Venkaiah Naidu too blames previous govt for price hike by Modi govt

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

Mumbai, Apr 14: The Shiv Sena and NCP said Prime Minister Narendra Modis address to the nation on Tuesday lacked substance as he did not suggest ways to strengthen the economy or a relief package for the poor and those worst hit by the lockdown.

Shiv Sena spokesperson Manisha Kayande also took a dig at the prime minister, saying he thankfully did not give any activity to people this time like clanging utensils or lighting lamps.

Modi on Tuesday announced that the lockdown across the country will be extended till May 3, saying the measure has produced a significant outcome in containing the infection.

He said implementation of the lockdown will be strictly ensured in its second phase and detailed guidelines will be brought out on Wednesday to ensure that outbreak does not spread to new areas.

Some relaxations may be allowed after April 20 in places where there are no hotspots, he said.

Kayande said Modi could have announced extension of the lockdown on Wednesday itself along with the new guidelines, instead of declaring it separately.

"He could have elaborated steps to be taken to tackle the coronavirus, relaxing restrictions on movements in different areas (depending upon threat posed by the disease)," she said.

"His speech normally is more of a rhetoric than substance. Thankfully, he did not give any other event to the people like lighting up lamps or clanging utensils. There was nothing substantial (in the address), the only takeaway was that the lockdown has been extended, she added.

Maharashtra Minister and NCP national spokesman Nawab Malik noted that Modi talked about helping the poor.

"But, he could have announced a package on behalf of the central government to help the poor, those working in the unorganised sector who are the worst hit due to the lockdown.

There was no mention of it anywhere," Malik said.

Another NCP spokesman Mahesh Tapase said it was expected that the prime minister would address the economic concerns being faced by the country.

"The least to expect was the announcement of a slew of measures to kick-start the economy in a phased manner as and when the restrictions are lifted, he added.

Tapase said the employers and employees wanted to know from the government how recession and unemployment will be tackled in the time to come.

"Access to capital for business, especially for MSMEs and agriculture, is a big concern. Supply and logistics is the cornerstone of economic activity which has come to a virtual standstill," he said.

The 2020-21 fiscal looks grim and hence, the right stimulus from the government coupled with a renewed zeal by the industry will only bring the economy back on track, he suggested.

New Delhi, Jan 9: The Union government has removed the central security cover of Tamil Nadu Deputy Chief Minister O Paneerselvam and DMK leader M K Stalin, officials said on Thursday.

They said while Paneerselvam had a smaller 'Y+' cover of central paramilitary commandos, Stalin had a larger 'Z+' protection.

The security cover of these two politicians has been taken off from the central security list after a threat assessment review was made by central security agencies and approved by the Union home ministry, they said.

Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) commandos were protecting these two leaders of Tamil Nadu.

However, they said, the central security cover will be formally taken off after the state police takes over their security task, they added.