Vande Mataram or Afzal Guru? Venkaiah Naidu asks Indians

India will suspend all domestic flights from midnight Tuesday, the final piece of a nationwide lockdown that threatens Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attempts to revive an economy already expanding at the slowest pace in more than a decade.

The flight ban compliments a cancellation of all passenger trains through March 31, as authorities try to halt the spread of the coronavirus in the world’s second-most populous country, which has poorly equipped hospitals and inadequate social security. Modi on Monday held a conference call with some of India’s top entrepreneurs and bankers, who urged policymakers to immediately slash interest rates by as much as a full percentage point, transfer cash to the poorest citizens, and suspend loan-repayments.

Over the past three days, state after state has declared curfews and India’s international borders have been shut for most visitors since March 11. India so far has 492 virus cases, including nine deaths. But experts say the country could be on the same trajectory as Italy, where the outbreak quickly escalated, causing hospitals to overflow.
A traveller stands outside a near-empty Delhi Junction Railway Station in Delhi, March 22.

"This is the biggest lockdown in world history,” said Raghu Raman, a former soldier with the Indian Army and founder of the National Intelligence Grid, an umbrella database aimed at countering terrorism. “This strategic pause gives decision-makers more time to arrest the exponential spread of the virus and evaluate trade-offs.”

Controlling the outbreak is crucial for Modi, who remains India’s most popular political leader currently though his economic management has faced criticism. Foreign investors are selling Indian assets at an unprecedented pace and failure to contain deaths and infections could erode some of the prime minister’s personal appeal at home.

Oxford Economics slashed India’s January-March growth forecast to 3%, a number not seen even during the worst of the global financial crisis. The main equity gauge rose about 3% on Tuesday after a record 13.2% plunge Monday, and the rupee stayed near its all-time low.

“A part of the cerebral cortex that senses fear and survival seems to have activated in the minds of investors,” said Umesh Mehta, Mumbai-based head of research at Samco Securities Ltd. “The only relief in this market can come from either policy makers and regulators, or from some positive news that a cure for the pandemic is near.”

Bloomberg Economics estimates Modi’s administration needs at least 1% of gross domestic product -- $30 billion -- to meaningfully respond to the virus outbreak. Meanwhile, the nation’s billionaires are diverting their factories to manufacture medical equipment and pledging to keep paying their staff even as production grinds to a halt. India allowed companies to use their philanthropy funds to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

Reliance Industries Ltd., controlled by India’s richest man Mukesh Ambani, has helped equip a hospital in Mumbai dedicated to patients of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. It will also build quarantine centers and produce 100,000 facemasks a day and other personal protective equipment for health workers. The group’s telecom unit will offer free broadband to enable work-from-home during the lockdown and will pay its lowest paid workers twice a month to protect household incomes.

Ambani joins Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. Chairman Anand Mahindra and Vedanta Resources Ltd. Chairman Anil Agarwal -- a combined worth of more than $40 billion between the trio -- who have so far made pledges.

Indian companies are responding to Modi’s shutdown call. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., Tata Motors Ltd., Toyota Kirloskar Motor, Hero MotoCorp., Samsung Electronics Co. and LG Electronics Inc., Mahindra Group, TVS Motor Co., Kia Motors Corp., Renault Nissan Automotive India Private Ltd., and Yamaha Motor India are among companies that have announced factory suspensions.

Policymakers are aware of the risks of such a move. India -- with a record 5.9 trillion rupees of local corporate debt maturing this year -- faces “waves of default” if cash flows aren’t maintained, the government’s principal economic adviser Sanjeev Sanyal said an interview.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman last week said the government will announce a relief package for coronavirus-affected sectors as soon as possible. The Reserve Bank of India, which is due to review interest rates April 3, announced a 1 trillion rupee cash injection on Monday.

“Let me assure, whatever it takes to keep the cash flow going in the economy will be done,” Sanyal said. “We need to make sure that when we are past the health storm, we still have an economy that has not gotten gridlocked. Because unwinding that would be more difficult.”

Mumbai, May 31: Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut on Sunday alleged that the event held in Ahmedabad to welcome US President Donald Trump in February was responsible for the spread of coronavirus in Gujarat and later in Mumbai and Delhi, which some of his delegates had visited.

Raut also hit out at the Centre saying that the lockdown was implemented without any planning, but now the responsibility of lifting the curbs was left to the states.

The Sena MP said that despite the opposition BJP's attempts to pull down the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, there was no threat to it as its survival is the 'majboori' (compulsion) of all the three ruling allies- Sena, NCP and Congress.

"It can't be denied that the spread of coronavirus in Gujarat was because of the massive public gathering held to welcome US President Donald Trump. Some of the delegates, who accompanied Trump, also visited Mumbai, Delhi, which led to the spread of the virus," Raut said in his weekly column in Shiv Sena mouthpiece 'Saamana'.

On February 24, Trump along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi had taken part in a road-show in Ahmedabad, which was attended by thousands of people. After the road- show, the two leaders had addressed a gathering of over one lakh people at Motera cricket stadium, run by Gujarat Cricket Association (GCA).

Gujarat had reported its first coronavirus cases on March 20, when samples of a man from Rajkot and a woman from Surat tested positive for the disease.

Raut said that any move to pull down the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government and impose President's rule in the state citing its failure to curb the coronavirus pandemic would be suicidal.

"The state had witnessed how President's rule was imposed and lifted as per will six months ago," he said.

"If the handling of coronavirus cases is the basis of imposing President's rule, then it should be done in at least 17 states, including the BJP-ruled ones. Even the central government has failed to curb the pandemic as it had no planning to fight the virus," he said.

"The lockdown was imposed without any planning and now without any plan, the responsibility of lifting it has been left to the states. This chaos will further worsen the crisis," he said.

The Sena MP said that Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has made an excellent analysis of how the lockdown has failed.

"It is shocking that people can indulge in politics by demanding President's rule in Maharashtra for the rise in the coronavirus cases," he said.

BJP MP Narayan Rane had recently met Maharashtra Governor B S Koshyari and demanded imposition of President's rule in view of the the Shiv Sena-led state government's "failure" in tackling the coronavirus pandemic. However, the BJP had later said that it was not trying to destabilise the government.

Speaking about the stability of the government, Raut said that the survival of the MVA government was the 'majboori' (compulsion) of each of the three alliance partners.

"Even if there are internal conflicts among the ruling partners, there is no threat to the government as the allies know that its survival is the 'majboori' of each one of them," Raut said.

He said that the Devendra Fadnavis-led government, in which the BJP and Shiv Sena shared power, saw internal conflicts between the ruling allies, but it completed its full five-year term.

Slamming Fadnavis, who is now the Leader of Opposition in the Legislative Assembly, for predicting downfall of the MVA government saying it will fall on its own due to its internal bickering.

"If the Fadnavis government, which witnessed deep internal conflicts between BJP and Sena, didn't fall, how can this one collapse? The Fadnavis government survived despite the (Sena) ministers carrying their resignation letters in their pockets," Raut wrote.

Fadnavis, in an online media interaction held earlier recently, said he had no intention to destabilise the MVA government and said it would collapse on its own.

"What Fadnavis means is that all attempts (of the BJP) to create discord among the three allies and break the MLAs has failed. Now the opposition hopes that something would happen among the allies and the government would be fall apart," he said.

Raut said NCP president Sharad Pawar is the prominent leader, who laid the foundation stone of the "Thackeray sarkar", and only he can predict the future of the government.

"He continues to say the government is stable and even the Congress is not going anywhere. MVA legislators are not up for sale in horse-trading. Hence, if the opposition says that the government will fall, it is wrong," he said.