World economy needs Trump to build bridges, not burn them: experts

November 23, 2016

Paris, Nov 23: President-elect Donald Trump's big-spending plan to revitalize US infrastructure could be just the ticket to drag the world economy out of its post-crisis torpor, experts say.

trade

But there is a huge caveat, they warn: the plan's benefits would be eroded if Trump executes his avowed aim of putting “America first” and tearing up commercial pacts, potentially igniting a trade war.

The Republican property tycoon's team says he will devote $550 billion to rebuilding decrepit highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools and hospitals — something that President Barack Obama failed to persuade Republicans in Congress to back.

The idea has support from the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve and Democrats, all keen to see the United States raise its productive capacity, despite the likelihood it will also ramp up its debt.

“All public money invested in US infrastructure — which badly needs it — can only be welcome,” said Ludovic Subran, chief economist at the trade insurance company Euler Hermes.

The United States suffers from congested highways, collapsing bridges and a ramshackle rail network. Bemoaning the state of US airports during the election campaign, Trump said “we've become a Third World country.”

Economies further afield would benefit at a time when Europe and Japan are struggling with the debilitating effects of deflation or anaemic growth.

“Inflation would spread everywhere in the world,” in a welcome filip to the central banks of Europe and Japan, according to Laurent Geronimi, a senior asset manager at the private bank Swiss Life.

Indeed, the bond markets have already signalled as much with trillions of dollars wiped off valuations since Trump's election — a sign that investors expect a debt-fueled spending splurge to drive up interest rates.

That would benefit millions of savers and investors in pension funds who have struggled since the 2008 financial crisis ushered in a period of rock-bottom rates across the West.

Emerging markets could also win out if the dollar continues its recent bull run sparked by expectations of higher inflation and borrowing costs.

“If the American currency appreciates, that's a good thing for us because we are exporters of oil and of raw materials that are priced in dollars. And when the dollar appreciates, we earn a bit more,” said Lucas Abaga Nchama, governor of the Bank of Central African States.

'Double-edged sword'

But inflation, of course, is a double-edged sword. Workers worldwide risk losing out in their pay packets — including those Americans who rallied to Trump's banner. US homeowners would also suffer from dearer mortgage costs.

And then there is the potential impact on global growth if Trump delivers on his pledges to rewrite the rules of trade in favor of blue-collar Americans.

Already on Monday, Trump said his new administration would immediately signal its withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a vast undertaking in free trade painstakingly negotiated by Obama's team that has yet to take force.

The incoming president is also threatening to upend the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, and a separate pact under discussion between the United States and Europe appears to be on life support.

At the same time, Trump accuses China of being a rogue trader guilty of stiffing the average American, and economists dread the potential for 1930s-style protectionism that could arise.

“If we do go into much more of an isolationist position, with protectionist policies, it seems only fair to expect a response from our trading partners,” said Standard & Poor's chief US economist Beth Ann Bovino.

“The worry of course is we could go into a tit-for-tat where everybody loses.”

Olivier Blanchard, a former IMF chief economist who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, stressed that Trump will have to tread a fine line between pro-growth spending on infrastructure and depressive measures on trade.

Where the line falls will decide the difference between “expansion or recession,” he warned.

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News Network
April 12,2020

Washington, Apr 12: The US has overtaken Italy as the country with the highest number of deaths due to COVID-19 pandemic with the fatalities crossing 20,000, according to Johns Hopkins University data, as the novel coronavirus continues to wreak havoc across the globe.

The deadly coronavirus, that originated in China in December last year, has so far killed more than one lakh people across the globe. The United States on Saturday became the country with the highest number of deaths at 20,597, surpassing Italy's 19,468 fatalities.

More than 5.3 lakh Americans have tested positive for coronavirus, which is about the same for the next four countries put together: Spain (163,027), Italy (152,271), Germany (125,452) and France (93,790). In terms of fatalities, the US and Italy are followed by Spain (16,606), France (13832) and United Kingdom (9,875), the varsity data showed.

New York City, the financial capital of the world, has emerged as the epicenter of coronavirus in the world. A city of 8.3 million, which is one of the most densely populated cities in the US, by Saturday night had as many as 8,627 deaths and more than 180,000 people had tested positive for COVID-19.

President Donald Trump has declared a national emergency and all the 50 States have been notified with major disaster declaration. More than 95 per cent of the country's 330 million population are under stay-at-home order. Trump has deployed more than 50,000 personnel from the armed forces in fight against COVID-19.

After an initial two-week social mitigation measures, that includes social distancing, the measures have been extended till April 30. Initially, members of the White House Task Force on Coronavirus had projected between one and two lakhs deaths. Now, they have dropped the projection to 60,000 deaths, mainly due to the successful implementation of these measures.

"The people of our country have gone through a lot. But we did it the right way. And we look like we'll be coming in on the very, very low side, really below the lowest, the lowest side of the curve of death," Trump told Fox News on Saturday night.

Trump asserted that situation was improving in places like New York, where there is a drop in new patients. Responding to a question, he said he wanted the country to open up as soon as possible.

However, he has not taken a decision so far, even as some media reports said that he the President was looking for early May.

"I think it's going to be the toughest decision that I've ever made. I really, hopefully that I ever will have to make. But it's certainly the toughest decision that I've ever made. I hope that I'm going to make the right decision," Trump said, adding that he will be making a decision reasonably soon.

"We're setting up a council now of some of the most distinguished leaders in virtually every field including politics and business and medical. We'll be making that decision fairly soon," Trump said.

Meanwhile, The New York Times reported that its investigations have revealed that the president was warned about a potential pandemic but that internal divisions, lack of planning and his faith in his own instincts led to a halting response.

