UP: Yogi govt changes name of Allahabad city to Prayagraj

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Washington, Jul 18: The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from the US to India has crossed the $40 billion mark so far this year, reflecting the growing confidence of American companies in the country, the head of an India-centric business advocacy group has said.

The American companies, during the Covid-19 pandemic, which has battered the world economy, have shown great confidence in India and its leadership, said Mukesh Aghi, president of the US-India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF), which keeps a track of the major US FDIs in India.

“Year to date investment from the US, including the recent ones, is over $40 billion,” Aghi said.

In recent weeks alone, the announcement of the FDI into India has been over $20 billion, he said, referring to the announcements made by some of the top companies like Google, Facebook and Walmart.

“Investors’ confidence in India is high. India still remains a very promising market for global investors. If you look at the $20 billion… not just the US, but (investment) has also come from other geographies such as the Middle East and the Far East.

“So, India still remains a very, very bullish market for the investor community,” Aghi said in response to a question.

The USISPF has been working with New Delhi to bring in FDI into India… playing a key role in encouraging American companies planning to move their bases out of China, he said, adding that the move was going on in the last three years of the Trump administration, but gained momentum during the coronavirus pandemic.

“We feel that Prime Minister (Narendra Modi’s) intention is very high. The challenges lie on the execution side. Efforts are being made to encourage manufacturing… I've never seen it so better. The policy framework is moving in the right direction,” he said.

Early this week, Larry Kudlow, the White House Economic Advisor, told reporters that the US tech giants like Google and Facebook announcing big investments in India shows that people are losing trust in China and India is emerging as a big competitor.

At the same time, he rued that India continues to be a protectionist country.

“The question is how do you define protectionism... the administration here is saying America first and India is saying vocal for local…,” Aghi added.