10 PL from March 19 10 23 at Sharjah

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

New Delhi, Jan 22: The pitches in New Zealand have become a lot more batting-friendly over the years, says iconic former batsman Sachin Tendulkar, insisting that India have the “ammunition” to trouble the sprightly hosts during the upcoming series.

Tendulkar, who has been on a record five New Zealand tours since 1990, feels that from seaming tracks during his early trips years, the tracks became high-scoring hard ones during his last tour back in 2009.

“Of late, the Tests in New Zealand have been high scoring and surfaces have changed,” Tendulkar told PTI during an exclusive interview.

India will play five T20 Internationals, three ODIs and two Tests during the tour starting with the shortest format on January 24.

From 2002, when India played ODIs and Tests on green tops, to 2009, when India won only their second Test series in 32 years, Tendulkar has seen it all in New Zealand.

“I remember when we played in 2009, the Hamilton pitch was different compared to other pitches. Other pitches got harder (Wellington and Napier) but not Hamilton. It remained soft.

“But Napier became hard with passage of time (where Gautam Gambhir scored an epic match-saving 12-hour hundred in 2009). So, from my first tour (in 1990 till 2009), I realised pitches got harder with passage of time,” Tendulkar said.

Tendulkar is confident that the Indian bowling attack, spearheaded by Jasprit Bumrah, has the ammunition to put New Zealand in trouble.

“We have a good bowling attack with quality fast bowlers as well as spinners. I believe we have the ammunition to compete in New Zealand.”

However, in Wellington, Tendulkar wants the team to be well-prepared to counter the breeze factor.

“Wellington, I have played and it makes a huge difference if you are bowling with the wind or against the wind. The batsman needs to be judicious in the choice of which end he wants to attack, it is very important,” he said.

Tendulkar said he would prefer spinners to bowl against the breeze.

“...the seamers bowling against the strong breeze need to be smart. So I would prefer that if there is strong breeze, let the spinner bowl from that end and from the opposite end, the fast bowler bowls with the breeze behind him,” he said.

The maestro is confident that Rohit Sharma's white ball experience will hold him in good stead in the Tests as well, an assignment that has been kept for the last leg of the trip, which begins with five T20 Internationals from January 24.

“The challenge would be to go out and open in different conditions. I think Rohit had opened in New Zealand in ODIs and has been there quite a few times, he knows the conditions well. Eventually, Test cricket is Test cricket,” he said.

“But all depends on surfaces that they provide. If they provide green tops, then it's a challenge.”

There is no Bhuvneshwar Kumar or Deepak Chahar in limited-overs series but Tendulkar is not ready to press the panic button.

“Injuries are part and parcel of the game when you play and push your body to the limits.

“When you play for your country you need to give your best and while you give your best, you can get injured. That's okay,” he concluded.

Melbourne, May 2: After becoming the number one side in Test cricket, Australia's head coach Justin Langer has said that his team has won back the respect of the country.

Australia dethroned India from the top spot in Tests and now the Men in Blue are in the third place.

Langer came in as the coach of Australia after the 2018 ball-tampering scandal and it took him some time to get the side back to winning ways.

Ever since the return of David Warner and Steve Smith, Australia went on to become a commendable side and the results reflect that.

"We have got lots of work to do to become the team we want to be. But over the last couple of years, not only have we performed well on the field, we have performed well off it. We have earned some respect back from other teams around the world but also from Australia," Langer said in an official statement.

"When we started on this journey, there had been a lot of talk about Australia wanting to be No. 1 in the world in all three forms of the game.

We took a different approach. Not once did we talk about being No. 1 ranked in the world. We wanted to be No.1 in our values and process. That is what I am most proud of," he added.

In the latest ICC rankings update, that rates all matches played since May 2019 at 100 per cent and those of the previous two years at 50 per cent, Australia (116) have taken over from India as the top-ranked side in the ICC men's Test team rankings with New Zealand (115) remaining in second place.

India is now third with 114 points. With only two points separating them, this is the second closest the top three teams have been since the Test rankings were launched in 2003.

The closest for the top three teams were in January 2016, when India had led Australia and South Africa by a single point.

Australia has also moved to the top spot in the T20I rankings for the first time in the format.