World Bank retains projections for India's economic growth at 7.5 per cent

Agencies
June 5, 2019

New Delhi, Jun 5: The World Bank retained its forecast of India's growth rate at 7.5 per cent for the current financial year. In its Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank also said growth rate is expected to remain the same for the next two fiscals.

"In India, growth is projected at 7.5 per cent in FY2019/20 (April 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020), unchanged from the previous forecast, and to stay at this pace through the next two fiscal years," the World Bank said in its report.

According to the report, private consumption and investment will benefit from strengthening credit growth amid more accommodative monetary policy, with inflation having fallen below the Reserve Bank of India's target. Support from delays in planned fiscal consolidation at the central level should partially offset the effects of political uncertainty around elections, it added.

The outlook for South Asia over the forecast horizon is expected to remain solid, with regional GDP expected to expand to 6.9 per cent in 2019, 0.2 percentage point down from previous projections owing to downward revisions for Pakistan, but to pick up to 7 per cent in 2020 and 7.1 per cent in 2021.

The contribution of exports to economic activity is expected to remain weak with moderate global trade growth, the report mentioned.

The World Bank, in its report, observed that the main domestic risks to the outlook include a re-escalation of political turbulence amid elections in some countries (Afghanistan and Sri Lanka); fiscal slippages with expanding public spending; and a resurgence of non-bank financial sector funding issues.

The Washington-based lender noted that "military skirmishes" between major South Asian countries in mid-February remained contained, and economic repercussions were minor. However, re-escalation of tensions between the two countries could increase uncertainty, depress confidence, and weigh on investment in the region - an apparent reference to the Pulwama terror attack and the retaliatory air strikes carried out by the Indian Air Force (IAF) in Pakistan's Balakot.

It further said the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime is still in the process of being fully established, creating some uncertainty about projections of government revenues.

In Sri Lanka, the World Bank said a rise in political uncertainty in the months leading up to presidential and parliamentary elections, which will take place in 2019 and 2020, respectively, could weigh on business confidence. In addition, recent security-related incidents could dampen investor sentiment and perceptions.

Another factor accounted for by the World Bank is uncertainty about the Brexit process, which possesses the ability to create a risk to some South Asian economies which have preferential trade agreements or generalised system of preferences with the European Union and significant exports to the UK, including India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. A no-deal Brexit could have a significant impact on exports of those countries to the UK in the absence of new trade agreements, it contended.

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News Network
March 4,2020

Mumbai, Mar 4: BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis on Tuesday said Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray should not give "vague" replies on the 5 per cent Muslim quota issue and declare "with courage" that his government will not bring law granting reservation to the minority community.

Mr Fadnavis made the remark after Mr Thackeray, during a press conference earlier in the day, said he has not yet received the proposal regarding giving quota to Muslims and that the Shiv Sena-led government is yet to take any decision on it.

Mr Thackeray made the comments after Maharashtra Minority Affairs Minister Nawab Malik recently said in the legislative council that thestate government will provide 5 per cent quota to Muslims in education.

Mr Malik, an NCP leader, had also said the state government will ensure that a legislation to this effect is passed soon.

The NCP and the Congress, both proponents of Muslim quota, are constituents of the Sena-led Maha Vikas Aghadi government.

Asked about Mr Thackeray's remarks on the issue, Mr Fadnavis said instead of making comments at the press conference, the chief minister should make a statement in the legislature which is currently having its budget session.

The Leader of the Opposition in the assembly said that Mr Malik's opinion is the official position of the government as the minister had talked about giving quota in the council.

"So, instead of making vague comments in the press conference, the chief minister should say in the council that it is not his view (the one expressed by chief minister).

"The chief minister gave vague answers during the press conference, saying the proposal has not come to him. Your minister (Malik) only has said it," Mr Fadnavis told reporters outside the legislature building complex.

The BJP leader maintained there is no provision in the Constitution for religion-based reservation in government jobs or education.

