World economy needs Trump to build bridges, not burn them: experts

November 23, 2016

Paris, Nov 23: President-elect Donald Trump's big-spending plan to revitalize US infrastructure could be just the ticket to drag the world economy out of its post-crisis torpor, experts say.

trade

But there is a huge caveat, they warn: the plan's benefits would be eroded if Trump executes his avowed aim of putting “America first” and tearing up commercial pacts, potentially igniting a trade war.

The Republican property tycoon's team says he will devote $550 billion to rebuilding decrepit highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools and hospitals — something that President Barack Obama failed to persuade Republicans in Congress to back.

The idea has support from the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve and Democrats, all keen to see the United States raise its productive capacity, despite the likelihood it will also ramp up its debt.

“All public money invested in US infrastructure — which badly needs it — can only be welcome,” said Ludovic Subran, chief economist at the trade insurance company Euler Hermes.

The United States suffers from congested highways, collapsing bridges and a ramshackle rail network. Bemoaning the state of US airports during the election campaign, Trump said “we've become a Third World country.”

Economies further afield would benefit at a time when Europe and Japan are struggling with the debilitating effects of deflation or anaemic growth.

“Inflation would spread everywhere in the world,” in a welcome filip to the central banks of Europe and Japan, according to Laurent Geronimi, a senior asset manager at the private bank Swiss Life.

Indeed, the bond markets have already signalled as much with trillions of dollars wiped off valuations since Trump's election — a sign that investors expect a debt-fueled spending splurge to drive up interest rates.

That would benefit millions of savers and investors in pension funds who have struggled since the 2008 financial crisis ushered in a period of rock-bottom rates across the West.

Emerging markets could also win out if the dollar continues its recent bull run sparked by expectations of higher inflation and borrowing costs.

“If the American currency appreciates, that's a good thing for us because we are exporters of oil and of raw materials that are priced in dollars. And when the dollar appreciates, we earn a bit more,” said Lucas Abaga Nchama, governor of the Bank of Central African States.

'Double-edged sword'

But inflation, of course, is a double-edged sword. Workers worldwide risk losing out in their pay packets — including those Americans who rallied to Trump's banner. US homeowners would also suffer from dearer mortgage costs.

And then there is the potential impact on global growth if Trump delivers on his pledges to rewrite the rules of trade in favor of blue-collar Americans.

Already on Monday, Trump said his new administration would immediately signal its withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a vast undertaking in free trade painstakingly negotiated by Obama's team that has yet to take force.

The incoming president is also threatening to upend the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, and a separate pact under discussion between the United States and Europe appears to be on life support.

At the same time, Trump accuses China of being a rogue trader guilty of stiffing the average American, and economists dread the potential for 1930s-style protectionism that could arise.

“If we do go into much more of an isolationist position, with protectionist policies, it seems only fair to expect a response from our trading partners,” said Standard & Poor's chief US economist Beth Ann Bovino.

“The worry of course is we could go into a tit-for-tat where everybody loses.”

Olivier Blanchard, a former IMF chief economist who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, stressed that Trump will have to tread a fine line between pro-growth spending on infrastructure and depressive measures on trade.

Where the line falls will decide the difference between “expansion or recession,” he warned.

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News Network
April 18,2020

Washington, Apr 18: The United States on Friday passed 700,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, according to a tally maintained by Johns Hopkins University.

With the highest number of cases and deaths of any country in the world, the US had recorded 700,282 cases of COVID-19 and 36,773 deaths as of 8:30 pm (0030 GMT Friday), according to the Baltimore-based university.

That marked an increase of 3,856 deaths in the past 24 hours, but that figure likely includes "probable" virus-linked deaths, which had not previously been counted.

This week, New York City said it would add 3,778 "probable" virus deaths to its official count.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gave a toll Friday night of 33,049 dead, including 4,226 probable virus-linked deaths.

The United States has seen the highest death toll in the world in the coronavirus pandemic, ahead of Italy (22,745 deaths) although its population is just a fifth of that of the US.

Spain has recorded 19,478 deaths, followed by France with 18,681.

Trump announces $19 billion relief for farmers amid COVID-19 epidemic

President Donald Trump on Friday announced a $19 billion financial rescue package to help the agriculture industry weather the staggering economic downturn sparked by measures to defeat the coronavirus.

Trump told a press conference the government "will be implementing a $19 billion relief program for our great farmers and ranchers as they cope with the fallout of the global pandemic."

The program will include direct payments to farmers, ranchers and producers who Trump said have experienced "unprecedented losses during this pandemic."

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said US farmers have been hit hard by a sharp shift in demand, as schools and restaurants close and more Americans eat at home.

That has disrupted the food supply chain, forcing farmers in many places to destroy dairy output and plow under crops that no longer have buyers.

"Having to dump milk and plow under vegetables ready to market is not only financially distressing, but it's heartbreaking as well to those who produce them," Perdue said.

Perdue said some $3 billion of the money would go to buying produce and milk from such farmers, and redistribute it to community food banks.

Millions of Americans have recently turned to food pantries for meals and groceries after losing their jobs.

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Agencies
January 10,2020

New York, Jan 10: The US's National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) announced that it has accepted an invitation from Tehran to participate in its investigation into the crash of a Ukrainian plane amid speculations that an Iranian missile might have brought down the plane.

The federal agency said in a statement on Thursday that the Iran Civil Aviation Organization has notified them that they could take part in the investigation of the plane crash that occurred shortly after taking off from Tehran on Wednesday, killing all 176 people on board, reports the Efe news.

