'Change is Clearly Visible': PM Modi Sees India as $10 Trillion Economy with Countless Start-ups

Jun 9: Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants all 1.3 billion Indians to be “vocal for local” — meaning, to not just use domestically made products but also to promote them. As an overseas citizen living in Hong Kong, I’m doing my bit by very vocally demanding Indian mangoes on every trip to the grocery. But half the summer is gone, and not a single slice so far.

My loss is due to India’s COVID-19 lockdown, which has severely pinched logistics, a perennial challenge in the huge, infrastructure-starved country. But more worrying than the disruption is the fruity political response to it. Rather than being a wake-up call for fixing supply chains, the pandemic seems to be putting India on an isolationist course. Why?

Granted that the liberal view that trade is good and autarky bad isn’t exactly fashionable anywhere right now. What makes India’s lurch troublesome is that the pace and direction of economic nationalism may be set by domestic business interests. The Indian liberals, many of whom are Western-trained academics, authors and — at least until a few years ago — policy makers, want a more competitive economy. They will be powerless to prevent the slide.

Modi’s call for a self-reliant India has been echoed by Home Minister Amit Shah, the cabinet’s unofficial No. 2, in a television interview. If Indians don’t buy foreign-made goods, the economy will see a jump, he said. The strategy — although it’s too nebulous yet to call it that — has a geopolitical element. A military standoff with China is under way, apparently triggered by India’s completion of a road and bridge near the common border in the tense Himalayan region of Ladakh. It’s very expensive to fight even a limited war there. With India’s economy flattened by COVID, New Delhi may be looking for ways to restore the status quo and send Beijing a signal.

Economic boycotts, such as Chinese consumers’ rejection of Japanese goods over territorial disputes in the East China Sea, are well understood as statecraft. In these times, it’s not even necessary to name an enemy. An undercurrent of popular anger against China, the source of both the virus and India’s biggest bilateral trade deficit, is supposed to do the job. But is it ever that easy?

A hastily introduced policy to stock only local goods in police and paramilitary canteens became a farcical exercise after the list of banned items ended up including products by the local units of Colgate-Palmolive Co., Nestle SA, and Unilever NV, which have had significant Indian operations for between 60 and 90 years, as well as Dabur India Ltd., a New Delhi-based maker of Ayurveda brands. The since-withdrawn list demonstrates the practical difficulty of bureaucrats trying to find things in a globalized world that are 100% indigenous.

Free-trade champions fret that the prime minister, whom they saw as being on their side six years ago, is acting against their advice to dismantle statist controls on land, labor and capital to help make the country more competitive. Engage with the world more, not less, they caution. But Modi also has to satisfy the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the umbrella Hindu organisation that gets him votes. Its backbone of small traders, builders and businessmen — the RSS admits only men — was losing patience with the anemic economy even before the pandemic. Now, they’re in deep trouble, because India’s broken financial system won’t deliver even state-guaranteed loans to them.

The U.S.-China tensions — over trade, intellectual property, COVID responsibility and Hong Kong’s autonomy — offer a perfect backdrop. A dire domestic economy and trouble at the border provide the foreground. Big business will dial economic nationalism up and down to hit a trifecta of goals: Block competition from the People's Republic; make Western rivals fall in line and do joint ventures; and tap deep overseas capital markets. The first goal is being achieved with newly placed restrictions on investment from any country that shares a land border with India. The second aim is to be realized by corporate lobbying to influence India's whimsical economic policies. As for the third objective, with the regulatory environment becoming tougher for U.S.-listed Chinese companies like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., an opportunity may open up for Indian firms.

All this may bring India Shenzhen-style enclaves of manufacturing and trade, but it will concentrate economic power in fewer hands, something that worries liberals. They’re moved by the suffering of India’s low-wage workers, who have borne the brunt of the COVID shutdown. But when their vision of a more just society and fairer income distribution prompts them to make common cause with the ideological Left, they’re quickly repelled by the Marxist voodoo that all cash, property, bonds and real estate held by citizens or within the nation “must be treated as national resources available during this crisis.” Who will invest in a country that does that instead of just printing money?

