Decoding resounding BJP victory

executive@coastaldigest.com (A K Verma)
March 12, 2017

Mar 12: The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) registered a landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Uttarakhand, capturing significant space in Manipur where it had no presence while Goa remains close. But, as expected, the Akali Dal-BJP alliance lost Punjab where it had already served two terms and faced anti-incumbency owing to drug menace, arms traffic and arbitrary police and general administration.

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In UP, the BJP's resounding win of 325 seats with 41% votes with allies, Apna Dal (AD) and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), came as a surprise to all. It far surpassed the party's Mission-265 target and was really Herculean as compared to 2012 Assembly polls when it secured 47 seats and 15% votes. Thus, it won 278 more seats and 26% more votes as compared to 2012. How could the BJP do this?

Constituency transformation: The BJP fundamentally transformed its constituency. The party had been touted as upper caste-urban-middle class-traders party, a constituency that comprises of just 19-20% of electorate. It tried to go for 'sabka saath, sabka vikas,' a catchphrase for inclusive politics. The party included more backward, most backward and Ati-Dalit sections hitherto excluded from party constituency.

According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) data, a massive 32% more backwards, 37% most-backwards and 21% Ati-Dalits have shifted to the BJP since 2012. There appeared to be a democratic upsurge in UP that gave a massive win to the BJP.

Rural connect: Prime Minister Narendra Modi established a rapport with the rural people. Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi used to mock him as heading a 'suit-boot ki sarkaar' and playing to the rich. But Modi bounced back with a massive rural push as he went for neem-coating of urea making it unfit for industrial use, introduced soil health card, provided farmers security by implementing the Fasal Bima Yojna (crop insurance), launched village toilets scheme and provided free LPG to village women under the Ujjwala scheme.

Further, during campaign speeches, he assured villagers that he would personally guarantee that the new BJP government in UP waived agricultural loans of small and marginal farmers in its first meeting and purchase their agricultural produce at minimum support price. What else could the farmers desire? That is the reason why 32% rural people voted BJP as against 14% in 2012.

Robust social engineering: To capture the largest social segment in UP — the OBCs — the BJP roped them into the leadership structure and offered them a large number of tickets in this Assembly polls. The non-Yadav OBCs in UP, called more-backwards and most-backwards, were not aligned to any particular party.

The BJP appointed Keshav Prasad Maurya from the most-backward as its state president and Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal, representing more-backwards, in the Modi cabinet. It also gave them 50% share in party tickets. This marginalised community was excited at getting a political space greater than their share in population. That positively impacted the BJP's victory in all constituencies.

Many failed to pay attention to the two marginal parties with which the BJP had alliance in UP – AD and SBSP — and calculate their electoral impact. Because of AD alliance, more-backwards, especially the Kurmis, massively shifted to the BJP. The SBSP is a party of Rajbhars, the people of tribal origin and wrongly placed in the most-backward category. They had polled five lakh votes in the contested constituencies in 2012 Assembly polls and their average comes to about 9,000 votes per contested constituency. That also made substantial difference to the BJP as add-on votes.

Policy initiatives: The BJP has also taken several policy initiatives in the domain of social security, economy and foreign policy. Modi's growing international stature, tough and fearless stand against Pakistan, and several bilateral and multilateral international collaborations beneficial for the country have not gone unnoticed by the people. His several schemes like Atal Pension Yojna, Jan Dhan Yojna, direct transfer of subsidy to the bank accounts of poor, Pradhaan Mantri Grameen Awas Yojna etc have greatly excited the people.

He also initiated schemes to tackle unemployment among youth through youth entrepreneurship in the form of Make in India, startup schemes, skill development etc. The youth of UP was unhappy because of the casteism in appointments and greatly expected the BJP government to undo that aberration.

Mayawati's Muslim outreach: There was much hype about BSP supremo Mayawati's Dalit-Muslim social engineering replacing her earlier Dalit-Brahmin social engineering of the 2007 fame. But, the BSP's poor performance demonstrates its complete failure. Mayawati did not understand that such social coalitions are not mechanical processes that you terminate at will and go for another. These experiments take time and should be not only a matter of political convenience but must also reflect in the coming together of the two communities at grassroots.

