Yogi Adityanath sacks BJP ally from cabinet for supporting mahagathbandhan in UP

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

Kozhikode, Apr 24: A four-month-old baby girl, who had tested positive for COVID-19 and suffering from congenital heart disease, died in a hospital here in Kerala early Friday after suffering a cardiac arrest, officials said.

This is the third COVID-19 death and the first infant fatality in the state where two elderly people had succumbed to the disease earlier.

The baby was admitted to the Medical College Hospital here on April 21 with history of fever, cough, breathing difficulties and seizure after being treated at two other hospitals and the end came at 6 am, a medical bulletin said.

State Health Minister K K Shailaja said doctors had made maximum efforts to save the life of the child, whose family belonged to Payyanad near Manjeri in Malappuram district.

"Preliminary information which we have is that there has been some primary contact", she told reporters in Thiruvananthapuram.

The protocol for COVID-19 cases would be followed for the baby's last rites, the Minister added.

As of Thursday, the total active COVID-19 cases in the state stood at 129.

The bulletin said on arrival at the hospital on Tuesday the baby was in shock and had respiratory failure.

"She was resuscitated, mechanically ventilated and appropriate antibiotics for pneumonia and supportive measures to correct shock were started", it said adding the baby, however, continued to remain sick.

"Even though there was no history of any high or low risk contact or any epidemiological links as the child comes from SARI (Sever Acute Respiratory infection) criteria, she was admitted to the COVID-ICU and swab was taken and she tested positive", the bulletin said.

Contact tracing of those who had come in contact with the child was in progress.

Mallapuram District Medical Officer (Health) Dr Sakeena K said the child was having severe health issues from its birth itself and was admitted to a private hospital in Manjeri near here with breathing problem.

As her condition worsened, the baby was shifted to another hospital and later to the medical college hospital.

"The baby was having chest deformity and Atrial Septal Defect by birth which developed into severe health issues, the official added.

Thiruvananthapuram, Mar 30: The Kerala chapter of the Indian Medical Association (IMA) has said that the state government's decision to sell alcohol to those with a prescription from doctors for having withdrawal symptoms is not a scientific one.

"Scientific treatment should be given to those who have alcohol withdrawal symptoms. It can be treated at home or in hospitals with medicines. It is not scientifically acceptable to offer alcohol to such people instead," a statement by IMA said.
The IMA said that they have taken the matter up with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

The association said that the doctors have no legal obligation to provide a prescription for alcohol.

"Writing a liquor prescription can result in the cancellation of the right to treatment. We have brought it to the notice of Chief Minister," it added.

IMA state president Dr Abraham Varghese and state secretary Dr Gopi Kumar said that scientific treatments are good for those with withdrawal symptoms and added that if other methods are adopted it will only complicate matters.

Kerala government had earlier said that it was considering the option of online sale of liquor in the state to those with a prescription from doctors.

The decision had come in the backdrop of a country-wide lockdown to prevent the spread of coronavirus.