"When Economy Is In A Tailspin...": Abhijit Banerjee Advises Government

Agencies
October 15, 2019

New York, Oct 15: Indian-American Abhijit Banerjee, who jointly won the 2019 Nobel Economics Prize with his wife Esther Duflo and Harvard's Michael Kremer, said on Monday that the Indian economy is "doing very badly" even as the government is increasingly recognising that there is a problem.

"The economy is doing very badly in my view," he told a press conference at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology after wining the prize.

When asked about his opinion on the state of the economy in India and its future, he said, "That's a statement not about what will work in the future but about what's going on now. That I'm entitled to have an opinion about."

Referring to the numbers put out by the National Sample Survey, that come out every 1.5 years and give estimates about the average consumption in urban and rural areas in India, Mr Banerjee said, "the fact that we see in that is that between 2014-15 and 2017-18, that number has slightly gone down. And that's the first time such a thing has happened in many many many many many years so that's a very glaring warning sign."

"There is enormous fight going on in India about which data is right and the government has a particular view of (that) all data that is inconvenient to it is wrong. But nonetheless, I think that this is something that I think even the government is increasingly recognising that there is a problem. So the economy slowing very very fast. How fast we don't know, there is this dispute about data but I think fast," he said.

Mr Banerjee added that he does not know exactly what to do. "The government has a large deficit but right now it's sort of at least aiming to please everybody by pretending to hold to some budgetary targets and monetary targets," he said.

He said that in his view when the economy is going into a "tailspin", is the time when "you don't worry so much about monetary stability and you worry a little bit more about demand. I think demand is a huge problem right now in economy."

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman last week in Mumbai evaded a direct reply to a question on whether the government accepts there is an economic slowdown, and said the government is giving relief to all sectors who need help.

She said since the Budget in July, she has been meeting representatives of various industrial sectors, and sector-wise intervention is being made regularly.

Banerjee, Duflo and Harvard professor Kremer jointly won the 2019 Nobel Economics Prize "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty".

Banerjee, 58, and French-American Duflo both work at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) while Kremer is at Harvard University.

In 2003, Mr Banerjee founded the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), along with Duflo and Sendhil Mullainathan, and he remains one of its directors. He also served on the UN Secretary-General''s High-level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development Agenda.

J-PAL, a global network of antipoverty researchers that conducts field experiments, has now become a major center of research, backing work across the world.

Walking into the press conference to a round of applause and standing ovation, Mr Banerjee in his opening remarks said that it is "wonderful" to get the Nobel Prize "because it''s a prize not, I think, for us, but also for the entire movement."

He said about 400 professors are associated in some way with J-PAL''s work and are doing randomised control trials on issues as diverse as US school in the Appalachia to governance problems in Indonesia, getting children immunised in India and getting children under bed nets in Sub Saharan Africa.

"So, this is a movement that, in some ways, we are kind of the beneficiaries of. I think it''s still going to be wonderful for the movement that this prize was given because I think it''s going to make it a little easier to penetrate the many doors that you know are half-open to us or not quite open to us and hopefully bring the message of policy-based on evidence and hard thinking to many other places as well," he said.

When asked how does he feel about being the sixth Nobel laureate from Kolkata, he said "I assume they''re all much more distinguished than me."

On what he hopes to do going forward, he said, "to be honest, we hope that we will get to do more of the same. I think we''re actually quite excited about what we are doing. This was not work that we did a long time ago, we''re excited about what we''re doing now and it''s fun. We''re learning new things. I''m really excited to look at the results from our latest intervention."

"So I think what I hope this will do is just open more opportunities to do more inventive things, but I don''t expect to do something entirely different. I think I''m content with what I''m doing and enjoying it very much," he said.

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News Network
June 15,2020

New Delhi, Jun 15: On Monday, petrol and diesel prices across the country were raised for the ninth consecutive day by 48 paise and 59 paise, respectively.

Petrol price per litre was raised to Rs 76.26 in New Delhi, Rs 83.17 in Mumbai, Rs 79.96 in Chennai, Rs 79.17 in Hyderabad, Rs 78.73 in Bengaluru and Rs 78.10 in Kolkata.

Diesel price per litre was hiked to Rs 74.62 in New Delhi, Rs 73.21 in Mumbai, Rs 72.69 in Chennai, Rs 72.93 in Hyderabad, Rs 70.95 in Bengaluru and Rs 70.33 in Kolkata.

Since 7 June, after ending their 82-day hiatus in daily revision, state-owned oil marketing companies have increased petrol price by Rs 5 per litre and diesel by Rs 5.23 per litre.

These prices are close to levels last seen in October-November 2018 when international oil prices had spiked close to $80 per barrel. In October 2018, petrol price in Mumbai had crossed Rs 90-mark and in Delhi, it was around Rs 83 per litre.

Comparatively, on Monday, Brent crude, the international benchmark for crude oil prices, fell 2.3 percent to $37.84 a barrel over concerns of subdued demand for fuel as new coronavirus infections were reported in China and the US.

The present spike in fuel prices in India could be attributed to the fact that central and state governments, along with oil marketing companies are looking to make up for their loss in revenues due to the lockdown.