Secondly, Maya¬wati lost her upper caste votes after the infamous Dayashankar Singh (BJP) episode (he called Mayawati a prostitute), following which Naseemuddin (BSP) made vulgar remarks about the wife and daughter of Dayashankar. It not only pushed Thakurs but the entire upper caste, including Brahmins, away from Mayawati and that is clearly reflected in the CSDS data. Thirdly, Maya¬wati also lost Dalit votes, especially non-Jatavs Pasi, Valmiki, Kori, Khatik etc as she had been unfair to them.

SP-Cong alliance: The SP-Congress alliance was a disaster for both parties. It was formed on the premise of transferability of votes to each other on the Bihar model but did not materialise on ground. It may have been just a political experiment for a Congress revival as the party had no stakes in UP. For Akhilesh, however, it turned out to be a very unwise decision because he might have managed near majority on his own owing to his clean and development-centric image.

The alliance was suicidal for the Congress because it took a big risk not worthy of a national party. One, by ceding 298 seats to the SP, it literally offered its Muslim vote share on a platter in those constituencies, a mistake the party committed in 1996 when it went for an alliance with the BSP and offered its Dalit votes to the party. Secondly, the Congress did not think big for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This Assembly poll was a chance to galvanise its party apparatus and cadre for the coming LS poll. By not contesting in 298 constituencies, the Congress' organisational apparatus might disintegrate beyond repair.

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Agencies
March 25,2020

In an unprecedented crisis despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi assuring the continuation of essential services like food and groceries, online marketplaces like Flipkart and Amazon along with delivery platforms like Bigbasket, Grofers and FreshToHomes hit a major blockade on Wednesday as local authorities shut warehouses and sent delivery boys back, even harassed them.

Millions of people across cities were left helpless at homes as essential items like fruits and vegetables, dairy and milk, meat and fish etc did not reach their doors despite placing orders well in advance. Later, the orders went dry.

While Grofers' warehouse in Faridabad was closed by the local law enforcement agencies, Bigbasket complained that the police stopped its delivery partners and "some of them were even beaten up by for no fault of theirs".

"We are not operational due to restrictions imposed by local authorities on movement of goods in spite of clear guidelines provided by central authorities to enable essential services. We are working with the authorities to be back soon,' Bigbasket tweeted.

In a statement to IANS, Bigbasket said that it will help to have better coordination between the Centre and state, and between the state and local police to "ensure that our delivery vans and bikes don't get stopped by the police. Bigbasket and bb daily are not taking new orders".

Furious people stormed the social media platforms, writing their plight to NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant on Twitter.

"Sir, all e-commerce are down. Believe me I tried everything (Grofers, Bigbasket, Flipkart, Amazon, Big Bazaar), no delivery till 31st March or Server Down or No Service. Need to think how we can enable them through digital India," tweeted one user.

Kant tweeted back to Bigbasket: "They should give me specifics - State & location. I will act on it by getting in touch with concerned authorities & sorting it out. Govt guidelines exempt them. We will ensure that citizens are not impacted".

Kant also responded to Grofers: "Cold storages & Warehouses as well as delivery of all essentials goods including food, pharma thru E-Commerce are exempted under MHA order. I have spoken to CS & DGP, Haryana . They have taken immediate action to ensure that supply chains efficiently function for the citizens".

The subscription-based hyperlocal delivery startup FreshToHome sent messages to its customers, saying that despite the government declaring food delivery as essential, "we are facing hardships in continuing our operations".

"Please bear with us as we are working hard to unblock local authority hurdles," said the FreshToHome team.

Reports later surfaced that the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) has initiated talks with the state Chief Secretaries asking them not to restrict movement of people engaged in home delivery of essential items, mentioned in the list of exempted items circulated by the Home Ministry.

Meanwhile, Flipkart said it has temporarily suspended its operations and services - including grocery items. The marketplace has decided to halt all orders from March 25 for all three supply chains -- groceries, non-large goods and large items.

"Flipkart has temporarily suspended orders as we assess the possibilities of operating in the lockdown. We are prioritising the safety of our delivery executives and seeking the support of the local governments and police authorities to meet the needs of our customers as they stay home during this lockdown," Rajneesh Kumar, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, Flipkart, said in a statement.

E-commerce giant Amazon said the company has to "temporarily stop taking orders and disable shipments for lower-priority products.

"For all pending customer orders on lower-priority products, we are reaching out to customers and giving them a choice to cancel their orders, and receive a refund for prepaid items," said the company.

