Ahead of general election, possibility of communal violence in India: US spymaster

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

Bengaluru, May 3: Renowned Kannada poet KS Nissar Ahmed passed away on May 3.

Winner of several awards including Karnataka Sahitya Akademi Award for Poetry, Rajyotsava Award, Padma Shri among others, Ahmed died at the age of 84

Srinagar, May 21: Two Border Security Force (BSF) personnel were killed and their weapons snatched by militants in the Pandach area on the outskirts of Srinagar yesterday.

According to IGP Kashmir Vijay Kumar, the two BSF jawans, who were on road surveillance deployment, were fired upon by two of the three terrorists on a motorcycle around 5:15 pm on the 90-Ft Road at Pandach, near Soura. 

They were critically injured and later succumbed to injuries. The terrorists escaped after taking away one AK rifle and one INSAS. Efforts were underway to trace the terrorists.

He said that two jawans, Constable Rana Mandol and Constable Ziaul Haque of ‘C’ company of 37th battalion, were injured and they later succumbed.

“The terrorists managed to take away the weapons of the martyrs. Area has been cordoned off and the search for the terrorists is on”, he said.

Residents around the spot said that the two soldiers were buying chicken for Iftar from a mutton dealer, around 300 meters away from their deployment location when three militants on a motorcycle stopped and opened fire on them.

Medical Superintendent SKIMS Dr Farooq Jan said that both the jawans were brought dead to the tertiary care hospital.

Senior Police officials said it was a “clear case of security lapse” as the two jawans had left their spot of deployment on Srinagar-Kargil-Leh road and gone to a shop 500 metres away on a different road.

They said that possibility of terror attacks and subsequently claims by the new outfit TRF had been flashed to all forces earlier this week.

The terror strike in the capital city has occurred a day after an encounter in downtown Srinagar, where two Hizbul Mujahideen militants, including the top wanted Junaid Sehrai, had been killed on Tuesday.

In the last one month, five Army and Police personnel and two militants had got killed in an encounter in Handwara area of Kupwara, a day before three CRPF men were killed in another attack.