According to The Washington Post, coronavirus is killing about one in 10 hospitalised middle-aged patients and four in 10 older than 85 in the United States. It is particularly lethal to men even when taking into account common chronic diseases that exacerbate risk.

Globally, the novel coronavirus has killed 108,862 people and infected over 1.7 million people globally. The US has the highest number of infections at 529,887, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

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News Network
June 27,2020

LGeneva, Jun 27:: The number of confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide has risen by over 177,000 in the past 24 hours to 9.4 million and the death toll has topped 480,000, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Friday (local time).

On Thursday, the WHO reported 167,056 new cases and 5,336 related deaths.

The fresh daily situation report estimates the number of infections confirmed in the past 24 hours at 177,012. Further, 5,116 virus-related deaths were reported over the same period, taking the toll to 484,249.

The Americas lead the count with over 4.7 million cases, followed by Europe with more than 2.6 million.

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News Network
June 4,2020

New York, Jun 4: The Minneapolis police officer who used his knee to pin down George Floyd's neck before his death was the most experienced of the four officers involved in the arrest, with a record that included medals for bravery and 17 complaints against him, including one for pulling a woman out of her car during a speeding stop.

New details about Derek Chauvin and the other now-fired officers emerged Wednesday after prosecutors upgraded Chauvin's charge to second-degree murder and charged the others with aiding and abetting in a case that has convulsed the nation with protests over race and police brutality.

Heavily redacted personnel files show that Chauvin, a 19-year veteran of the force, was initially trained as a cook and served in the Army as a military police officer.

Eleven-year veteran and native Hmong speaker Tou Thao began as a community service officer and was the subject of six complaints.

The other two officers were relative newcomers to the department, including Thomas Lane, a former juvenile detention guard who did volunteer work with Somali refugees, and J. Alexander Kueng, who got his start in law enforcement by patrolling his college campus and a department store.

The files were notable for what they didn't include. Only one of the 17 complaints against Chauvin was detailed, none of the six against Thao were mentioned and there was no further detail about a 2017 excessive force lawsuit against Thao.

Records show that the 44-year-old Chauvin initially studied cooking before taking courses in law enforcement and doing two stints in the Army as a military police officer in the late 1990s, serving at Fort Benning, Georgia, and in Germany.

Chauvin became a Minneapolis police officer in 2001 and the lone reprimand in his file involved a 2007 incident when he was accused of pulling a woman out of her car after stopping her for going 10 mph (16 kph) over the speed limit.

Investigators found it was not necessary for Chauvin to remove the woman from the car and noted that his squad car video was turned off during the stop.

But Chauvin was also singled out for bravery. Files show he won two medals of valor, one in 2006 for being part of a group of officers who opened fire on a stabbing suspect who pointed a shotgun at them, and another in 2008 for a domestic violence incident in which Chauvin broke down a bathroom door and shot a suspect in the stomach.

He also won medals of commendation in 2008 after he and his partner tackled a fleeing suspect who had a pistol in his hand, and in 2009 for single-handedly apprehending a group of gang members while working as an off-duty security guard at the El Nuevo Rodeo, a Minneapolis nightclub.

Since his arrest, the former owner of the club, Maya Santamaria, said Chauvin and Floyd both worked as security guards there at various times but that she wasn't sure if they had known one another.

She said Chauvin was unnecessarily aggressive on nights when the club had a black clientele, quelling fights by dousing the crowd with pepper spray and calling in several police squad cars as backup, a tactic she called “overkill.”

Chauvin's wife, Kellie, a Laotian immigrant who became the first Hmong winner of the Mrs. Minnesota pageant, said shortly after his arrest last week that she intends to divorce him.

Before news of the upgraded charges, an attorney for Chauvin said he was not making any statements at this time. Lawyers for the others did not return messages seeking comment.

In cellphone video of the May 25 arrest of Floyd, Chauvin is shown pressing his knee onto Floyd's neck for more than eight minutes while Floyd cries out “I can't breathe” and eventually stops moving.

During much of the arrest, Kueng and Lane were helping Chauvin restrain Floyd. Thao was standing nearby keeping onlookers back.

According the complaint, at one point during the arrest, as Chauvin held Floyd down with his knee, Lane asked Chauvin twice whether they should roll Floyd over.

“No, staying put where we got him,” Chauvin replied, “I am worried about excited delirium or whatever,” Lane said. And Chauvin replied again, “That's why we have him on his stomach.” None of the three officers moved from their positions.

Lane joined the police early last year as a 35-year-old cadet — much older than most rookies — and became a full-fledged officer last December. He had no complaints in his file during his short time on the force.

On employment forms, the University of Minnesota graduate said he done volunteer work tutoring Somali youth and as a mentor helping at-risk elementary school students with reading and homework.”

Kueng, at 26 the youngest of the four officers, was also a recent recruit to the police force. He completed his year's probation just three months before the Floyd arrest.

His personnel file, which notes that he speaks, reads and writes Russian, did not include any commendations or disciplinary actions during his short time on force.

Kueng was a 2018 graduate of the University of Minnesota, where he worked part-time as part of the campus security force. He also worked nearly three years as a theft-prevention officer at Macy's.

Thao joined the police force part-time in 2008 while attending a community college. Before that, he worked as a security guard, a supermarket stocker and trainer at McDonald's.

City records show six complaints were filed against Thao, but there was no mention of that in the records released Wednesday. There also was no mention of a 2017 federal lawsuit accusing him and another officer of excessive force.

According to the lawsuit, Lamar Ferguson claimed that in 2014, Thao and his partner stopped him and beat him up while he was on his way to his girlfriend's house. The lawsuit was settled for $25,000 ___

Richmond reported from Madison, Wisconsin. Associated Press writer Scott Bauer in Madison and researcher Rhonda Shafner in New York contributed to this report.

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