World Bank lowers India's growth forecast

Agencies
October 11, 2017

Washington, Oct 11: India's GDP may slow from 8.6 per cent in 2015 to 7.0 per cent in 2017 because of disruptions by demonetisation and the GST, the World Bank has forecast and warned that subdued private investment due to internal bottlenecks could put downside pressures on the country's potential growth.

The International Monetary Fund yesterday also lowered India's growth projection to 6.7 per cent in 2017, 0.5 percentage points less than its previous two forecasts and slower than China's 6.8 per cent.

India's economic momentum has been affected by disruptions from the withdrawal of banknotes and uncertainties around the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the World Bank said in its South Asia Economic Focus, a biannual economic update.

As a result, growth is expected to slow from 8.6 per cent in 2015 to 7.0 per cent in 2017. Sound policies around balancing public spending with private investment could accelerate growth to 7.3 per cent by 2018, it said.

While sustained growth is expected to translate to continued poverty reduction, more focus could be made to help benefit the informal economy more, said the report released here ahead of the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

A slowdown in India's growth rate, the bank said, has also affected the growth rate of South Asia. As a result, South Asia has fallen to second place after East Asia and the Pacific.

"Real GDP growth slowed to 7.1 per cent in 2016, from 8 per cent in 15/16, and further to 5.7 per cent in Q1 FY2017," it said.

On the one hand, public and private consumption gained pace: after implementation of the 7th central pay commission recommendations; and due to the revival in rural demand after normal monsoon and agricultural impetus. On the other hand, overall demand slowed as public investments started to wane.

According to the bank, the GST is expected to disrupt economic activity in early 2018, but the momentum may pick-up.

Evidence suggests that post-GST, manufacturing and services contracted sharply, it said.

The growth activity is expected to stabilise within a quarter maintaining the annual GDP growth at 7.0 per cent in 2018.

Growth is projected to increase gradually to 7.4 per cent by 2020, underpinned by a recovery in private investments, which are expected to be crowded-in by the recent increase in public capex and an improvement in the investment climate (partly due to the passage of the GST and Bankruptcy Code, and measures to attract the FDI), the bank report said.

The most substantial medium-term risks are associated with private investment recovery, which continues to face several domestic impediments such as corporate debt overhang, regulatory and policy challenges, along with the risk of an imminent increase in US interest rates, it said.

"If the internal bottlenecks are not alleviated, subdued private investment would put downside pressures on India's potential growth," the report said. Downside risks to the global economy and accordingly to export growth and capital flows are also substantial given the possibility of monetary policy normalisation in the USA and risks of protectionism, it added.

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News Network
January 8,2020

Sydney, Jan 8:  Authorities in Australia will begin five-day campaign to kill thousands of camels in the country as they drink too much water amid the wildfires.  The government will send helicopters to kill up to 10,000 camels in a five-day campaign starting Wednesday, The Hill reported citing The Australian.

Marita Baker, an Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara (APY) (large, sparsely-populated local government area for Aboriginal Australians) executive board member, said that the camels were causing problems in her community of Kanypi.

"We have been stuck in stinking hot and uncomfortable conditions, feeling unwell, because the camels are coming in and knocking down fences, getting in around the houses and trying to get to water through air conditioners,'' she said.

The planned killing of the camels comes at a time the country is ravaged by wildfires since November. The disaster has killed more than a dozen people and caused the displacement or deaths of 480 million animals, according to University of Sydney researchers.

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News Network
February 21,2020

New Delhi, Feb 21: Global terror financing watchdog FATF on Friday decided continuation of Pakistan in the "Grey List" and warned the country that stern action will be taken if it fails to check flow of money to terror groups like the LeT and the JeM, sources said.

The decision has been taken at the Financial Action Task Force's plenary in Paris.

The FATF decided to continue Pakistani in the "Grey List". The FATF also warned Pakistan that if it doesn't complete a full action plan by June, it could lead to consequences on its businesses, a source said.

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Agencies
March 24,2020

Beijing, Mar 24:  China reported 78 new confirmed cases, including 74 imported infections, while the death toll from the novel coronavirus increased to 3,277 after seven more fatalities were confirmed from the COVID-19, health officials said on Tuesday.

