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The ILO has warned that if another Covid-19 wave hits in the second half of 2020, there would be global working-hour loss of 11.9 percent - equivalent to the loss of 340 million full-time jobs.

According to the 5th edition of International Labour Organisation (ILO) Monitor: Covid-19 and the world of work, the recovery in the global labour market for the rest of the year will be uncertain and incomplete.

The report said that there was a 14 percent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs.

The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated. The highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels even in the best scenario, the agency warned.

The baseline model – which assumes a rebound in economic activity in line with existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace restrictions and a recovery in consumption and investment – projects a decrease in working hours of 4.9 percent (equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs) compared to last quarter of 2019.

It says that in the pessimistic scenario, the situation in the second half of 2020 would remain almost as challenging as in the second quarter.

“Even if one assumes better-tailored policy responses – thanks to the lessons learned throughout the first half of the year – there would still be a global working-hour loss of 11.9 per cent at the end of 2020, or 340 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019,” it said.

The pessimistic scenario assumes a second pandemic wave and the return of restrictions that would significantly slow recovery. The optimistic scenario assumes that workers’ activities resume quickly, significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation. With this exceptionally fast recovery, the global loss of working hours would fall to 1.2 per cent (34 million full-time jobs).

The agency said that under the three possible scenarios for recovery in the next six months, “none” sees the global job situation in better shape than it was before lockdown measures began.

“This is why we talk of an uncertain but incomplete recovery even in the best of scenarios for the second half of this year. So there is not going to be a simple or quick recovery,” ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said.

The new figures reflect the worsening situation in many regions over the past weeks, especially in developing economies. Regionally, working time losses for the second quarter were: Americas (18.3 percent), Europe and Central Asia (13.9 percent), Asia and the Pacific (13.5 percent), Arab States (13.2 percent), and Africa (12.1 percent).

The vast majority of the world’s workers (93 per cent) continue to live in countries with some sort of workplace closures, with the Americas experiencing the greatest restrictions.

During the first quarter of the year, an estimated 5.4 percent of global working hours (equivalent to 155 million full-time jobs) were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. Working- hour losses for the second quarter of 2020 relative to the last quarter of 2019 are estimated to reach 14 per cent worldwide (equivalent to 400 million full-time jobs), with the largest reduction (18.3 per cent) occurring in the Americas.

The ILO Monitor also found that women workers have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, creating a risk that some of the modest progress on gender equality made in recent decades will be lost, and that work-related gender inequality will be exacerbated.

The severe impact of Covid-19 on women workers relates to their over-representation in some of the economic sectors worst affected by the crisis, such as accommodation, food, sales and manufacturing.

Globally, almost 510 million or 40 percent of all employed women work in the four most affected sectors, compared to 36.6 percent of men, it said.

The report said that women also dominate in the domestic work and health and social care work sectors, where they are at greater risk of losing their income and of infection and transmission and are also less likely to have social protection.

The pre-pandemic unequal distribution of unpaid care work has also worsened during the crisis, exacerbated by the closure of schools and care services.

Even as countries have adopted policy measures with unprecedented speed and scope, the ILO Monitor highlights some key challenges ahead, including finding the right balance and sequencing of health, economic and social and policy interventions to produce optimal sustainable labour market outcomes; implementing and sustaining policy interventions at the necessary scale when resources are likely to be increasingly constrained and protecting and promoting the conditions of vulnerable, disadvantaged and hard-hit groups to make labour markets fairer and more equitable.

“The decisions we adopt now will echo in the years to come and beyond 2030. Although countries are at different stages of the pandemic and a lot has been done, we need to redouble our efforts if we want to come out of this crisis in a better shape than when it started,” Ryder said. 

Bengaluru, Mar 4: With details of the Bengaluru links of the Covid-19-positive patient from Hyderabad emerging, state health authorities on Tuesday got down to tracking any infection trail he may have left behind before heading home.

Schools from southeast Bengaluru asked parents to send students with masks and hand sanitizers or keep them at home if they had fever. Medical shops in Bengaluru reported panic buying of masks and hand sanitizers.

Two persons with no symptoms — the Hyderabad man’s flatmate in city, and a colleague — reported at Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Chest Diseases and put under watch at the isolation ward. Their test results are expected on Wednesday.

The authorities tracked down 71 people who had come in contact with the Hyderabad man and put them under surveillance. The 24-year-old techie had travelled to Dubai for work on February 15 and returned to Bengaluru on February 20. He attended work on February 20 and 21 before taking a bus to Hyderabad. His flat has been sealed for sanitizing.

According to Telangana officials, at least 36 of the 88 people who came in contact with the techie are showing some symptoms of Covid-19.

Contrary to reports, the infected person was not tested at the KIA since guidelines don’t say flyers from Dubai must be screened. WHO guidelines say identification of the infected person should not be revealed. However, WhatsApp groups were flooded with messages on where the infected person lived and details of his flatmate.

Global oil markets remained under intense pressure on Tuesday, with Brent crude dropping below $20 per barrel for the first time in 18 years while other major benchmarks across the world tumbled. 

Brent, the international crude marker, slipped to $18.10, indicating that markets see no immediate let-up to the collapse in oil demand that sent some US oil benchmarks plunging under $0 for the first time on Monday, leaving producers paying for buyers to take their oil away while available storage is scarce.

Coronavirus has sent the oil sector into a state of crisis, with lockdowns implemented by authorities to smother the outbreak slashing demand for crude by as much as a third.

Contracts for the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for delivery next month tumbled as low as minus $40 a barrel on Monday. Analysts at Citi warned that “if global storage worsens more quickly, Brent could chase WTI down to the bottom”.

The collapse in the May WTI contract was partly a technical product of the fact that it expires on Tuesday, meaning trading volumes were low and making the contract for June delivery more noteworthy, analysts said. That contract held above $20 a barrel on Monday but slid as much as 42 per cent on Tuesday to trade at lows of $11.79, suggesting the blowout in the May contract was more than a blip and that the entire global oil market faced challenges.

Goldman Sachs analysts said the June contact was likely to face downward pressure in the coming weeks, pointing to the “still unresolved market surplus”.

“As storage becomes saturated, price volatility will remain exceptionally high in coming weeks,” they said. “But with ultimately a finite amount of storage left to fill, production will soon need to fall sizeably to bring the market into balance, finally setting the stage for higher prices once demand gradually recovers.”

Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, said it was likely that “storage this time next month will be even more of an issue, given the surplus environment”.

“And so in the absence of a meaningful demand recovery, negative prices could return for June,” he added.

European equities traded lower, partly dragged down by weaker energy stocks. The continent-wide Stoxx 600 was down 1.9 per cent, with its oil and gas sub-index dropping 3.3 per cent. In London the FTSE shed 1.7 per cent, while Frankfurt’s Dax slid 2.3 per cent. 

Equities were also broadly lower in Asia, with futures tipping US stocks to fall 1 per cent when trading in New York begins later.

On Wall Street overnight, the S&P 500 closed down 1.8 per cent, partly because of weakness in energy shares, but also due to increased pessimism over the time it will take for countries to emerge from lockdowns.

In fixed income, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell 0.03 percentage points to 0.585 per cent as investors retreated to the safety of the debt.