Witnessing a surge in demand, supermarket chain Biz Bazaar entered the fray, with launching doorstep delivery services in major cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Gurugram.

However, within no time, Big Bazaar was flooded with calls, forcing the company to issue a statement, saying that "In light of the recent announcement, we are receiving an unprecedented number of requests for doorstep delivery. There could be a delay due to the restrictions on movements".

Already battling massive surge in demand, the online delivery platforms faced other issues too, including zero access to several high-rises across the country which have gone under complete lockdown with all entry and exit gates locked.

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Agencies
June 27,2020

Mumbai, Jun 27: The Bombay High Court observed that COVID-19 patients from poor and indigent sections cannot be expected to produce documentary proof to avail subsidised or free treatment while getting admitted to hospitals.

The court on Friday was hearing a plea filed by seven residents of a slum rehabilitation building in Bandra, who had been charged ₹ 12.5 lakh by K J Somaiya Hospital for COVID-19 treatment between April 11 and April 28.

The bench of Justices Ramesh Dhanuka and Madhav Jamdar directed the hospital to deposit ₹10 lakh in the court.

The petitioners had borrowed money and managed to pay ₹10 lakh out of ₹12.5 lakh that the hospital had demanded, after threatening to halt their discharge if they failed to clear the bill, counsel Vivek Shukla informed the court.

According to the plea, the petitioners were also overcharged for PPE kits and unused services.

On June 13, the court had directed the state charity commissioner to probe if the hospital had reserved 20% beds for poor and indigent patients and provided free or subsidised treatment to them.

Last week, the joint charity commissioner had informed the court that although the hospital had reserved such beds, it had treated only three poor or indigent persons since the lockdown.

It was unfathomable that the hospital that claimed to have reserved 90 beds for poor and indigent patients had treated only three such persons during the pandemic, advocate Shukla said.

He further argued that COVID-19 patients, who are in distress, cannot be expected to produce income certificate and such documents as proof.

However, senior advocate Janak Dwarkadas, who represented the hospital, said the petitioners did not belong to economically weak or indigent categories and had not produced documents to prove the same.

A person who is suffering from a disease like COVID-19 cannot be expected to produce certificates from a tehsildar or social welfare officer before seeking admission in the hospital, the bench noted and asked the hospital to deposit ₹10 lakh in court within two weeks.

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Agencies
June 19,2020

Denser places, assumed by many to be more conducive to the spread of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, are not linked to higher infection rates, say researchers.

The study, led by Johns Hopkins University, published in the Journal of the American Planning Association, also found that dense areas were associated with lower COVID-19 death rates.

"These findings suggest that urban planners should continue to practice and advocate for compact places rather than sprawling ones, due to the myriad well-established benefits of the former, including health benefits," says study lead author Shima Hamidi from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in the US.

For their analysis, the researchers examined SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and COVID-19 death rates in 913 metropolitan counties in the US.

When other factors such as race and education were taken into account, the authors found that county density was not significantly associated with county infection rate.

The findings also showed that denser counties, as compared to more sprawling ones, tended to have lower death rates--possibly because they enjoyed a higher level of development including better health care systems.

On the other hand, the research found that higher coronavirus infection and COVID-19 mortality rates in counties are more related to the larger context of metropolitan size in which counties are located.

Large metropolitan areas with a higher number of counties tightly linked together through economic, social, and commuting relationships are the most vulnerable to the pandemic outbreaks.

According to the researchers, recent polls suggest that many US citizens now consider an exodus from big cities likely, possibly due to the belief that more density equals more infection risk.

Some government officials have posited that urban density is linked to the transmissibility of the virus.

"The fact that density is unrelated to confirmed virus infection rates and inversely related to confirmed COVID-19 death rates is important, unexpected, and profound," said Hamidi.

"It counters a narrative that, absent data and analysis, would challenge the foundation of modern cities and could lead to a population shift from urban centres to suburban and exurban areas," Hamidi added.

The analysis found that after controlling for factors such as metropolitan size, education, race, and age, doubling the activity density was associated with an 11.3 per cent lower death rate.

The authors said that this is possibly due to faster and more widespread adoption of social distancing practices and better quality of health care in areas of denser population.

The researchers concluded that a higher county population, a higher proportion of people age 60 and up, a lower proportion of college-educated people, and a higher proportion of African Americans were all associated with a greater infection rate and mortality rate.

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