The overall confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland have reached 81,171 by the end of Monday. This included 3,277 people who died of the disease, 4,735 patients who were still being treated and 73,159 patients discharged after recovery, the National Health Commission (NHC) said on Tuesday.

The NHC said, 78 new confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported on the Chinese mainland on Monday, of which 74 were imported from abroad taking the number of overseas cases to 427.

Also on Monday, seven deaths and 35 new suspected cases were reported on the mainland with all the deaths in Hubei Province.

The total COVID-19 cases in Beijing climbed to 522 with eight deaths prompting local governments of Beijing as well as Shanghai to announce that all overseas arrivals will be subjected to nucleic acid tests to ensure proper detection.

Of the 74 newly imported cases, 31 were reported in Beijing, 14 in Guangdong, nine in Shanghai, five in Fujian, four in Tianjin, three in Jiangsu, two in Zhejiang and Sichuan respectively, and one in Shanxi, Liaoning, Shandong and Chongqing respectively, the NHC said.

Beijing is already diverting all international flights to different cities where the passengers will be quarantined for 14 days before arriving in the city.

The NHC said 132 people were still suspected of being infected with the virus.

Coronavirus epicentre Wuhan has reported one confirmed case after a gap of five days prompting officials to begin to ease restrictions.

Wuhan also reported seven new deaths, bringing the total number of deaths in the city and Hubei province for which Wuhan is the capital to 3,160.

The province also saw 444 patients discharged from hospital after recovery on Monday. Among the 4,200 patients being treated in hospital, 1,203 were still in severe condition and another 336 in critical condition, the local health commission said.

By the end of Monday, 356 confirmed cases, including four deaths have been reported in Hong Kong, which has restricted the entry of foreigners into the city. Also a total of 25 confirmed cases were reported in Macao and 195 in Taiwan including two deaths, state-run Xinhua news agency reporrted.

After days of decline in coronavirus cases, China on Monday said that COVID-19 has effectively been "stemmed" in the country and it started easing severe restrictions imposed on Wuhan's 11 million people who were under lockdown since January 23.

The authorities began relaxing restrictions in Wuhan as it reported no new case for the fifth consecutive day on Monday.

Significantly, the Central Leading Group (CLP), headed by Premier Li Keqiang which is coordinating efforts to contain the virus since January 23, said the virus has been curtailed in the country as well as in Wuhan.

"The meeting noted that the spread of the virus nationwide, particularly in the epicentre of Wuhan, has been effectively stemmed," an official statement said on Monday.

The meeting, however, warned that the risks for sporadic infections and localised outbreaks have not gone away. With the pandemic rampaging across the world, the situation remains complex and challenging.

"Wuhan city and Hubei province should stay focused on medical treatment and community-level containment as the two key priorities. They should continue to treat the severe cases, promptly admit new cases, and advance epidemiological investigations," the meeting said.

In Wuhan, officials said people are allowed to go back to work while restrictions on the public transport are gradually being eased.

The Hubei province and its capital Wuhan with over 56 million people were under lockdown since January 23. The vicious virus broke out in city, reportedly at a live animal market in December last year and became virulent inflicting thousands of people in the city and province catching the government off guard.

As the country saw a surge in imported infections, the Chinese government announced that all international flights scheduled to arrive in Beijing will be redirected to airports in 12 other Chinese cities from Monday.

International passengers flying to Beijing will instead land at airports in 12 cities including Shanghai, Tianjin, Nanjing and Shenyang as their first points of entry, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) said in a statement.

On Monday, China said international travellers should "think twice" about choosing Beijing for flight transfer in view of the restrictions.

Starting from Monday, all international flights scheduled to arrive in Beijing will be redirected to airports in 12 other Chinese cities, Liu Haitao, an official with China's National Immigration Administration said.

Passengers would go through entry procedures and quarantine measures at the designated cities' airports before they continue their flights to Beijing, Liu said, urging travellers to reserve enough time for their next flights to make sure that they do not miss their outbound flights.

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