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New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

Newsroom, Jan 29: Karnataka’s capital has earned the unwelcome distinction of global capital of traffic congestion. According to a report by TomTom, the Netherlands-based global provider of navigation, traffic and map products, Bengaluru beat 415 other cities across 57 countries to earn the title of world's most traffic congested city in 2019.

“Bengaluru takes the top spot this year with drivers in the southern Indian city expecting to spend an average of 71% extra travel time stuck in traffic," TomTom said in the ninth edition of its annual Traffic Index.

Three other Indian cities, namely, Mumbai, Pune and New Delhi are also ranked in the 2019 edition of TomTom’s Traffic Index of the world’s most traffic-congested cities. 

The report released on Tuesday ranks cities by the average time added to a trip. TomTom index also includes details on when congestion is heaviest and lightest, how highways compare with surface streets, and how much time drivers wasted waiting for other drivers to get out of their way.

Following closely on the heels of Bengaluru is Manila, Philippines, with the similar 71% traffic congestion. Among the top five worst traffic affected cities are Mumbai and Pune from India at the fourth and fifth place respectively, while Bogota, Colombia is on third spot.

Delhi, the national capital of India is on the 8th spot, while Moscow (Russia), Lima (Peru), Istanbul (Turkey) and Jakarta (Indonesia) are on 6th, 7th, 9th and 10th spot respectively.

Mumbai recorded a 65% traffic congestion with 9th September, 2019 being the worst day. On an average, a Mumbaikar lost 209 hours in traffic congestion. Pune has 59% traffic congestion with 2nd August, 2019 being the worst day. 193 hours are lost due to congestion. Delhi, on the other hand, has 56% traffic congestion. 23rd October, 2019 was the worst day, while 190 hours are lost in traffic congestion.

Interestingly, among all the four Indian cities, Delhi has the most number of cars. Previous studies have concluded that Delhi has the best road conditions among the Metro cities of India.

If you are wondering what exactly the percentages mean, a 53% congestion level in Bangkok, for example, means that a trip will take 53% more time than it would during Bangkok’s baseline uncongested conditions.

TomTom calculates the baseline per city by analyzing free-flow travel times of all vehicles on the entire road network – recorded 24/7, 365 days a year. The report by Dutch navigation and mapping company ranks cities by the average time added to a trip. It also includes details on when congestion is heaviest and lightest, and how much time drivers wasted waiting for other drivers to get out of their way.