At Delhi-UP border many scrambling to reach home for Eid

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

New Delhi, Mar 27: The Delhi government has arranged to serve lunch and dinner to the needy in 325 schools in Delhi, chief minister Arvind Kejriwal said on Friday amid reports of people going hungry without access to food during the ongoing nationwide lockdown.

From Saturday, arrangements will be put in place to feed about four lakh people daily at different centres across Delhi, he said addressing the media. "We have made arrangements to provide lunch and dinner in 325 schools. Around 500 people will be provided with food in all these schools. So far we were providing food to 20,000 people daily, the number will now increase to around 2,00,000 from today."

He also said that "from tomorrow, we'll be providing food to 4,00,000 people daily. We're distributing the centres across Delhi."

Stating that the total number of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in Delhi is now 39, Kejriwal said "We are ready to face any challenge.".

"There are a total of 39 coronavirus positive cases in Delhi as of today, of which 29 cases are of those who had come from outside and were kept in quarantine and 10 of these were cases of local transmission," said Kejriwal at a press conference.

The Chief Minister said that a team of 5 doctors has been set up to look into the preparedness needed to deal with an increase in the number of positive cases for coronavirus in future.

He said, "The team of doctors under the chairmanship of Dr Shiv Kumar Sarin, the head of Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences, presented a detailed report on March 26 on the preparedness needed to deal with a situation if the number of positive cases for coronavirus increases."

"The report has categorized three situations - if the number of positive cases increases to 100 per day, 500 per day and 1000 per day," he said while adding that the doctors have clearly stated what preparedness should be taken for each situation including the number of ventilators, isolation beds, doctors and nurses required.

He also cited concerns raised by chief ministers of several states including Jharkhand's Hemant Soren and West Bengal's Mamata Banerjee.

Kejriwal said "we consider all those living in Delhi as Delhiites and everyone will be taken care of."
The number of cases tested positive for coronavirus rose to 724 on Friday, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.