Vande Mataram or Afzal Guru? Venkaiah Naidu asks Indians

India will suspend all domestic flights from midnight Tuesday, the final piece of a nationwide lockdown that threatens Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attempts to revive an economy already expanding at the slowest pace in more than a decade.

The flight ban compliments a cancellation of all passenger trains through March 31, as authorities try to halt the spread of the coronavirus in the world’s second-most populous country, which has poorly equipped hospitals and inadequate social security. Modi on Monday held a conference call with some of India’s top entrepreneurs and bankers, who urged policymakers to immediately slash interest rates by as much as a full percentage point, transfer cash to the poorest citizens, and suspend loan-repayments.

Over the past three days, state after state has declared curfews and India’s international borders have been shut for most visitors since March 11. India so far has 492 virus cases, including nine deaths. But experts say the country could be on the same trajectory as Italy, where the outbreak quickly escalated, causing hospitals to overflow.
A traveller stands outside a near-empty Delhi Junction Railway Station in Delhi, March 22.

"This is the biggest lockdown in world history,” said Raghu Raman, a former soldier with the Indian Army and founder of the National Intelligence Grid, an umbrella database aimed at countering terrorism. “This strategic pause gives decision-makers more time to arrest the exponential spread of the virus and evaluate trade-offs.”

Controlling the outbreak is crucial for Modi, who remains India’s most popular political leader currently though his economic management has faced criticism. Foreign investors are selling Indian assets at an unprecedented pace and failure to contain deaths and infections could erode some of the prime minister’s personal appeal at home.

Oxford Economics slashed India’s January-March growth forecast to 3%, a number not seen even during the worst of the global financial crisis. The main equity gauge rose about 3% on Tuesday after a record 13.2% plunge Monday, and the rupee stayed near its all-time low.

“A part of the cerebral cortex that senses fear and survival seems to have activated in the minds of investors,” said Umesh Mehta, Mumbai-based head of research at Samco Securities Ltd. “The only relief in this market can come from either policy makers and regulators, or from some positive news that a cure for the pandemic is near.”

Bloomberg Economics estimates Modi’s administration needs at least 1% of gross domestic product -- $30 billion -- to meaningfully respond to the virus outbreak. Meanwhile, the nation’s billionaires are diverting their factories to manufacture medical equipment and pledging to keep paying their staff even as production grinds to a halt. India allowed companies to use their philanthropy funds to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

Reliance Industries Ltd., controlled by India’s richest man Mukesh Ambani, has helped equip a hospital in Mumbai dedicated to patients of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. It will also build quarantine centers and produce 100,000 facemasks a day and other personal protective equipment for health workers. The group’s telecom unit will offer free broadband to enable work-from-home during the lockdown and will pay its lowest paid workers twice a month to protect household incomes.

Ambani joins Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. Chairman Anand Mahindra and Vedanta Resources Ltd. Chairman Anil Agarwal -- a combined worth of more than $40 billion between the trio -- who have so far made pledges.

Indian companies are responding to Modi’s shutdown call. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., Tata Motors Ltd., Toyota Kirloskar Motor, Hero MotoCorp., Samsung Electronics Co. and LG Electronics Inc., Mahindra Group, TVS Motor Co., Kia Motors Corp., Renault Nissan Automotive India Private Ltd., and Yamaha Motor India are among companies that have announced factory suspensions.

Policymakers are aware of the risks of such a move. India -- with a record 5.9 trillion rupees of local corporate debt maturing this year -- faces “waves of default” if cash flows aren’t maintained, the government’s principal economic adviser Sanjeev Sanyal said an interview.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman last week said the government will announce a relief package for coronavirus-affected sectors as soon as possible. The Reserve Bank of India, which is due to review interest rates April 3, announced a 1 trillion rupee cash injection on Monday.

“Let me assure, whatever it takes to keep the cash flow going in the economy will be done,” Sanyal said. “We need to make sure that when we are past the health storm, we still have an economy that has not gotten gridlocked. Because unwinding that would be more difficult.”

New Delhi, May 27: Professor Johan Giesecke of the Karolinska Institute, Sweden, on Wednesday claimed that India will ruin its economy very quickly if it had a severe lockdown.

Claiming that a strict lockdown may disrupt India's economic growth, Giesecke during an interaction with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said: "In India, you will do more harm than good with strict lockdown measures. India will ruin its economy very quickly if it had a severe lockdown."

While calling for a soft lockdown approach in India, he suggested that India has to ease restrictions one by one. It may, however, take months to completely come out of lockdown, he said.

He further criticised countries across the globe for having no post-lockdown strategy.

Emphasising on the disease, the Swedish health expert said that coronavirus is spreading like a wildfire across the world. "It is a very mild disease. Ninety-nine per cent infected people will have very less or no symptoms," he added.

Meanwhile, Ashish Jha, Director Harvard Global Health Institute and a recognised public health official, in interaction with Gandhi, called for a need to go in for an 'aggressive' COVID-19 testing to create confidence among people.

"When the economy is opened post-lockdown, you have to create confidence. There is a need for aggressive testing strategy in high-risk areas," he said.

He asserted that COVID-19 is not the last pandemic in the world, adding that "We are entering the age of large pandemics".

Jha further said that countries like South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have responded the best to COVID-19 pandemic, while Italy, Spain, the US and the UK have responded the worst.

A few days ago, the Gandhi scion had interacted with former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan and Nobel Prize Winner Abhijit Banerjee to discuss various issues related to the COVID-19 crisis.

Jan 22: Microsoft Corp’s chief executive officer said he worries that mistrust between the US and China will increase technology costs and hurt economic growth at a critical time.

Using the $470 billion semiconductor industry as an example of a sector that is already globally interconnected, Satya Nadella said the two countries will have to find ways to work together, rather than creating different supply chains for each country.

“All you are doing is increasing transaction costs for everybody if you completely separate,” Nadella said in an interview with Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait at Bloomberg’s The Year Ahead conference in Davos. That’s a concern as the executive said the world is on the cusp of a revolution around technology and artificial intelligence.

“If we take steps back in trust or increase transaction costs around technology, all we are doing is sacrificing global economic growth,” he said.

The agreement signed last week between the US and China was “not sufficient,” said Nadella, but represented “progress” on the issue of intellectual property protections for US technology companies working with China.

Nadella said he worries about the development of two separate internets, noting that to some degree they already exist “and they will get amplified in the future” with massive technology companies already in place in China.

The viewpoint clashes with Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, who has been sceptical about the idea that ongoing US-China trade tensions could ever lead to a bifurcated system of two internets.

China and the US are the two leading AI superpowers, however the cooling political relations between them have slowed the international collaboration.

Nadella also warned that countries that fail to attract immigrants will lose out as the global tech industry continues to grow. The CEO has previously voiced concern about India’s Citizenship Amendment Act, calling it “sad.”

“However, Nadella said he remained hopeful.

“The fact that there is a 70-year history of nation-building, I think it’s a very strong foundation. I grew up in that country. I’m proud of that heritage. I’m influenced by that experience.”