As WB gears up for Cyclone Fani, Modi talks to governor

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

Dubai/Abu Dhabi, May 7: A group passengers who are scheduled to fly to Kozhikode on the first COVID-19 Indian repatriation flight have begun streaming in to Terminal 2 at Dubai International Airport.

Wearing masks and gloves, the passengers are now waiting for the medical screening and check-in services to begin.

Airport officials gave entry to the departure terminal only to passengers with tickets.

Naif resident Mahamood P.P, 60, was among the first to reach as he was not informed about the change in the flight schedule, he told Gulf News.

“I reached here at 9.30am as I didn’t get any information about the 2.10pm flight getting rescheduled to the evening,” he said.

Suffering from a heart disease, Mahmood, who works as a juice maker at a juice shop near Naif Police station, said he stepped out of his room for the first time in two months.

“As there were many cases in Naif, I never went out because of my health condition. Since I was not in contact with anyone else other than my roommates who also never went out, I didn’t go for the COVID screening also. I was worried that I might be exposed to infection while waiting for the tests,” he said.

He thanked the Indian Consulate for giving him priority to fly home. “I need to go for my heart checkup. So I wanted to fly home as soon as possible.”

However, he said his son, a civil engineer who came here searching for a job, is not flying back though he is on a visit visa.

“Since the UAE government has allowed people on visit visa to stay here till December, he has decided to try his luck in getting a job,” said Mahamood.

Sneha Thomas, who is eight months pregnant, was also among the first to arrive at the airport.

Her husband Somi Jose came to drop her.

Thomas is among 11 pregnant women flying on the Dubai-Kozhikode flight.

Sharjah resident for 30 years, Mohammed Ali Yaseen, who is also the secretary of the Kerala Muslim Cultural Centre in Sharjah, said he is flying home as the restaurant he was running had to be closed due to a demolition plan of the building.

“Three months ago I got the notice to vacate the building and I had to close the restaurant. I was looking for another shop. But then the coronavirus hit. Now there is no point in me opening me a new shop as those who are already operational are not getting any business.”

He said he decided to drop the plan and go home for now. “My visa and license are still valid. I will try to come back when this pandemic ends and things are better.”

Meanwhile, at the Au Dhabi International Airport, families with kids were given priority to proceed towrards check-in. at terminal 3. The passengers coming in right now were mostly women who were on a visit visa. Pregnant women and the elderly too were given priority.

Feb 4: Amid the agitations against Citizenship Amendment Act, National register of Citizens and National Population Registration across the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday said that there is a "political design" behind all these protests including in Delhi's Jamia and Shaheen Bagh to ruin the harmony of the nation.

"Be it Seelampur, Jamia or Shaheen Bagh, protests held over the past several days regarding the Citizenship Amendment Bill. Is this just a coincidence? No. This is an experiment," said Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his first election rally for Delhi polls at Karkardooma.

"There is a political design behind all these protests including Jamia and Shaheen Bagh. These protests are a conspiracy to divide India. These protests are going to ruin the harmony of the nation," he asserted.

Lambasting the opposition parties including Congress and Aam Aadmi Party for supporting the ongoing protests, he said: "But AAP and Congress are provoking people. Constitution and tricolor are being kept in front and attention is being diverted from the real conspiracy."

"These people were doubting the ability of our forces during surgical strikes. Do citizens of Delhi want such people in power? These people are saving those who want to break India into pieces," he added.

People have been protesting at Jamia and Shaheen Bagh against CAA, NRC and NPR. Members of the Opposition have deemed CAA "discriminatory and anti-Constitution" while the Centre has maintained that the new law has no effect on Indian citizens.

Recently, two firing incidents took place near Jamia Millia Islamia University.On Sunday night, the firing incident was reported near gate number five at the university following which people including some students of the varsity gathered outside the Jamia Nagar police station. They returned from the Jamia Nagar police station after their complaint was registered.

Earlier, a student sustained injuries after a young man fired at the protestors near Jamia.