Venkaiah Naidu takes oath as Vice-President of India

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

The unexpected lockdown to prevent spread of covid–19 has caused a serious damage to the lives of Indian expatriates irrespective of laborers and entrepreneurs in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Different stories of expatriates' ordeals are emerging from the region. 

Abdul Razaq, hailing from Udupi in Karnataka has been running small scale business at Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, based on oil refinery projects of the government. He was undergoing medical treatment for his cancer which is in fist stage. He explaines his ordeals caused by lockdown and stopping the flight facility. 

“I was regularly visiting home country for the treatment of cancer. Now I cannot go as international flight service has been stopped. I expect that government will hear problems of expatriates and will arrange facilities to take us back to home”, he said.

Mubeen from Bengaluru was working on temporary basis  for a company in Jubail. He had lost his jobs like some of his colleagues due to the lockdown.

“As everything was alright, I had brought my parents recently to Saudi Arabia on a visit visa. Things changed drastically with covid-19 attack. Continuous lockdown caused burden over the company and they removed temporary employees like me to control possible losses” he said.

“Now owner of the flat has been harassing me for the rent. I do not have money either to pay rent or to cover daily family expenses. I do not know what to do further”, he added. 

Iqbal from Mangaluru left for Saudi Arabia to help his family. He got a job in a juce centre in Dammam recently. Corona lockdown made his life difficult. He is eager to return his home country. 

“I came to Saudi Arbia because of financial difficulties as I had not found any job with good salary there. I thought I can earn well by going to Saudi Arabia. However, here too the salary was not so good. Now juice center is closed due to lockdown and sponsor is giving very small amount of money as salary through which we cannot afford our expenses and our families back in home,” he said.

“Here It is not easy get help of fellow Indians since most of them have their own ordeals. I would like to return home country; there however we can manage to get help of friends and relatives. I am looking forward the help of Indian government to start air facility for stranded NRIs,” he said. 

Mohsin from Mysuru is a taxi driver in Dammam, Saudi Arabia. He was earning on commission basis. Now Saudi government banned movement of taxis in the region, which pushed him and his fellow taxi drivers into trouble.

“We were earning commissions daily on the basis of trips. Now we cannot move outside with taxi since it may cause us to pay the fine of SR.10000. How can I manage my expenses and family members in home?”, he asked.

There are cases of pregnant women who have to return India for delivery. Those who brought family here on visit visa will not have insurance. Delivery charges and any kind of medical facilities without insurance in Saudi Arabia is very expensive. Expatriate Indians with such problems are awaiting government's help.

“I had brought my wife on one year visit visa. Now she is pregnant and I have to send her back to home for delivery. If lockdown continues, it is difficult to send back and we have to spend big amounts for delivery without insurance. It is a big burden to me as I work for small salary in a company”, said Yunus from Hyderabad, who is living in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

Lockdown is haunting even entrepreneurs in Saudi Arabia. Most of expatriates in the industrial hub of Jubail are doing business based on Saudi Government’s oil refinery projects. Saudi Arabia temporarily stopped most of the projects as part of public health safety measures to maintain social distance. 

“We are doing business based on oil refinery projects. Now projects are stopped. We brought around 1100 people on work permit visa on temporary basis. And also, we have around 1200 permanent workers. It is a big burden to provide them with food, accommodation and salary. It may cause a big loss for our company”, said owner of expatriates company, Sheikh Mohammed.

Saudi Arabia had reported first corona virus affected case in March 2, 2020. At the end of March, it was 1600 and now it already corssed 6000. Saudi Health ministry has cautioned the number of affected people may rise 10000 to 200,000 and directed for more precautionary measures. In such case, the Indian expatriates may have to face crisis in the region. 

Indian expatriate organizations are demanding for immediate intervention of Indian government to ensure better quarantine facility and treatment of NRIs in Saudi Arabia as the cases are increasing rapidly. The condition of laborers in some of the camps are such that seven to eight people should share a single bed room. 

“Normally if there is a flat, it will consist three to four bed rooms. In single bedroom companies will provide three four bunk beds and six to eight people should share the room. In such cases, if a person affected with virus it will spread quickly to others. Thus, Indian government should ensure quarantine facility for NRIs”, says Wasim Rabbani, president of Indian Social Forum, Eastern Region, Saudi Arabia. 

President of Karnataka Non Residential Indians, A forum for the NRI organizations of Karnataka, Zakaria Muzain says Indian Government should immediately interfere to bring back those stranded NRIs who wish to return home. Government should intervene to pressure Indian embassy to take the issues of troubled expatriates. 

“Government should make special flight arrangement for such NRIs in trouble. It should also arrange quarantine facility for those who return to India. Already there are many Non-Governmental charity organization which have come forward to give their facilities for NRIs”, he said. 

NRIs from all categories are looking forward for the help of Indian government. It is important to Indian government to take quick action as the problem is increasing in Saudi Arabia.

New Delhi, Jun 10: India on Wednesday reported a spike of 9,985 more COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, taking the country's COVID-19 count to 2,76,583, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

279 deaths were reported in the last 24 hours taking the total death toll to 7,745.

The total number of active cases has reached 1,33,632 while 1,35,205 patients have recovered. While one person has migrated.

With 90,787 cases, Maharashtra reported the highest number of coronavirus cases in the country followed by Tamil Nadu with 34,914 cases.

According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), 1,45,216 samples were tested in the last 24 hours while overall 50,61,332 samples have been tested so far.