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The ILO has warned that if another Covid-19 wave hits in the second half of 2020, there would be global working-hour loss of 11.9 percent - equivalent to the loss of 340 million full-time jobs.

According to the 5th edition of International Labour Organisation (ILO) Monitor: Covid-19 and the world of work, the recovery in the global labour market for the rest of the year will be uncertain and incomplete.

The report said that there was a 14 percent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs.

The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated. The highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels even in the best scenario, the agency warned.

The baseline model – which assumes a rebound in economic activity in line with existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace restrictions and a recovery in consumption and investment – projects a decrease in working hours of 4.9 percent (equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs) compared to last quarter of 2019.

It says that in the pessimistic scenario, the situation in the second half of 2020 would remain almost as challenging as in the second quarter.

“Even if one assumes better-tailored policy responses – thanks to the lessons learned throughout the first half of the year – there would still be a global working-hour loss of 11.9 per cent at the end of 2020, or 340 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019,” it said.

The pessimistic scenario assumes a second pandemic wave and the return of restrictions that would significantly slow recovery. The optimistic scenario assumes that workers’ activities resume quickly, significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation. With this exceptionally fast recovery, the global loss of working hours would fall to 1.2 per cent (34 million full-time jobs).

The agency said that under the three possible scenarios for recovery in the next six months, “none” sees the global job situation in better shape than it was before lockdown measures began.

“This is why we talk of an uncertain but incomplete recovery even in the best of scenarios for the second half of this year. So there is not going to be a simple or quick recovery,” ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said.

The new figures reflect the worsening situation in many regions over the past weeks, especially in developing economies. Regionally, working time losses for the second quarter were: Americas (18.3 percent), Europe and Central Asia (13.9 percent), Asia and the Pacific (13.5 percent), Arab States (13.2 percent), and Africa (12.1 percent).

The vast majority of the world’s workers (93 per cent) continue to live in countries with some sort of workplace closures, with the Americas experiencing the greatest restrictions.

During the first quarter of the year, an estimated 5.4 percent of global working hours (equivalent to 155 million full-time jobs) were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. Working- hour losses for the second quarter of 2020 relative to the last quarter of 2019 are estimated to reach 14 per cent worldwide (equivalent to 400 million full-time jobs), with the largest reduction (18.3 per cent) occurring in the Americas.

The ILO Monitor also found that women workers have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, creating a risk that some of the modest progress on gender equality made in recent decades will be lost, and that work-related gender inequality will be exacerbated.

The severe impact of Covid-19 on women workers relates to their over-representation in some of the economic sectors worst affected by the crisis, such as accommodation, food, sales and manufacturing.

Globally, almost 510 million or 40 percent of all employed women work in the four most affected sectors, compared to 36.6 percent of men, it said.

The report said that women also dominate in the domestic work and health and social care work sectors, where they are at greater risk of losing their income and of infection and transmission and are also less likely to have social protection.

The pre-pandemic unequal distribution of unpaid care work has also worsened during the crisis, exacerbated by the closure of schools and care services.

Even as countries have adopted policy measures with unprecedented speed and scope, the ILO Monitor highlights some key challenges ahead, including finding the right balance and sequencing of health, economic and social and policy interventions to produce optimal sustainable labour market outcomes; implementing and sustaining policy interventions at the necessary scale when resources are likely to be increasingly constrained and protecting and promoting the conditions of vulnerable, disadvantaged and hard-hit groups to make labour markets fairer and more equitable.

“The decisions we adopt now will echo in the years to come and beyond 2030. Although countries are at different stages of the pandemic and a lot has been done, we need to redouble our efforts if we want to come out of this crisis in a better shape than when it started,” Ryder said. 

Kashmir, Mar 3: Four days after the National Investigation Agency made a major breakthrough in the Pulwama terror attack case over a year after the bombing, arresting one person who had sheltered the suicide bomber Adil Ahmad Dar, the NIA on Tuesday arrested two more people in the case - a father-daughter duo - who had also provided shelter to the bomber, officials said.

The NIA also claimed that the video of the suicide bomber was also recorded at their residence and released by the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) terror group from Pakistan after the attack. An NIA spokesperson in Delhi said: "Two more persons have been arrested by the agency in the Pulwama terror attack case and they have been identified as Insha Jan, 23, and her father Tariq Ahmed Shah, 50, who works as a tipper driver."

The official said that the father-daughter duo have been arrested from Hakripora area in Pulwama for their involvement in the attack. The two were arrested on early Tuesday morning after senior officials of the NIA raided their house on Monday night.

A senior NIA official related to the probe told IANS: "The video of Dar, who attacked the CRPF convoy, was recorded at the home of the duo. And the same video was released soon after the Pulwama terror attack by the JeM terrorists from a Pakistani IP address."

