Bengaluru abattoir raid: What’s the truth behind attack on Nandini?

Bengaluru, May 5: The movement of migrant labourers from Karnataka to other states has stopped temporarily, as few North Indian states are yet to give consent.

Revenue Minister R Ashok said that the state government will convince labourers to stay back and ensure free food supply at their camps. "Even if we allow them to travel, they will be quarantined for 14 days as soon as they reach their native states.

The labourers don't know about this and some states have not yet given permission for their return," Revenue Minister R Ashok said.

According to sources in CMO, the decision to convince the workers to stay back came after several major projects - both government and private - were affected by the mass migration of labourers to their native districts and states.

Ashok, along with S Suresh Kumar, Primary and Secondary Education minister and head of the group of ministers focusing on migrant workers, also visited labourers who had gathered demanding that they be allowed to return.

Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa will chair a meeting tomorrow and instruct builders under CREDAI to pay pending wages of labourers, provide food supply and ensure their safety, Ashok said, adding that all construction work by BBMP will also be taken up to help the labourers.

Bengaluru, Jul 24: A government doctor who was turned away by three private hospitals because he could not produce a coronavirus test result passed away today in Bengaluru. Dr Manjunath, who was a frontline COVID-19 doctor, was allegedly turned away by hospitals when he was extremely ill and struggling to breathe.

Dr Manjunath worked in the state Health and Family Welfare department and was based in Ramanagara district, around 50 km from Bengaluru.

D Randeep, a Special Officer with the Bengaluru municipal body BBMP, said that the hospitals that had refused to admit Dr Manjunath would be reported to the health department.

In June-end, Dr Manjunath went to Rajashekhar Hospital in JP Nagar, BGS Global Hospital in Kengeri and Sagar hospital in Kumaraswamy Layout. All three demanded to see his COVID-19 test result but those were still not in at the time, according to his family. His brother-in-law Nagendra is also a doctor with BBMP and in charge of allotting hospital beds, yet he was completely helpless when it came to his own relative.

He was finally admitted to Sagar hospital on June 25 when his family sat in protest on the footpath outside the Dayananda Sagar campus. He was placed on ventilator and later shifted to the Bangalore Medical College and Research Institute, where he died earlier today. The hospital says Dr Manjunath was discharged on July 9 because he wanted plasma therapy.

Six members of his family, including a 14-year-old, tested COVID-19 positive. Most of them have recovered.

Bengaluru has seen several cases of patients being turned away from hospitals in the city. Hospitals say they need Covid test results to know whether to admit patients in the coronavirus ICU or in the general section and to understand treatment protocol.

Mr Randeep said hospitals have been instructed to admit patients even without such a certificate. Notices have been sent to hospitals that fail to comply. The OPD of two private hospitals was sealed for 48 hours when they refused to admit a patient.

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.