US Restricts Special Flights from India, Alleges "Unfair Practices"

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

New Delhi, Mar 23: The total number of novel coronavirus cases in India rose to 415 on Monday including seven deaths.

"A total of 18,383 samples from 17,493 individuals have been tested for SARS-CoV2 as on March 23 at 10 am IST. A total of 415 individuals have been confirmed positive among suspected cases and contacts of known positive cases," ICMR said in a release.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Maharashtra is the worst affected state with 67 confirmed cases, including 64 Indian nationals.

Kerala also has 67 confirmed cases with 60 Indian nationals.

Next on the list with most coronavirus-affected patients is Delhi with 29 confirmed cases.

Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan have 28 and 27 confirmed cases respectively. Telangana and Karnataka have reported 26 cases each. In Punjab, the number of COVID-19 affected patients stands at 21.

A total of 24 patients have been cured and discharged.

The Centre on Monday asked state governments to strictly enforce the lockdown imposed to prevent the spread of coronavirus and directed legal action against violators.

"States have been asked to strictly enforce the lockdown in the areas where it has been announced. Legal action will be taken against violators," a tweet by Principal Director General of PIB, KS Dhatwalia read.

A 'Janata curfew' was observed yesterday to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic, which has claimed and over 13,000 lives worldwide.