Venkaiah Naidu takes oath as Vice-President of India

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

Jaipur, Jul 20: In a startling revelation, Rajasthan Congress MLA Giriraj Singh Malinga has claimed that rebel leader Sachin Pilot offered him Rs 35 crore to switch to the BJP but he refused. 

Speaking to the media in Rajasthan capital Jaipur, Malinga, who represents Bari constituency, said he had informed Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot about Pilot’s “offer”.

“I, too, had offers but I refused. I had spoken to Sachin ji, he asked me to switch sides and I refused. This is a wrong thing, I will not do it for money,” Malinga said.

“I said that when we left Bahujan (BSP, in 2008), where one has to give money to get a ticket, whereas in Congress and BJP, that is not the system. I was offered a lot of money. Sachin Pilot had said money is not an issue, you ask what you want and you will get… Rs 35 crore or more, but I said it is wrong,” he added.

Malinga said he had had the conversation with Pilot 2-3 times, first in December during the panchayat delimitation, and later before the Rajya Sabha elections last month.

He added that the BJP had never reached out to him, and neither had he spoken to them. “I have no animosity with Pilot but I am speaking the truth,” he said.

The state plunged into a political crisis after former deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot declared rebellion on 12 July, claiming to have the support of 30 MLAs. By the next day, however, he could not prove the support of more than 18 legislators.

On 14 July, 19 MLAs, including Pilot, were served notices by Speaker C.P. Joshi, who asked them to respond by Friday after a petition filed by the chief whip of Congress sought their disqualification from the state assembly. The party also sacked Pilot and two Rajasthan cabinet ministers from their respective posts the same day.