He said, "The video was shared by them to their handlers in Pakistan."

The spokesperson further claimed that during the probe Tariq Ahmed Shah disclosed that his house in Hakripora area was used by Dar, Mohammad Umar Farooq, a Pakistani terrorist and IED maker, Kamran - another Pakistani terrorist (both were later killed in encounters with security forces), Sameer Ahmed Dar, a Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorist from Pulwama and Mohammad Ismail aka Ibrahim, a Pakistani terrorist.

The spokesperson said that Shah facilitated all the terrorists at his house for sheltering and for planning of the heinous attack on the CRPF convoy. He said Jan, daughter of Shah, facilitated the terrorists at their home and provided food and other logistics during their stay on more than 15 occasions for two to four days each time, in their house during the year 2018-2019.

"Initial interrogation has revealed that Jan was in constant touch with Farooq and was in communication with him over telephone and other social media applications," the spokesperson said. The fresh arrests of the two accused brings the total number of arrests in the case to three.

The arrests were made on the revelations of Shakir Bashir Magrey, who was arrested by the anti-terror probe agency on February 28. According to senior NIA officials, more arrests will be made in the coming days. Magrey, a resident of Hajibal, Kakapora in Pulwama district of Jammu & Kashmir, is an overground worker (OGW) of the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM).

According to agency sources, Magrey allegedly provided shelter and other logistical assistance to the Pulwama suicide bomber. He was sent to 15 days' NIA custody by a special NIA court in Jammu & Kashmir on Friday. During interrogation, Magrey revealed that he had harboured Dar and Pakistan-based terrorist Mohammad Umar Farooq in his house from late 2018 till the attack in February 2019 and assisted them in the preparation of the Improvised Explosive Device (IED). His shop is located near Lethpora bridge, and as advised by Mohammad Umar, he started conducting reconnaissance of the movement of CRPF convoys on Jammu-Srinagar Highway in January 2019, and informed Mohammad Umar and Adil Ahmad Dar about it.

Magrey was also involved in modifying the Maruti Eeco car and fitting the IED into it in early February, 2019 and was introduced to Adil Ahmad Dar in mid-2018 by Mohammad Umar and he became a full-time OGW of JeM.

"During his initial interrogation, he disclosed that on several occasions, he collected and delivered arms, ammunition, cash and explosive material to JeM terrorists, including those involved in the Pulwama attack," the agency had said on February 28.

"During investigation, the make, model and number of the car used in the attack was quickly ascertained by NIA to be a Maruti Eeco through forensic examination of the tiny remnants of the car which were found at the spot during extended searches," the agency stated.

"This has been corroborated by accused Shakir Bashir Magrey. The explosives used in the attack were determined to be ammonium nitrate, nitro-glycerin and RDX, through forensic investigation," it said.

Thiruvananthapuram, Apr 1: A day after the Kerala Government issued orders to provide special alcohol passes on doctor's prescription to tipplers, who exhibit withdrawal symptoms, the Excise Department received 40 applications from across the state.

Speaking to ANI, a Senior Excise Official said, "Around 40 people approached us with doctor's prescriptions to get liquor passes across the State. We will forward it to Beverages Corporation and they will conduct home delivery of liquor."

Ernakulam topped the list with eight applications, while Kottayam Excise Office received four and Thiruvananthapuram office received three applications.

"As per the notification we received, a maximum of three litre of alcohol can be provided in a week for a person. For availing liquor again they will have to submit fresh application for the liquor pass," the official added.

An order in this regard was issued by the government on Monday night which outlines the necessary steps to be taken by a person with withdrawal symptoms to purchase alcohol.

As per the order, any individual with a prescription from a government doctor or a doctor from a Taluk hospital or government hospital, where the doctor mentions the patient's "Alcohol Withdrawal Symptoms" can submit the prescription for alcohol to the nearest Excise Range office.

A form also has been provided which should be duly filled to get the liquor pass. The Excise Department after the scrutiny may allow the person to buy Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL) from the beverages corporation.

However, the Kerala Government Medical Officers Association (KGMOA) came out against the order, saying that doctors affiliated with the organisation will not give a prescription for liquor. Further, in a statement issued they said they are observing a 'black day' on Wednesday in protest against the government move.

The Indian Medical Association (IMA) also had termed the direction by the Kerala government 'unscientific' and said doctors had no legal obligation to prescribe alcohol.

After the liquor ban was enforced in view of the lockdown, Kerala has witnessed a number of suicide cases allegedly connected with withdrawal symptoms.

Announcing the decision Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had also mentioned that the government was issuing such a direction following reports of people developing suicidal tendencies due to the unavailability of alcohol.