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New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

Jaipur, Mar 11: A 85-year-old man in Jaipur, who had returned from Dubai on February 28, has tested positive for coronavirus, a state government official said on Wednesday.

He was found presumptive positive in the first test on Tuesday and hence, a second test was conducted with fresh samples, the reports of which arrived late Tuesday night, Additional Chief Secretary, Medical and Health, Rohit Kumar Singh, said.

“The man who travelled to Dubai has been tested positive for coronavirus. It has been confirmed now,” Singh said.

“We have also got the manifest of the Spicejet flight he took from Dubai to Jaipur and are doing due diligence on that,” the official said, adding that intense contact tracing was underway.

The man has been kept in isolation at the SMS Hospital here.

“The man came to the hospital on Monday with symptoms of the virus. After the first test, his wife and son too have been kept in isolation at the hospital. The two, however, do not have coronavirus affliction symptoms,” Singh said.

A total of 235 people who came in contact with the octogenarian and his family have already been traced and are being monitored, he said.

Other contacts are also being traced, Singh added.

An Italian couple, who tested positive for COVID-19 last week, are also admitted in the hospital but their condition is improving, he said.

Kochi, Apr 16: A middle-aged man carrying his ailing father on his shoulders walked close to one-kilometre in Kerala’s Punalur when the autorickshaw he was driving was allegedly stopped by the police over the ongoing lockdown. He was bringing back his father from the hospital after he was discharged on Wednesday.

In a video that has gone viral on social media, the man can be seen carrying his bare-bodied father on the shoulders and struggling to handle the weight while a woman carrying the hospital documents, prescriptions and other items, is running along with him.

The incident took place in Punalur town of Kollam district.

The 65-year-old man, a native of Kulathupuzha, was released from the Punalur Taluk Hospital and his son was taking him home when he was stopped on the road. The man has alleged that even after he produced hospital documents, the police refused to let him pass with the autorickshaw.

The vehicle was stopped about a kilometre from their house in the middle of a traffic jam and the family had to walk the rest of the path. He said even after he told the police and showed papers from hospital he was not allowed to go.

After the video went viral in Kerala, the state human rights commission took suo motu cognizance of the incident.

The nationwide lockdown has prevented all non-essential movement in the public space while medical emergencies have been allowed. The extended lockdown will now continue till May 3.

According to the police, the vehicle did not have the patient when it was stopped. The driver was asked to show a declaration document.

He stepped out of the vehicle and walked to the hospital which was 200 metres from the checkpoint and returned carrying his father on the back, said the police.