World Bank predicts India will remain fastest growing economy in 2019-20

Agencies
January 9, 2019

United Nations, Jan 9: Fuelled by policy reforms and rebound in credit, India's economy is forecast to expand by 7.5 per cent during the 2019-20 fiscal year and retain its position as the fastest growing major economy in a world of slowing growth, according to the World Bank.

The Bank`s Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report released on Tuesday kept the forecasts made for India in its June report for the next fiscal year and the 7.3 per cent estimate for the current fiscal year, up from 6.7 per cent recorded in 2017-18.

However, it warned that in South Asia, the upcoming election cycle "elevates political uncertainty in the region". "The challenging political environment could adversely affect the ongoing reform agenda and economic activity in some countries," it added.

The GEP presented a gloomy outlook for the world as a whole: Growth was projected to slow to 2.9 per cent for the current year, down from the estimated 3 per cent for the last year and to grow only by 2.8 per cent in the next two years.

It blamed trade tensions and slowdown in manufacturing for the pessimism.

The report said: "India is forecast to accelerate to 7.5 per cent in fiscal year 2019-20 as consumption remains robust and investment growth continues, and as (economic) activity benefits from recent policy reforms and a rebound in credit."

For the 2020-21 and 2021-22 fiscal years, the GEP has projected a growth rate of 7.5 per cent.

The World Bank`s 7.5 per cent growth projection for the next fiscal year is slightly higher than the 7.4 per cent made by the International Monetary Fund last October.

But the GEP`s estimate of 7.3 per cent for the current fiscal year falls between India`s Central Statistics Office (CSO) figure of 7.2 per cent and the Reserve Bank of India`s 7.4 per cent.

China`s growth rate was estimated to be 6.5 per cent last year and forecast to be 6.2 per cent this year and the next, and going down further to 6 per cent in 2021.

In South Asia, Pakistan`s growth rate is forecast to fall drastically from last fiscal year`s 5.8 per cent to 3.7 per cent this fiscal year "as financial conditions tighten in the face of rising inflation and external vulnerabilities". In 2019-20 it is forecast to rebound to 4.8 per cent.

Bangladesh grew faster than India with 7.9 per cent in the last fiscal year "driven mainly by private consumption and supported by remittance inflows", the report said. But its growth is forecast to fall to 7 per cent in the current fiscal year.

Releasing the report, the Bank`s Chief Executive Officer Kristalina Georgieva said: "At the beginning of 2018 the global economy was firing on all cylinders, but it lost speed during the year and the ride could get even bumpier in the year ahead.

"As economic and financial headwinds intensify for emerging and developing countries, the world`s progress in reducing extreme poverty could be jeopardised. To keep the momentum, countries need to invest in people, foster inclusive growth, and build resilient societies."

According to the GEP, the advanced economies are the worst performers, with a growth rate of 2.2 per cent last year that is forecast to steadily fall to 2 per cent this year, and to 1.6 per cent and 1.5 per cent in the next two years.

The US, though, is faring better in that group with a 2.9 per cent growth last year and projected growth rates of 2.5 this year and 1.7 per cent and 1.6 in the next years.

Comments

Puresanghi
 - 
Wednesday, 9 Jan 2019

No doubt it is a press release from  nagpur HQ.  Since the election dates are nearing  all we can obaserve such dirty media politics.

What ever  - Only Ballot voting will save INDIA or later 2019-20 will be a TICK 20 era for all peace loving Patriot INDIANS.

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News Network
May 18,2020

As many as employees of Zee News have tested positive for the coronavirus, Editor-in-Chief Sudhir Chaudhary said on Monday. Most of them are asymptomatic, he said, tweeting an official statement from Zee News about the situation.

The organisation said that on May 15, one of its employees tested positive for the coronavirus. Following this, the company started testing employees who may have come in contact with the employee. Twenty-seven more were found to be infected.

“Fortunately most of them are asymptomatic and are not complaining of any discomfort,” Zee News said. “We believe this is because of early diagnosis and proactive intervention.”

The news network said all guidelines and protocols have been followed, and its office, newsroom and studios have been sealed for sanitisation. The Zee News team has been shifted to an alternative facility.

“At the moment, Zee Media Corporation has 2,500 employees, by far the largest in the private sector,” the company said. “We are committed to the safety of each one of them.”

Chaudhary also claimed that “those who are infected had the option of sitting at home and sharing memes”. “They came to work because they are committed professionals.”

Following this, some social media users claimed that Zee News employees found infected with Covid-19 were still at work. In response, Chaudhary alleged that a malicious campaign was being conducted to distort his statement. He said no infected employee had come to work, and all the contacts of the employee who tested positive on May 15 had been tested and quarantined.

Over the past two months, journalists from several media organisations have tested positive for the coronavirus. On April 21, 26 employees of a Tamil news channel based in Chennai tested positive for the coronavirus. The previous day, over 50 journalists from Mumbai were found infected, after samples of over 170 journalists were tested.

On May 7, a newspaper journalist died of the coronavirus in Agra. Some states, such as Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Delhi, have tested journalists for Covid-19.

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Agencies
July 3,2020

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

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News Network
May 19,2020

New Delhi, May 19: In a fresh blow to saffronite journalist Arnab Goswami, the Supreme Court of India today rejected his plea seeking transfer of the investigation of a case, filed against him for defaming Congress interim president Sonia Gandhi, to the CBI. The court also refused to quash the FIRs filed against him.

Goswami, editor-in-chief of Republic TV, has been booked in connection with a TV show on the gathering of migrants outside Bandra railway station on April 14. This apart, multiple FIRs have been filed against him for his show on Palghar lynching. In that show, he had posed certain questions on the incident to Congress President Sonia Gandhi, following which Congress workers lodged complaints against him in various states.

Extending Goswami’s interim protection from arrest by three weeks, the Supreme Court said, “Right of a journalist under 19 1 (a) higher…Free citizens can’t exist if news media can’t speak.”

During the earlier hearing, Senior Advocate Harish Salve, appearing for Goswami, had urged the court to transfer the probe to an agency like CBI. He said the “nature of the” second FIR against Goswami over a show on the migrant gathering outside Bandra station on April 14 “shows that it’s arm-twisting tactic”. 

“They are trying to stifle an unpleasant voice. This is a political party targeting a journalist. All complainants are members of one political party. They have a problem with the government. They want to teach this journalist a lesson,” he added.

Objecting to Salve’s plea to transfer the case to the CBI, Maharashtra government counsel, Senior Advocate Kapil Sibal, had said, “CBI investigation will go into your hands”. 

Sibal denied that Goswami was being harassed and said he was only asked relevant questions. He said Goswami should “stop this communal violence and communal mongering”.

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