distribute dividends worth $73.2 billion for 2019 but based on its commitments under the IPO, its dividends for the next five years starting this year will be at least $75 billion.

It said its capital spending last year dropped to $32.8 billion from $35.1 billion in 2018.

The company expects capital spending, which is expenditure on projects, to be between $25 billion and $30 billion this year "in light of current market conditions and recent commodity price volatility."

But it said that capital expenditure for 2021 and beyond is currently under review.

The results were announced amid a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia after they failed to agree on additional output cuts to support prices dented by the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.

"The recent COVID-19 outbreak and its rapid spread illustrate the importance of agility and adaptability in an ever-changing global landscape," Nasser said.

The kingdom said last week Aramco will pump 12.3 million barrels of oil per day, boosting output by at least 2.5 million bpd.

It also announced plans to raise production capacity from 12 million bpd to 13 million bpd.

Forecasts for future crude prices and demand are also bleak.

In its latest monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its forecast for global average daily demand by 0.92 million barrels to 99.73 million barrels.

Saudi Arabia is also in the midst of a royal purge that saw King Salman's brother and nephew detained after sources said they were accused of plotting a palace coup to unseat the crown prince, heir to the Saudi throne.

Aramco shares rallied immediately after the listing on December 11, rising by 19 percent to 38 riyals ($10.1) and temporarily lifting the company's valuation above the $2 trillion mark, which was sought by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler.

But as oil prices tumble, Aramco shares have lost 29 percent from its highest point, slipping below the listing price.

On Thursday, Aramco's market value dropped to around $1.55 trillion, but it still remains the world's largest publicly listed company.

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News Network
April 21,2020

Dubai, Apr 21: Saudi Arabia reported 1122 new cases of coronavirus, bringing the total number of infections in the country to 10,484, the Ministry of Health announced on Monday (April 20).

Ministry of health announced 27% of the cases are for Saudis, while 73% for non-Saudis, and ages ranged from one month old baby to 96 years old.

Meanwhile, the ministry reported 92 recoveries today, with total recoveries in the kingdom at 1,490. There are 96 cases in intensive care.

The ministry also confirmed 6 deaths on Monday, bringing the total number of deaths in the kingdom to 103.

The Saudi health minister on Monday announced that 47 billion riyals were approved by the goverment to support the health ministry in this pandemic.

Also the minister in a press confrence referred to the large numbers of cases revealed in past days saying, "During the past three days, everyone noticed an increase in the number of people infected with the coronavirus, due to the active testing of areas."

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News Network
May 7,2020

Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

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