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Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

New Delhi, May 30: The Congress on Friday described the first year of the Modi government as a "year of disappointment, disastrous management and diabolical pain".

Congress leader K C Venugopal said the six years of the Modi dispensation have seen fraying of bonds of empathy, fraternity and brotherhood with increase in acts of communal and sectarian violence.

Congress chief spokesperson Randeep Surjewala said that at the end of six years, it appears the Modi government is at war with its people and is inflicting wounds on them, instead of healing them.

"It is inflicting wounds on Mother India," he said.

"This government is trying to fill coffers of the select rich and is inflicting pain on the poor," Surjewala said.

On the BJP's charge of the Congress playing politics over the COVID-19 crisis, Venugopal said the opposition party did not indulge in any politics and gave suggestions instead.

"Being a responsible opposition, it is our duty to raise the problems faced by the common people. As opposition, we highlighted the failures of the government," he said.

Venugopal said the government "is totally insensitive" to the plight of migrant labourers and farmers.

Surjewala also demanded that a virtual session of Parliament be convened immediately to discuss pressing issues and the due process be set in motion for holding of meetings of various parliamentary committees.

Modi and his cabinet had taken oath on this day last year for a second term in office.

Washington, Jun 11: Observing that historically India has been a tolerant, respectful country for all religions, a top Trump administration official has said the US is "very concerned" about what is happening in India over religious freedom.

The comments by Samuel Brownback, Ambassador-At-Large for International Religious Freedom, came hours after the release of the "2019 International Religious Freedom Report" on Wednesday.

Mandated by the US Congress, the report documenting major instances of violation of religious freedom across the world was released by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the State Department.

India has previously rejected the US religious freedom report, saying it sees no locus standi for a foreign government to pronounce on the state of its citizens' constitutionally protected rights.

"We do remain very concerned about what's taking place in India. It's historically just been a very tolerant, respectful country of religions, of all religions," Mr Brownback said during a phone call with foreign journalists on Wednesday.

The trend lines have been troubling in India because it is such a religious subcontinent and seeing a lot more communal violence, Mr Brownback said. "We're seeing a lot more difficulty. I think really they need to have a - I would hope they would have an - interfaith dialogue starting to get developed at a very high level in India, and then also deal with the specific issues that we identified as well," he said.

"It really needs a lot more effort on this topic in India, and my concern is, too, that if those efforts are not put forward, you're going to see a growth in violence and increased difficulty within the society writ large," said the top American diplomat.

Responding to a question, Mr Brownback said he hoped minority faiths are not blamed for the COVID-19 spread and that they would have access to healthcare amid the crisis.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has criticised any form of discrimination, saying the COVID-19 pandemic affects everyone equally. "COVID-19 does not see race, religion, colour, caste, creed, language or border before striking. Our response and conduct thereafter should attach primacy to unity and brotherhood," PM Modi said in a post on LinkedIn in February.

The government, while previously rejecting the US religious freedom report, had said: "India is proud of its secular credentials, its status as the largest democracy and a pluralistic society with a longstanding commitment to tolerance and inclusion".

"The Indian Constitution guarantees fundamental rights to all its citizens, including its minority communities… We see no locus standi for a foreign entity/government to pronounce on the state of our citizens' constitutionally protected rights," the Foreign Ministry said in June last year.

According to the Home Ministry, 7,484 incidents of communal violence took place between 2008 and 2017, in which more than 1,100 people were killed.