Vyapam: Act on mantrani & minister's wife, says Cong

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Jerusalem, Jul 23: Merging Israel's technological expertise with India's mass production capabilities, experts from the two countries have joined hands to develop rapid testing for Covid-19 in under 30 seconds.

Israel will soon send a high-level research delegation to India to conduct a series of "final stages of testing" as part of the joint effort to develop the rapid testing kits for Covid-19 .

A high ranking team from the Directorate of Defence Research and Development (DDR&D), in the Ministry of Defense, which has been working with India's DRDO to develop rapid testing for Covid-19 in under 30 seconds, is to leave from Tel Aviv to New Delhi on a special flight in a few days, Israel's Ministry of Defence said in a statement on Thursday.

Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and Ministry of Health are also involved in this unprecedented cooperation between the two countries which aims at "merging Israeli technology with Indian development and production capabilities to allow a swift resumption of normal life alongside the virus".

The DDR&D team will conduct a series of "final stages of testing" to determine the effectiveness of a number of rapid diagnostic solutions with their Indian counterparts.

Since the start of the pandemic, the DDR&D has tested dozens of diagnostic technologies. Some of them have matured and passed initial trials in Israel, however in order to complete testing and prove their effectiveness, these must be tested on a wide range of patients, IMoD said.

The four tech systems that will be tested are - voice test, breathalyzer test based on terra-hertz waves, isothermal test, and polyamino acids test.

"What they all have in common is the ability to detect the presence of the virus in the body quickly- usually within minutes. Developing diagnostic capabilities is a goal for the State of Israel and of many additional countries around the world. It is the most effective way to cut off 'chains of infection', prevent prolonged quarantine and enable the reopening of the global economy," the statement said.

"We hope that the research and development led by the DDR&D together with our excellent industries and academic institutions, will lead to a breakthrough that will change the way we diagnose and fight the virus, while giving the boost necessary to 'restart' our economy," Defense Minister Benny Gantz said.

Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi noted that this cooperation provides a unique opportunity for scientific and technological cooperation that can assist Israel, India and the world in coping both with the pandemic and with the economic crisis that came with it.

The cooperation between Israel and India will enable the delegation and its Indian counterparts, to collect tens of thousands of samples in just ten days, and analyze them using computer systems based on artificial intelligence. This massive sampling will shorten processes and advance the approval of effective technology. All tests will be validated using PCR tests.

"The cooperation between India and Israel on Covid-19 is a good example of harnessing the scientific and technological strengths that the two countries have for larger, common good. It will also further deepen our strategic ties,” India's Ambassador Sanjeev Singla told PTI.

The flight will be carrying some breakthrough emerging Israeli technologies for combatting Covid-19, which have been donated by the Israeli foreign ministry and the private sector, in order to bolster India’s response to the virus outbreak.

The plane will also deliver mechanical ventilators which were given special permission by Israel for export to India.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu have held three telephonic conversations since the outbreak of the pandemic and promised mutual assistance in dealing with the virus, committing to joint technological and scientific research between the countries.

The Israeli media widely reported that Modi lifted a ban on the export of Hydroxychloroquine at Netanyahu's request.

"The past few years have cemented the strategic relations between India and Israel and have included two historical visits of the Prime Ministers in Israel and in India," a press statement from the ministry of defence said.

"India seeks to integrate advanced technologies in its hospitals as they prepare to treat massive waves of Covid-19 patients on an Indian scale. The Israeli companies chosen by the MFA, MOD and Israel Defence Forces to be sent to India are potentially given unique access to one of the largest economies in the world to provide monitoring and treatment technologies while significantly reducing contact between the patients and the medical staff," it said.

"By opening the door to India’s market with its development and production capabilities, these Israeli technologies can be mass produced at a lower cost and could in future be jointly exported to third countries," it said.

"The COVID-19 pandemic is a global challenge, so it is only right that the solution be a global scientific cooperation between countries. India and Israel’s military R&D cooperation is well known for its success. I have no doubt the same will be seen in the private sector joined by brilliant scientific minds from both countries to introduce a breakthrough in swift and simple testing procedures,” said Prof. Nati Keller, an infectious diseases specialist from Sheba Medical Center, who is leading the medical side of the delegation.

New Delhi, Jan 5: A masked mob on Sunday entered the Sabarmati Hostel on the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) campus and assaulted several students and professors with sticks and rods.

"I have been brutally attacked by goons wearing masks. I am bleeding. I was brutally beaten up," JNU Students' Union (JNUSU) president Aishe Ghosh told reporters.

She has been admitted to the AIIMS here for treatment.

Several other students were also injured in the incident.

In a video of the incident, a group of goons with their faces covered can be seen assaulting students with wooden sticks and rods.

A tweet from the official handle of the JNUSU said, "Sabarmati Hostel: right now. They are beating the students who are inside. Knocking on doors with rods. People are jumping from balconies. #SOSJNU #EmergencyinJNU."

"Professors who were trying to protect us have been beaten up. These are unknown ABVP goons, not all are students, they have covered their faces, and they are moving towards the hotels near the West Gate. Stay alert. Make human chains. Protect each other. #SOSJNU #EmergencyinJNU," another tweet added.

Meanwhile, the ABVP's JNU unit claimed in a tweet: "Emergency in JNU. Leftist goons of JNU accompained with their cadre from other universities have crossed every limit. They have proceeded with unimaginable violence on ABVP activists of JNU."