"The NTSB has designated an accredited representative to the investigation of the crash," said the independent US government agency tasked with investigating transport accidents.

Since the aircraft was a US-made Boeing 737-800, international regulations allow Washington to be a part of the accident investigation.

However, it remains unclear to what extent the NTSB representative will be able to play an active role in the probe, as US sanctions complicate cooperation with Iran, and the two countries have no diplomatic relations.

The NTSB announcement came hours after US intelligence sources told several media outlets that the Kiev-bound Ukrainian International Airlines (UIA) flight 752 could have been accidentally shot down by an Iranian missile.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau later confirmed that his government had "evidence" indicating that the aircraft "was shot down by an Iranian surface to air missile", although he added it may have been unintentional.

The accident occurred on the same day after Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two US military bases in Iraq, in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani in an American drone attack in Baghdad on January 3.

However, the Iranian authorities have denied that they had accidentally shot down the plane and claimed the accusations were a part of a psychological warfare campaign against Tehran.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said they welcomed the presence of experts from countries whose citizens have died in the tragic accident, and requested Trudeau and any other government to provide any information they had regarding the crash.

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News Network
May 15,2020

May 15: Global tensions simmered over the race for a coronavirus vaccine Thursday, as the United States and China traded jabs, and France slammed pharmaceuticals giant Sanofi for suggesting the US would get any eventual vaccine first.

Scientists are working at breakneck speed to develop a vaccine for COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, which has killed more than 300,000 people worldwide and pummelled economies.

From the US to Europe to Asia, national and local governments are easing lockdown orders to get people back to work -- while fretting over a possible second wave of infections.

Increased freedom of movement means an increased risk of contracting the virus, and so national labs and private firms are labouring to find the right formula for a vaccine.

The European Union's medicines agency offered some hope when it said one could be ready in a year, based on data from clinical trials already underway.

But Marco Cavaleri, the EMA's head of vaccines strategy, acknowledged that timeline was a "best-case scenario," and cautioned that "there may be delays."

The race for a vaccine has exposed a raw nerve in relations between the United States and China, where the virus was first detected late last year in the central city of Wuhan.

Two US agencies warned Wednesday that Chinese hackers were trying to steal COVID-19 vaccine research -- a claim Beijing rejected as "smearing" its reputation.

US President Donald Trump, who has ratcheted up the rhetoric against China, said he doesn't even want to engage with Chinese leader Xi Jinping -- potentially imperilling a trade deal between the world's top two economies.

"I'm very disappointed in China. I will tell you that right now," he said in an interview with Fox Business.

"There are many things we could do. We could do things. We could cut off the whole relationship."

On Capitol Hill, an ousted US health official told Congress that the Trump government had no strategy in place to find and distribute a vaccine to millions of Americans, warning of the "darkest winter" ahead.

"We don't have a single point of leadership right now for this response, and we don't have a master plan," said Rick Bright, who was removed last month as head of the US agency charged with developing a coronavirus vaccine.

The United States has registered nearly 86,000 deaths linked to COVID-19 -- the highest toll of any nation.

World leaders were among 140 signatories to a letter published Thursday saying any vaccine should not be patented and that the science should be shared among nations.

"Governments and international partners must unite around a global guarantee which ensures that, when a safe and effective vaccine is developed, it is produced rapidly at scale and made available for all people, in all countries, free of charge," it said.

But a row erupted in France after drugmaker Sanofi said it would reserve first shipments of any vaccine it discovered to the United States.

The comments prompted a swift rebuke from the French government -- President Emmanuel Macron's office said any vaccine should be treated as "a global public good, which is not submitted to market forces."

Sanofi chief executive Paul Hudson said the US had a risk-sharing model that allowed for manufacturing to start before a vaccine had been finally approved -- while Europe did not.

"The US government has the right to the largest pre-order because it's invested in taking the risk," Hudson told Bloomberg News.

Macron's top officials are scheduled to meet with Sanofi executives about the issue next week.

The search for a vaccine became even more urgent after the World Health Organization said the disease may never go away and the world would have to learn to live with it for good.

"This virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities and this virus may never go away," said Michael Ryan, the UN body's emergencies director.

The prospect of the disease lingering leaves governments facing a delicate balancing act between suppressing the pathogen and getting their economies up and running.

In the US, more grim economic data emerged Thursday, with nearly three million more Americans applying for unemployment benefits.

That takes the overall total to 36.5 million -- more than 10 percent of the US population.

Further signs of the damage to businesses emerged when Lloyd's of London forecast the pandemic will cost the global insurance industry about $203 billion.

European markets closed down, but Wall Street rallied despite the new jobless claims. In a sign of progress, the New York Stock Exchange trading floor was due to reopen on May 26.

The reopening of economies continued in earnest across Europe, where the EU has set out proposals for a phased restart of travel and the eventual lifting of border controls.

"Maybe it's a mistake, but we have no choice. Without tourists, we won't get by!" Enrico Facchetti, a 61-year-old former goldsmith, said of Venice's reopening.

Japan -- the world's third largest economy -- lifted a state of emergency across most of the country except for Tokyo and Osaka.

And Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said national parks would partially reopen on June 1.

But in Latin America, the virus continued to surge, with a 60 percent leap in cases in the Chilean capital of Santiago.

Authorities said 2,000 new graves were being dug at the main cemetery.

South Sudan reported its first COVID-19 death on Thursday.

And in Bangladesh, the first case was confirmed in the teeming Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh, which are home to nearly one million people.

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