At the same time, when liberals look to the business class, they see a sudden swelling of support for ideas like a universal basic income. They wonder if this isn’t a ploy by industry to outsource part of the cost of labor to the taxpayer. Slogans like Modi’s vocal-for-local stir the pot and thicken the confusion. The value-conscious Indian consumer couldn’t give two hoots for calls to buy Indian, but large firms will know how to exploit economic nationalism. One day soon, I’ll get my mangoes — from them.

New Delhi, Jun 25: India registered its worst single-day increase in COVID-19 cases on Thursday, recording more than 16,000 coronavirus infections, to push the overall tally to 4.73 lakh as the number of fatalities also jumped by 418, the Union Health Ministry said.

This was the sixth consecutive day when coronavirus cases increased by more than 14,000. On June 20, the country registered an increase of 14,516 cases. On June 21, the increase was of 15,413 cases; 14,821 cases on June 22; 14,933 cases on June 23; and 15,968 cases on June 24.

Consequently, India added 92,573 cases since June 20, and over 2.82 lakh this month since June 1.

The health ministry data updated at 8am on Thursday showed the daily tally increased by the highest-ever 16,922 cases to reach 4,73,105, while the total deaths climbed to 14,894 with 418 new fatalities.

However, according to the data, the recovery rate has improved to 57.43 per cent. The number of active cases stands at 1,86,514 while 2,71,696 people have recovered; one patient has migrated.

The total number of confirmed cases included foreigners.

According to ICMR, a total of 75,60,782 samples have been tested up to June 24 with 2,07,871 samples being tested on Wednesday.

Of the 418 new deaths, 208 were in Maharashtra, 64 in Delhi, 33 in Tamil Nadu, 25 in Gujarat, 14 in Karnataka, 11 in West Bengal, 10 each in Rajasthan and Haryana, nine in Madhya Pradesh, eight each in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, five each in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Uttarakhand.

Bihar, Goa and Jammu and Kashmir have reported one COVID-19 fatality each.

Of the total fatalities, Maharashtra tops the tally with 6,739 deaths followed by Delhi (2,365), Gujarat (1,735), Tamil Nadu (866), Uttar Pradesh (596), West Bengal (591), Madhya Pradesh (534), Rajasthan (375) and Telangana (225).

The COVID-19 death toll reached 188 in Haryana, 164 in Karnataka, 124 in Andhra Pradesh, 113 in Punjab, 88 in Jammu and Kashmir, 57 in Bihar, 35 in Uttarakhand, 22 in Kerala and 17 in Odisha.

Chhattisgarh has registered 12 deaths, Jharkhand 11, Assam and Puducherry nine each, Himachal Pradesh eight, Chandigarh six, Goa two and Meghalaya, Tripura and Ladakh have reported one fatality each.

More than 70 per cent deaths took place due to comorbidities, the health ministry said.

Maharashtra has reported the highest number of cases at 1,42,900 followed by Delhi at 70,390, Tamil Nadu at 67,468, Gujarat at 28,943, Uttar Pradesh at 19,557, Rajasthan at 16,009 and West Bengal at 15,173, according to ministry data.

The number of COVID-19 cases has gone up to 12,448 in Madhya Pradesh, 12,010 in Haryana, 10,444 in Telangana,10,331 in Andhra Pradesh and 10,118 in Karnataka.

It has risen to 8,209 in Bihar, 6,422 in Jammu and Kashmir, 6,198 in Assam and 5,752 in Odisha. Punjab has reported 4,627 novel coronavirus infections so far, while Kerala has 3,603 cases.

A total of 2,623 people have been infected by the virus in Uttarakhand, 2,419 in Chhattisgarh, 2,207 in Jharkhand, 1,259 in Tripura, 970 in Manipur, 951 in Goa, 941 in Ladakh and 806 in Himachal Pradesh.

Puducherry has recorded 461 COVID-19 cases, Chandigarh has 420, Nagaland has 347, Arunachal Pradesh has 158 and Mizoram has 142 cases.

Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu together have reported 120 COVID-19 cases.

Sikkim has 84, Andaman and Nicobar Islands has registered 56 infections so far while Meghalaya has recorded 46 cases.

"Our figures are being reconciled with the ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research)," the ministry said, adding 8,493 cases are being reassigned to states.

State-wise distribution is subject to further verification and reconciliation, it added.