Did CIA know about Indira Gandhi’s association plot?

Agencies
August 9, 2017

Washington, Aug 9: Nearly two years before the assassination of Indira Gandhi, the CIA had suggested that her son Rajiv Gandhi may not succeed her in the event of her sudden death because he was "politically immature" and had "failed toexcite either the party or the public", according to a secret report declassified by the US agency.

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in a report dated January 14, 1983, noted that the Congress Party would become weaker in such circumstances.

However, the sequence of events after the then premier's assassination in October 1984 proved otherwise as she was succeeded by Rajiv, who within a few months was re-elected with an unprecedented mandate.

A sanitised copy of the report 'India in the Mid-1980s: Goals and Challenges' was released by the CIA under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), which is similar to India's Right to Information Act.

Running into more than 30 pages, the document discussed the prospects of India in the mid-1980s and looked into various political scenarios, which among others included re- election of Indira Gandhi in the next general election in 1985 with a slim majority and what happens in the case of her sudden death.

"In the event of (Indira) Gandhi's sudden death, Raiiv Gandhi, working closely with President Zail Singh, would be one of the major figures involved in the selection of a successor. His own chances of being elevated to the office right now are uncertain, in part because of his political immaturity and because of his still junior status," the CIA had said in its secret report declassified in December.

"Raiiv's prospects would probably improve the longer Indira Gandhi remained in office. However, even if he were to become prime minister, his hold on the reins of power could beshortlived unless he unexpectedly emerges as a superb political strategist like his mother or develops a party organisation," the report noted.

"Other possible candidates which party factional leaders might consider are such cabinet-level statesmen-politicians as Defence Minister R Venkataraman, Foreign Minister P V Narasimha Rao, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, and Industry Minister Narain Dutt Tiwari," it said.

Intelligence agencies, globally, are known for talking about and discussing various political scenarios in the country of their interest.

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Agencies
February 14,2020

Lucknow, Feb 14: Uttar Pradesh doctor Kafeel Khan was on Friday booked under the National Security Act (NSA) over his alleged anti-CAA speech at Aligarh Muslim University on December 12, 2019.

The Uttar Pradesh slapped NSA on Kafeel Khan on Friday even as the doctor waited to be released from jail despite being granted bail on Monday in connection with his alleged inflammatory speech.

SP Crime Dr Arvind said that there were sufficient grounds to book the doctor under NSA.

The suspended pediatrician, Kafeel Khan, was arrested for allegedly delivering a controversial speech during Anti-CAA protests on December 12 at the Aligarh Muslim University or AMU. While he was granted bail on Monday, his family members claimed on Thursday that he was yet to be released.

Dr Kafeel Khan's brother Adeel Ahmed Khan had issued a statement saying that despite being granted bail Mathura jail authorities had not honoured the court's order.

Dr Kafeel Khan was arrested by the UP Special Task Force from Mumbai on January 29 for participating anti-CAA protest at AMU. A case was registered against him at the Civil Lines police station here for promoting enmity between different religions.

After his arrest in Mumbai, Dr Khan was brought to Aligarh, from where he was shifted to the district jail in neighbouring Mathura.

According to police, this was done as a precautionary measure in view of the anti-CAA protests on the AMU campus and at the Eidgah grounds in the old city. Police had said that the Dr Khan's presence in the Aligarh jail could have aggravated the law and order situation in the city.

The doctor was earlier arrested for his alleged role in the death of over 60 children in one week at the BRD Medical College in Gorakhpur in August 2017. Short supply of oxygen at the children's ward was blamed at that time for the deaths.

About two years later, a state government probe cleared Khan of all major charges, prompting him to seek an apology from the Yogi Adityanath government.

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Agencies
July 3,2020

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

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Agencies
August 3,2020

New York, Aug 3: The number of coronavirus cases confirmed all over the world has surpassed 18 million, while the global COVID-19 death toll stands at over 687,000 according to data from the Johns Hopkins University's Coronavirus Resource Center.

As of 06:00 Moscow time on Monday (03:00 GMT), there are 18,017,556 confirmed coronavirus cases in the world. The global death toll from COVID-19 stands at 687,930. The number of recovered individuals stands at 10,649,108.

The United States remains the country with the largest number of cases (4,665,932) and the highest COVID-19 death toll (154,841), according to the latest data from the Johns Hopkins University.

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