Wearing cap, mask Adityanath sweeps outside Taj Mahal

New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

Jun 3: Emphasising that airlines are clearly the safest mode of transportation, IndiGo CEO Ronojoy Dutta on Tuesday said there is no evidence yet of coronavirus infection getting transmitted among passengers onboard an aeroplane.

His comments against the backdrop of instances of some passengers, who had taken flights after resumption of domestic air services on May 25, testing positive for coronavirus.

"Those people had the virus before they got on to the aeroplane. What is noteworthy is that they have done the tracing after that. There is no evidence of transmission onboard there... that is a very encouraging sign on the safety of airline travel," he said during an earnings call.

According to him, airlines are clearly the safest mode of transportation and there is no evidence yet of contamination on an aircraft.

"You can come in contaminated but so far there is no evidence of passing it on to a fellow passenger," he noted.

Amid concerns over the coronavirus pandemic, aviation regulator DGCA has asked airlines to ensure that to the extent possible, middle seat in flights should be kept empty.

In this regard, Dutta said the airline would keep the middle seat empty wherever it can and "where we have to fill the middle seat, we will have the extra protective gown".

To a query about possible hedging of fuel prices, he said it would be a dumb idea and that airlines adjust to ups and downs in fuel prices.

"I can't overemphasise what a dumb idea it will be for an airline to hedge fuel prices. I looked at it from different angles and it is not a good idea... we looked at hedging and we talked about it at the board level and we said no," he noted.