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Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

Hong Kong, Jan 3: Oil prices soared more than four per cent Friday following claims that the US had killed a top Iranian general, ratcheting up tensions between the foes and fuelling fears of a conflict in the crude-rich region.

The head of Iran's Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani, was hit in an attack on Baghdad international airport early Friday, according to Hased, a powerful Iraqi paramilitary force linked to Tehran.

Brent surged 4.4 per cent to USD 69.16 and WTI jumped 4.3 per cent to 63.84.

“Oil prices still have room for further upside as many analysts are still having to upgrade their demand forecasts to include a rather calm period on the trade front,” Moya said, referring to the warming trade relation between China and the United States.

“President Trump is likely to take a break on being ‘tariff man’ until we get beyond the presidential election in November.”

Dubai, May 19: In a heart-warming decision to reunite families that have been split by anti-Covid travel restrictions, the UAE has announced that residents with valid visas stranded outside the country can return from June 1.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and the Federal Authority for Identity and Citizenship said they will begin the process on Monday, June 1, by allowing the return of those residency holders currently stranded outside the country who have relatives in the UAE. Residents who meet this criteria must apply for a Resident Entry Permit on smartservices.ica.gov.ae.

The ministry and the authority said the decision was taken to reunite families that have been affected by the anti-coronavirus measures taken due to the exceptional circumstances.

"The UAE is keen to facilitate the procedures for holders of UAE residency visas who are stuck outside the country and reunite them with their families who were affected by the precautionary measures taken by the country in light of the current exceptional circumstances to combat Covid-19," the federal authorities were quoted by state news agency Wam.

Hundreds of UAE residents are currently stuck abroad and are separated from their families due to the unexpected freeze on air travel imposed by many countries as precautionary measures to curb the spread of coronavirus.

The #BringBackUAEresidents hashtag was trending on Twitter on Monday as several residents and families requested the government to expedite their return to the UAE.