Last month, the central government had increased the excise duty on per litre of petrol by Rs 10 and per litre of diesel by Rs 13. Several state governments have also hiked their VAT or cess on fuel in the last month. In fact, now around 70 percent of the retail price of fuel is just some form of tax.

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News Network
January 17,2020

New Delhi, Jan 17: Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia does not have any car on his name, according to information shared in the poll affidavit filed by him for Delhi elections.

In the affidavit, it is also shown that while his self-acquired immovable property remained roughly the same as in 2015. His wife's self-acquired immovable property is worth roughly about Rs 65 lakh, as per his latest affidavit.

In the papers submitted during the nomination for 2015 Delhi polls, the senior AAP leader had declared that he owned a Maruti Swift car of make 2013.

However, in his 2020 affidavit, he has mentioned "nil" in the column for motor vehicles and other means of transport.

In the affidavit submitted on Thursday, his moveable assets were declared worth Rs 4,74,888 for 2018-19, as against Rs 4,92,624 for 2013-14.

In 2015, Sisodia had informed in his affidavit that he had bought a property in Vasundhara, Ghaziabad, worth Rs 5.07 lakh in April 2001. The approximate current market value of self-acquired property in 2015 was Rs 12 lakh.

In his current affidavit, the AAP leader has mentioned the same property. However, the approximate current market value of self-acquired property in 2020 has increased to Rs 21 lakh.

In his affidavit for the 2015 polls, Sisodia had also said that his wife had purchased a property in March 2008 costing Rs 8.70 lakh. At that time, the approximate value of her self-acquired property was Rs 20 lakh.

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News Network
January 13,2020

Jan 13: For the first time in years, the government of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is playing defense. Protests have sprung up across the country against an amendment to India’s laws — which came into effect on Friday — that makes it easier for members of some religions to become citizens of India. The government claims this is simply an attempt to protect religious minorities in the Muslim-majority countries that border India; but protesters see it as the first step toward a formal repudiation of India’s constitutionally guaranteed secularism — and one that must be resisted.

Modi was re-elected prime minister last year with an enhanced majority; his hold over the country’s politics is absolute. The formal opposition is weak, discredited and disorganized. Yet, somehow, the anti-Citizenship Act protests have taken hold. No political party is behind them; they are generally arranged by student unions, neighborhood associations and the like.

Yet this aspect of their character is precisely what will worry Modi and his right-hand man, Home Minister Amit Shah. They know how to mock and delegitimize opposition parties with ruthless efficiency. Yet creating a narrative that paints large, flag-waving crowds as traitors is not quite that easy.

For that is how these protests look: large groups of young people, many carrying witty signs and the national flag. They meet and read the preamble to India’s Constitution, into which the promise of secularism was written in the 1970’s.

They carry photographs of the Constitution’s drafter, the Columbia University-trained economist and lawyer B. R. Ambedkar. These are not the mobs the government wanted. They hoped for angry Muslims rampaging through the streets of India’s cities, whom they could point to and say: “See? We must protect you from them.” But, in spite of sometimes brutal repression, the protests have largely been nonviolent.

One, in Shaheen Bagh in a Muslim-dominated sector of New Delhi, began simply as a set of local women in a square, armed with hot tea and blankets against the chill Delhi winter. It has now become the focal point of a very different sort of resistance than what the government expected. Nothing could cure the delusions of India’s Hindu middle class, trained to see India’s Muslims as dangerous threats, as effectively as a group of otherwise clearly apolitical women sipping sweet tea and sharing their fears and food with anyone who will listen.

Modi was re-elected less than a year ago; what could have changed in India since then? Not much, I suspect, in most places that voted for him and his party — particularly the vast rural hinterland of northern India. But urban India was also possibly never quite as content as electoral results suggested. India’s growth dipped below 5% in recent quarters; demand has crashed, and uncertainty about the future is widespread. Worse, the government’s response to the protests was clearly ill-judged. University campuses were attacked, in one case by the police and later by masked men almost certainly connected to the ruling party.

Protesters were harassed and detained with little cause. The courts seemed uninterested. And, slowly, anger began to grow on social media — not just on Twitter, but also on Instagram, previously the preserve of pretty bowls of salad. Instagram is the one social medium over which Modi’s party does not have a stranglehold; and it is where these protests, with their photogenic signs and flags, have found a natural home. As a result, people across urban India who would never previously have gone to a demonstration or a political rally have been slowly politicized.

India is, in fact, becoming more like a normal democracy. “Normal,” that is, for the 2020’s. Liberal democracies across the world are politically divided, often between more liberal urban centers and coasts, and angrier, “left-behind” hinterlands. Modi’s political secret was that he was that rare populist who could unite both the hopeful cities and the resentful countryside. Yet this once magic formula seems to have become ineffective. Five of India’s six largest cities are not ruled by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party in any case — the financial hub of Mumbai changed hands recently. The BJP has set its sights on winning state elections in Delhi in a few weeks. Which way the capital’s voters will go is uncertain. But that itself is revealing — last year, Modi swept all seven parliamentary seats in Delhi.

In the end, the Citizenship Amendment Act is now law, the BJP might manage to win Delhi, and the protests might die down as the days get unmanageably hot and state repression increases. But urban India has put Modi on notice. His days of being India’s unifier are over: From now on, like all the other populists, he will have to keep one eye on the streets of his country’s cities.

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