"Say with courage that you will not give the quota, that the Constitution doesn't accept quota based on religion. Hence, we (the government) will not bring law granting quota," the former Chief Minister said.

Mr Fadnavis claimed that if given within the 50 per cent ceiling set by the Supreme Court, the Muslim quota will affect the existing reservation granted to OBCs.

"And if given outside it, it will affect Maratha quota," he added.

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News Network
May 30,2020

New Delhi, May 30: As the NDA government completes one year of its second term, Prime Minister Narendra Modi listed several achievements and initiatives taken by his government in the past year in an audio message addressed to the people of the country.

PM Modi said, "This day last year began a golden chapter in the history of Indian democracy. It was after several decades that the people of the country voted back a full-term government with a full majority."

"Your role has played a pivotal role in creating this chapter. In such a situation, this day is an opportunity for me to bow to the citizens of the country and the democratic ethos of our nation," said PM Modi.

"Had the situation been normal, I would have got the chance to meet you. Your affection and active support in the past year have given me new energy and inspiration. During this period, the way you have shown the collective powers of democracy, they have become an example for the whole world," he added.

PM Modi talked about several important initiatives taken by his government in 2014 as well as India's demonstration of its mettle through the surgical strike and airstrike.

"Six years ago in 2014, the people of this country voted to bring a major change in the country. You voted to change the country's policy and manner. During that tenure where surgical strike and airstrike took place, one rank one pension, one nation one tax GST, and better MSP for farmers were also fulfilled. That period was dedicated to fulfilling many needs of the country."

He further said that in these years the country has seen systems coming out of the quagmire of inertia and corruption. The country has seen governance change to make life easier for the poor.

"During that period, India's stature in the world increased. By opening bank accounts of poor people, by giving them gas connections, by providing free electricity connections, by building washrooms, by building houses, the dignity of the poor has also been increased," said PM Modi.

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Agencies
May 26,2020

The Shopping Centres Association of India (SCAI) on Monday said the sector has lost over Rs 90,000 crore in the last two months, owing to the lockdown, and market players need much more than the repo rate cut and the loan moratorium extended by the RBI.

In a statement, the industry body said that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) relief measures are not adequate to support the liquidity needs of the industry.

According to the SCAI, there is a common misconception that the shopping centres' industry is centred around metros and large cities with investments only from large developers, private equity players and foreign investors.

"However, the fact is that most malls are part of the SMEs or standalone developers. i.e. more than 550 are single owned by standalone developers out of the 650-odd organised shopping centres across the country and there are 1,000+ small centres in smaller cities," it said.

Amitabh Taneja, Chairman of SCAI said: "The organised retail industry is in distress and has not earned anything since the lockdown and their survival is at stake. While the extension of the loan moratorium talks about some relief on repayment but won't help the industry in liquidity."

He said that a long term beneficial plan from the government is much required to revive the sector.

"Being the most safe, accountable, and controlled environment, unfortunately, malls have not been permitted to open which will lead to job losses and might even shut shops for a lot of mall developers," Taneja said.

In its representations to the Centre and the Reserve Bank of India, the association has also pointed out that, in absence of financial package and stimulus from the RBI, over 500 shopping centres may go bankrupt, that may lead to the banking industry staring at NPAs of Rs 25,000 crore.

The industry body has put forward its recommendations and requests to the government. It had sought moratorium till March 2021 at the least in terms of repayment of bank loans, interest, EMI and so on, without levy of any penalties or penal interest.

It has also sought a one-time loan restructuring with lower rates of interest, permitted for shopping centres and a facilitative and forward-looking support provision of short-term financing options for a period of six to 12 months, at lower interest rates, to meet the increased working capital requirements.

Among other relaxations, it had also appealed for GST rebates to offset the losses on account of and for the period of closure of business.

It also said that interest rates should be brought down to "manageable levels" of 5-6% in view of the precarious financial situation.

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